Kadokawa

9468.TLOW

Virtual Events / IP Publisher · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-26

¥3,618+1.69%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

HOLD — FY2026 was a structural reset, not a secular decline. Revenue ¥282.9B (+1.8%) but OP -51.3% and NI -82.7% due to anime impairment + publishing restructuring charges. FY2027 recovery guided: Revenue ¥300.3B (+6.1%), OP ¥10.1B (+24.7%), NI ¥5.8B (+353.7%). Critical catalyst: FromSoftware has TWO major releases in H2 2026 — 'The Duskbloods' (Nintendo Switch 2 multiplayer exclusive) and 'Elden Ring: Tarnished Edition' (NS2 port) — both confirmed for 2026. Sony full acquisition abandoned (too costly at ¥675B); instead Sony bought 10% stake for ¥50B (Jan 2025) becoming largest shareholder. Strategic partnership: Sony adapts Kadokawa IPs into live-action films/TV and expands game publishing globally. Analyst consensus: 7 analysts, avg revenue ¥295.8B FY2027, EPS surge to ¥70.10 (+706% YoY as one-time charges reverse).

Risk

CONCEPT STOCK FLAG: VTuber-attributable revenue <<5% of total (Niconico/Dwango = ~20% revenue but direct VTuber exposure minimal — platform aging, losing share to YouTube). FY2026 NI near-zero (¥1.278B) distorts TTM PE to ~73x. Forward PE ~38x on recovery assumption. FromSoftware game delays or underperformance = biggest risk (gaming segment drives IP valuation). Sony relationship purely strategic — no consolidation benefits. Niconico structural decline continues with no turnaround catalyst. Annual dividend ¥30/share maintained (thin earnings coverage).

Monitoring Trigger

The Duskbloods and Elden Ring NS2 launch performance (H2 2026): if either title reaches top-10 Nintendo sales charts, UPGRADE conviction. FY2027 Q1 results (Jul/Aug 2026): if OP recovery on track toward ¥10.1B annual target, HOLD confirmed. If Sony strategic partnership leads to concrete IP adaptation announcements (e.g., Elden Ring live-action, FromSoftware IP film deal), UPGRADE. If Niconico MAU falls below 5M monthly actives, reduce position. Exit trigger: FY2027 OP misses guidance by >30%.

Key Dates

2026-08earningsFY2027 Q1 results — first read on OP recovery trajectory toward ¥10.1B full-year target

2026-11earningsFY2027 H1 results — confirm H2 game releases boosting gaming segment

2026-H2catalystThe Duskbloods Nintendo Switch 2 launch (FromSoftware) — biggest gaming catalyst in FY2027

2026-H2catalystElden Ring: Tarnished Edition NS2 — extends IP to new platform audience

Update History

2026-05-26evolveHOLD

View report →

FY2026 disaster: OP -51.3% (¥8.1B), NI -82.7% (¥1.28B) — anime impairment + restructuring. But FY2027 recovery guided: OP +24.7%, NI +353.7%. Sony full acquisition abandoned; 10% strategic stake confirmed (Jan 2025, ¥50B). Two FromSoftware 2026 releases confirmed: The Duskbloods (NS2 exclusive) + Elden Ring Tarnished Edition (NS2). Market cap ~¥482B, forward PE ~38x. CONCEPT STOCK FLAG maintained (VTuber <<5% revenue).

pe:25.9x~73x TTM (NI collapsed from impairment)op_margin:6.0%2.9%roe:4.1%~0.3%market_cap:¥461B~¥482Bthesis:Niconico VTuber platform + potential Sony acquisitionFY2026 reset + FY2027 recovery + FromSoftware 2026 catalysts + Sony 10% stakemonitoring_trigger:If Sony acquisition completes...The Duskbloods / Elden Ring NS2 launch performance; Sony IP deal announcementssupply_chain:2 entries (Niconico, FromSoftware generic)4 entries (+Nintendo/Duskbloods confirmed, +Sony 10% stake confirmed, +Elden Ring NS2)key_dates:2026-05-14 earnings (past)H2 2026 Duskbloods launch, Q1/H1 FY2027 earnings

Key Metrics

~73x TTM (NI distorted by FY2026 one-time impairment/restructuring)

~38x FY2027 (analyst consensus; company guidance implies ~83x on ¥5.8B NI)

Fwd PE

N/A

P/B

~0.3% (FY2026 NI ¥1.28B vs equity ~¥400B; structurally low)

ROE

2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥8.1B / Rev ¥282.9B; normalized FY2027 guidance: 3.4%)

Op Margin

~4%

D/E

~0.9% (¥30/share at ¥3,257)

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

~¥482B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Publication	¥90B	32%	Light novels, manga, books — restructuring underway
Animation & Live Action	¥76B	27%	Anime production, IP licensing — impairment charges hit FY2026
Game	¥67B	24%	FromSoftware (Elden Ring, Armored Core, The Duskbloods 2026)
Web Services (Niconico)	¥50B	18%	Niconico streaming, virtual events — declining vs YouTube

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Dwango/Niconico users	Streaming platform for VTuber content	Still active as Japan's legacy streaming platform that pioneered VTuber culture. Declining MAU but still a key historical VTuber distribution channel.(2026-05)
confirmed	Nintendo (Switch 2 platform)	FromSoftware exclusive — The Duskbloods multiplayer action RPG	The Duskbloods confirmed Nintendo Switch 2 exclusive for 2026 release. FromSoftware CEO Hidetaka Miyazaki developing new IP. Kadokawa confirmed 2026 release window Feb 2026.[source](2026-02)
confirmed	Nintendo Switch 2 owners (global)	Elden Ring: Tarnished Edition — NS2 port	Elden Ring Tarnished Edition for Nintendo Switch 2 confirmed alongside The Duskbloods for 2026. Extends FromSoftware IP to new platform audience.[source](2026-02)
confirmed	Sony Group (6758.T)	Strategic IP partnership — 10% equity stake (¥50B, Jan 2025)	Sony became Kadokawa's largest shareholder (12M+ shares, ¥50B). Full acquisition abandoned (cost ~¥675B = too high). Sony will adapt Kadokawa IPs into live-action films/TV and co-publish games globally. Partnership preserves Kadokawa independence while gaining Sony's global distribution.[source](2025-01)

Sources & References

↗Stock Analysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/9468/↗Kadokawa IRhttps://ir.kadokawa.co.jp/en/↗Simply Wall St — analyst consensushttps://simplywall.st/stocks/jp/media/tse-9468/kadokawa-shares/news/kadokawa-corporation-just-missed-earnings-but-analysts-have-1 ↗Nintendo Wire — The Duskbloods 2026https://nintendowire.com/news/2026/02/12/fromsoftware-parent-company-kadokawa-states-the-duskbloods-is-still-coming-to-switch-2-in-2026/↗Tweaktown — Sony stake vs acquisitionhttps://www.tweaktown.com/news/102244/sony-kadokawa-acquisition-is-off-buys-10-of-company-shares-instead/index.html

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
ANYCOLOR (Nijisanji)	10.24	12.8	74.2%	40.2%	N/A
Cover Corp (Hololive)	15.8	13.3	33.7%	19.1%	+¥4B
Sony Group	N/A (one-time SFG loss)	~12.9x	~11-15% (restated ex-SFG)	11.6%	N/A
CyberAgent	16.32	N/A (Sep FY; Q2 FY2026 results released May 13)	N/A (needs update; ops strong: Q2 OP ¥29.0B +39.3%)	11.8% (Q2 FY2026: OP ¥29.0B / Rev ¥246.2B)	N/A
Bandai Namco	~16.5x	~16.9x	13.8%	14.0%	N/A
Kadokawa	~73x TTM (NI distorted by FY2026 one-time impairment/restructuring)	~38x FY2027 (analyst consensus; company guidance implies ~83x on ¥5.8B NI)	~0.3% (FY2026 NI ¥1.28B vs equity ~¥400B; structurally low)	2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥8.1B / Rev ¥282.9B; normalized FY2027 guidance: 3.4%)	N/A
GREE Holdings (REALITY)	~45x (EPS TTM ¥8.5 at ¥382)	N/A	N/A (thin profitability; OP quarterly ~¥1B)	~7.7% (Q3 FY2026 standalone: OP ¥1B / Rev ¥13B)	N/A
Colopl	279x TTM (loss-making trailing period; Q1 FY2027 annualized ~72x on ¥170M×4)	N/A	~0% (returning from -0.4%; ¥170M Q1 profit on estimated equity ¥14B = ~4.9% annualized if sustained)	~-1.8% (Q1 FY2027 operating loss ¥86M / revenue ¥4,772M; but ordinary profit positive ¥484M)	N/A (likely negative)