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SoftBank Group

9984.TLOW

AI Platform / Investment · Weight: 6%· Data as of 2026-05-13

¥5,424+3.93%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Leveraged call option on AI infrastructure via ARM (~90% of Arm equity) and OpenAI (~13% stake). FY2026 results (May 13): Revenue ¥7.8T (+8%), NI ¥5T (5x YoY) — but ~90% from unrealized OpenAI valuation gains ($45B on $34.6B invested; cumulative $64.6B). ARM Q4: Revenue $1.49B (+20%), data center royalty +100% YoY. ARM plans own AGI CPU chips (product pivot). Market cap ¥34.118T ≈ NAV — minimal holding company discount. LOW conviction maintained: earnings quality poor (unrealized PE gains), FCF negative, no FY2027 guidance.

Risk

MAJOR: Peak earnings trap — ¥5T profit (5x record) driven entirely by unrealized OpenAI private valuation gain. If OpenAI valuation marks down >30%, this reverses to massive losses. ARM Q4 royalty MISSED estimates ($671M vs $693M) — smartphone low-end softness. Cumulative OpenAI investment $64.6B creates concentration risk. FCF -¥1,396B: SoftBank generates no operational cash. No FY2027 guidance — explicit acknowledgment of earnings unpredictability.

Monitoring Trigger

EXIT if ARM royalty growth <10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters. WATCH: ARM Q4 royalty $671M vs $693M estimate missed — next check Aug 2026. UPGRADE if OpenAI IPO announced (converts unrealized to realized value). DOWNGRADE if OpenAI valuation marks down in next fundraising round. Monitor: ARM quarterly results Aug 2026.

Key Dates

2026-06-30rebalancePortfolio rebalance

2026-08monitoringARM quarterly results — watch royalty growth vs 15% YoY threshold ($671M Q4 FY2026 missed $693M estimate)

Update History

2026-05-13evolveHOLD

View report →

FY2026: NI ¥5T (5x, 90% OpenAI unrealized gains). ARM Q4 royalty MISSED $671M vs $693M. Market cap ¥34.118T. MAJOR FLAG: peak earnings trap from private valuation marks. LOW conviction maintained.

pe:5.89x~6.8x nominal (meaningless)pb:1.18x~1.1x NAV-basedmarket_cap:not updated¥34.118Tfcf:-¥1,396B-¥1,396B (approx, unchanged)supply_chain:3 links3 links (all refreshed with May 2026 dates)

Key Metrics

~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains)

22.09

Fwd PE

~1.1x (NAV-based)

P/B

~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated)

ROE

N/A (holding company)

Op Margin

132%

D/E

0.3%

Div Yield

-¥1,396B (approx)

FCF

¥34.118T

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
SoftBank (telecom)	¥3,200B	40%	Domestic telecom — stable cash flow engine
Arm Holdings	¥500B	6%	Chip architecture licensing — every AI chip
Vision Funds	N/A	N/A	SVF1 + SVF2 tech investments
Investment/Other	¥4,300B	54%	T-Mobile, PayPay, direct holdings

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Apple	Arm architecture licensing (A/M-series chips)	All Apple A-series (iPhone) and M-series (Mac) use ARM architecture. Largest single ARM royalty source.[source](2026-05)
confirmed	NVIDIA	Arm Neoverse for Grace Hopper GB200 AI servers	ARM data center royalty +100% YoY driven by NVIDIA Grace Hopper (Neoverse). ~50% of new hyperscaler server chips use ARM per ARM CEO Haas. ARM to become largest data center architecture.[source](2026-05)
confirmed	OpenAI	$64.6B cumulative equity investment (~13% stake, Stargate infra)	OpenAI cumulative investment $64.6B ($34.6B for ~13% stake + additional). $45B unrealized valuation gain in FY2026. PRIVATE valuation only — not realized cash. IPO timing is key exit.[source](2026-05)

Sources & References

↗StockAnalysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/9984/statistics/↗Yahoo Finance JPhttps://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/9984.T

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Advantest	54	44	49.3%	44.2%	+¥375B est.
Tokyo Electron	40.21	30.85	23.9%	24.2%	+¥398B
SCREEN Holdings	23.29	17.85	19.8%	19.0%	+¥49.4B
DISCO Corp	55.44	43	N/A	42.3%	+¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026)
Lasertec	44.17	45.06	43.0%	46.1%	+¥96B
Shin-Etsu Chemical	25	23.5	11.1%	24.7%	+¥346B
Keyence	43.64	39.9	13.5%	51.0%	+¥451B (cash equivalents; FCF strongly positive given asset-light model)
Renesas Electronics	Loss	17.78	-2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP	33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%)	+¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B)
SoftBank Group	~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains)	22.09	~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated)	N/A (holding company)	-¥1,396B (approx)
SUMCO	Loss	N/A	-1.54%	-0.8%	-¥11B
Socionext	36.77	22.44	6.0%	7.5%	-¥4B
Nitto Boseki	~25x operating basis	22	13%	13%	N/A
Asahi Kasei	13.4	12	7.8%	7%	N/A
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical	12	11	8%	8%	N/A
Meiko Electronics	16	14	15.6%	12%	N/A
Fujimi Inc	18	16	12%	15%	N/A
Hirose Electric	22	20	8%	15%	N/A