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GREE Holdings (REALITY)

3632.TLOW

VTuber Platform / Metaverse · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-26

¥359-0.83%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

HOLD — REALITY Studios has pivoted fully from metaverse to VTuber talent production. Renamed Metaverse segment to 'VTuber Business' with two divisions: Platform (REALITY avatar/streaming app) and Production (talent agency). FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN (English-speaking male VTubers) launched 4th generation auditions March 2026; Lamentus group surpassed 620K total subscribers. Q3 FY2026: Revenue ¥13B standalone, OP ¥1.0B (OP margin improved to ~7.7% from 6.7%). H1 FY2026: Net sales ¥25.5B, OP ¥1.5B. Revenue declining (annualized run-rate ~¥52B vs ¥61B last year) but cost discipline improving margins. Market cap ¥65.6B at PE ~45x on thin but positive earnings.

Risk

CONCEPT STOCK FLAG: GREE's core revenue (legacy mobile gaming, DX, investment) dwarfs VTuber/REALITY production. VTuber talent agency revenue <<5% of total. Revenue declining 3rd consecutive year — top-line headwinds are structural, not cyclical. PE ~45x on thin margins (OP ¥1B quarterly = ¥4B annual vs market cap ¥65.6B = ~16x OP multiple, somewhat reasonable). Monitoring trigger NOT met: REALITY MAU 5M milestone not publicly confirmed. Competition from Cover Corp and ANYCOLOR in talent agency segment is intense. No evidence of monetization breakthrough.

Monitoring Trigger

FY2026 full-year results (Aug 14, 2026): watch for REALITY MAU disclosed publicly (target: 5M to upgrade). If FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN talent achieves >1M individual subscribers or total production revenue exceeds 10% of group revenue, upgrade conviction. If revenue decline reverses (positive YoY growth), UPGRADE to MEDIUM. Exit trigger: if quarterly OP turns negative for 2 consecutive quarters.

Key Dates

2026-08-14earningsFY2026 Q4/full-year results — watch revenue trend reversal, REALITY MAU disclosure, VTuber segment profitability

Update History

2026-05-26evolveHOLD

View report →

Segment renamed Metaverse→VTuber Business (Platform+Production). Q3 FY2026 revenue ¥13B, OP ¥1B (margin improved to 7.7%). H1 FY2026: ¥25.5B rev, ¥1.5B OP. FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN 4th gen auditions (Mar 2026). Lamentus 620K subscribers. Market cap ¥65.6B (from ¥67B). PE ~45x (unchanged). MAU 5M trigger NOT met.

market_cap:¥67B¥65.6Bpe:45.7x~45xop_margin:6.7%~7.7% (Q3 FY2026 actual)thesis:REALITY platform playVTuber Business pivot confirmed (segment renamed); 4th gen EN expansion; revenue declining but margins firmingsupply_chain:2 entries (REALITY app, App Store)3 entries (+FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN 4th gen confirmed Mar 2026)

Key Metrics

~45x (EPS TTM ¥8.5 at ¥382)

N/A

Fwd PE

N/A

P/B

N/A (thin profitability; OP quarterly ~¥1B)

ROE

~7.7% (Q3 FY2026 standalone: OP ¥1B / Rev ¥13B)

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

~1.9%

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

¥65.6B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Game & Animation	~¥30B	~58%	Legacy mobile gaming (WFS, Pokelabo, GREE Entertainment)
VTuber Business (fka Metaverse)	~¥15B	~29%	REALITY avatar platform + FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN talent agency. Renamed 2026 to reflect actual focus.
IP / DX / Investment	~¥7B	~13%	IP licensing, digital transformation, investments

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	REALITY app users (smartphone)	Avatar creation + VTuber-style livestreaming platform	Free smartphone app for VTuber-style avatar creation and livestreaming. Still active globally on iOS/Android.(2026-05)
confirmed	App Store / Google Play	Distribution platform for REALITY app	Primary distribution channel for REALITY app globally.(2026-05)
confirmed	FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN (English VTuber fans)	English-speaking male VTuber talent agency — 4th generation expansion	4th gen male VTuber auditions launched March 6, 2026. Lamentus group (Oct 2025 debut) surpassed 620K total channel subscribers. Growing English VTuber talent agency under REALITY Studios.[source](2026-03)

Sources & References

↗Yahoo Financehttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/3632.T/↗REALITY Apphttps://reality.app/↗GREE Holdings IRhttps://hd.gree.net/jp/en/ir/↗GREE Q3 FY2026 results (MarketScreener)https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gree-fy2026-3q-presentation-material-pdf-ce7f5bdfdd88ff21 ↗FIRST STAGE PRODUCTION EN 4th gen press releasehttps://hd.gree.net/jp/en/news/press/2026/0306-01.html

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
ANYCOLOR (Nijisanji)	10.24	12.8	74.2%	40.2%	N/A
Cover Corp (Hololive)	15.8	13.3	33.7%	19.1%	+¥4B
Sony Group	N/A (one-time SFG loss)	~12.9x	~11-15% (restated ex-SFG)	11.6%	N/A
CyberAgent	16.32	N/A (Sep FY; Q2 FY2026 results released May 13)	N/A (needs update; ops strong: Q2 OP ¥29.0B +39.3%)	11.8% (Q2 FY2026: OP ¥29.0B / Rev ¥246.2B)	N/A
Bandai Namco	~16.5x	~16.9x	13.8%	14.0%	N/A
Kadokawa	~73x TTM (NI distorted by FY2026 one-time impairment/restructuring)	~38x FY2027 (analyst consensus; company guidance implies ~83x on ¥5.8B NI)	~0.3% (FY2026 NI ¥1.28B vs equity ~¥400B; structurally low)	2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥8.1B / Rev ¥282.9B; normalized FY2027 guidance: 3.4%)	N/A
GREE Holdings (REALITY)	~45x (EPS TTM ¥8.5 at ¥382)	N/A	N/A (thin profitability; OP quarterly ~¥1B)	~7.7% (Q3 FY2026 standalone: OP ¥1B / Rev ¥13B)	N/A
Colopl	279x TTM (loss-making trailing period; Q1 FY2027 annualized ~72x on ¥170M×4)	N/A	~0% (returning from -0.4%; ¥170M Q1 profit on estimated equity ¥14B = ~4.9% annualized if sustained)	~-1.8% (Q1 FY2027 operating loss ¥86M / revenue ¥4,772M; but ordinary profit positive ¥484M)	N/A (likely negative)