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Cover Corp (Hololive)

5253.THIGH

VTuber Agency / IP Platform · Weight: 20%· Data as of 2026-05-02

¥1,435+4.59%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

#1 VTuber agency globally by brand power. FY2026 guidance: ¥52.5B revenue (+20.9% vs ¥43.4B FY2025). Operating margin surged from 11.3% → 19.1% as TCG revenue scales with near-zero marginal cost. Q3 FY2026 quarter: revenue +69.2% YoY. Diversifying into music, anime, merchandise, and IP licensing. Medium-term (FY2030) target: ¥100B revenue / ¥25B OP. 87 active talents, 92M YouTube subscribers. Overseas expansion: Cover USA, hololive English Serendipity concert July 2026 (LA).

Risk

Talent dependency heightened: Hoshimachi Suisei launched personal agency 'Studio STELLAR' (2026) — top-talent migration risk is now real. Holostars restructuring (Apr 2026) shows brand fragmentation risk for the male VTuber segment. TCG revenue concentration risk — single product family driving 60%+ of merchandise. Regulatory risk: YouTube policy changes could disrupt primary distribution channel. Market cap ¥93B on FY2026 guided NI ~¥7B = ~13x forward PE — fairly valued, limited re-rating room.

Monitoring Trigger

May 14 FY2026 full-year results: watch NI, OP margin vs 19% target. If revenue growth declines below 20% YoY OR op margin drops below 15%, reduce conviction. TCG revenue must maintain momentum beyond initial launch year. If additional top-3 talents migrate to personal agencies, risk reassessment needed. Oct 2026 SUPER EXPO 2026 + 7th fes attendance figures = proxy for fan engagement.

Key Dates

2026-05-14earningsFY2026 full-year results — watch NI, op margin confirmation, FY2027 guidance

2026-06-30rebalancePortfolio rebalance

2026-07-03catalysthololive English 4th concert 'Serendipity' — LA Shrine Auditorium (July 3-4). Overseas monetisation proof point.

2026-10catalysthololive SUPER EXPO 2026 + 7th anniversary fes — major event revenue driver

Update History

2026-05-02evolveUPGRADED

View report →

Op margin 11.3%→19.1% (TCG scaling). FY2026 rev guidance ¥52.5B. Q3 rev +69.2%. Holostars restructured. Suisei agency risk. LA concert July 2026. SUPER EXPO Oct 2026.

op_margin:11.3%19.1%pe:18.6x15.8forward_pe:N/A13.3market_cap:¥99B¥93Bfcf:+¥2B+¥4B

Key Metrics

15.8

13.3

Fwd PE

5.75x

P/B

33.7%

ROE

19.1%

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

Div Yield

+¥4B

FCF

¥93B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Streaming	¥18B	41%	YouTube Super Chat, memberships, ad revenue
Commerce	¥15B	35%	Merchandise, events, concerts
Licensing & Music	¥10B	24%	IP licensing, original music, anime projects

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Sony	mocopi motion capture hardware	Hololive talents use mocopi for 3D streams and concerts[source](2023-04)
confirmed	YouTube	Primary distribution platform	All Hololive talents stream on YouTube[source](2024-01)
confirmed	Bushiroad	Trading card game collaboration	Hololive TCG product line[source](2024-09)
confirmed	Retail / Direct (TCG)	hololive OFFICIAL CARD GAME	TCG launched September 2024; accounted for ~60% of Q1 FY2026 merchandise revenue (~¥5.84B). Key driver of op margin expansion.[source](2025-10)
confirmed	B2B (US market)	IP licensing, brand partnerships via COVER USA	COVER USA established Q1 2024 for B2B activities; enables direct licensing deals with US companies[source](2024-03)

Sources & References

↗Cover Corp IRhttps://cover-corp.com/en/ir ↗StockAnalysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/5253/statistics/↗VTuber Sensei (earnings)https://vtubersensei.wordpress.com/2025/05/13/cover-corp-announces-record-revenue-for-fy2025/↗LogMi Finance Q3 resultshttps://finance.logmi.jp/en/articles/382687

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
ANYCOLOR (Nijisanji)	10.24	12.8	74.2%	40.2%	N/A
Cover Corp (Hololive)	15.8	13.3	33.7%	19.1%	+¥4B
Sony Group	N/A (one-time SFG loss)	~12.9x	~11-15% (restated ex-SFG)	11.6%	N/A
CyberAgent	16.32	N/A (Sep FY; Q2 FY2026 results released May 13)	N/A (needs update; ops strong: Q2 OP ¥29.0B +39.3%)	11.8% (Q2 FY2026: OP ¥29.0B / Rev ¥246.2B)	N/A
Bandai Namco	~16.5x	~16.9x	13.8%	14.0%	N/A
Kadokawa	~73x TTM (NI distorted by FY2026 one-time impairment/restructuring)	~38x FY2027 (analyst consensus; company guidance implies ~83x on ¥5.8B NI)	~0.3% (FY2026 NI ¥1.28B vs equity ~¥400B; structurally low)	2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥8.1B / Rev ¥282.9B; normalized FY2027 guidance: 3.4%)	N/A
GREE Holdings (REALITY)	~45x (EPS TTM ¥8.5 at ¥382)	N/A	N/A (thin profitability; OP quarterly ~¥1B)	~7.7% (Q3 FY2026 standalone: OP ¥1B / Rev ¥13B)	N/A
Colopl	279x TTM (loss-making trailing period; Q1 FY2027 annualized ~72x on ¥170M×4)	N/A	~0% (returning from -0.4%; ¥170M Q1 profit on estimated equity ¥14B = ~4.9% annualized if sustained)	~-1.8% (Q1 FY2027 operating loss ¥86M / revenue ¥4,772M; but ordinary profit positive ¥484M)	N/A (likely negative)