Investment Thesis
#1 global wet cleaning (single-wafer). 83% revenue from SPE. Foundry 52% of SPE (TSMC 2nm/A16 ramp). Forward PE 17.9x — cheapest Japan semi equipment stock (TEL 32x, Advantest 42x). Near-zero debt (D/E 0.01), ¥180B net cash. NAND recovery in FY2027 is free option not priced in (currently only 3% of SPE). Advanced packaging entry via Nikon hybrid bonding acquisition expands TAM.
Risk
China is 39% of sales — biggest geopolitical risk. FY2026 is cyclical down year (-14% operating income). ACM Research gaining share in China domestic market. Non-disclosure of order backlog creates forecasting opacity.
Monitoring Trigger
If China export controls expand to wet cleaning tools for sub-28nm, downgrade. If NAND capex recovers (Kioxia/Samsung expansion orders), upgrade to STRONG BUY.
Key Dates
Update History
TSMC confirmed. Metrics refreshed. Thesis HOLD.
Deep DD update: cheapest Japan semi equip on forward PE (17.9x vs TEL 32x). China 39% risk flagged. NAND upside optionality. Advanced packaging entry.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Equipment | ¥443B | 75% | Wafer cleaning (#1 global), track systems |
| Graphic Arts | ¥59B | 10% | Printing equipment |
| Display/Coater | ¥47B | 8% | FPD, advanced packaging coater |
| PCB Equipment | ¥41B | 7% | PCB processing |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TSMC | Wafer cleaning (CoWoS, advanced packaging) | TSMC awarded SCREEN 'Excellent Contribution in Green Manufacturing' Dec 2024[source](2024-12) |
| probable | SK Hynix | HBM memory cleaning | SK Hynix M15X expansion underway; HBM sold out 2026(2025-12) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advantest | 54 | 44 | 49.3% | 44.2% | +¥375B est. |
| Tokyo Electron | 40.21 | 30.85 | 23.9% | 24.2% | +¥398B |
| SCREEN Holdings | 23.29 | 17.85 | 19.8% | 19.0% | +¥49.4B |
| DISCO Corp | 55.44 | 43 | N/A | 42.3% | +¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026) |
| Lasertec | 44.17 | 45.06 | 43.0% | 46.1% | +¥96B |
| Shin-Etsu Chemical | 25 | 23.5 | 11.1% | 24.7% | +¥346B |
| Keyence | 43.64 | 39.9 | 13.5% | 51.0% | +¥451B (cash equivalents; FCF strongly positive given asset-light model) |
| Renesas Electronics | Loss | 17.78 | -2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP | 33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%) | +¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B) |
| SoftBank Group | ~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains) | 22.09 | ~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated) | N/A (holding company) | -¥1,396B (approx) |
| SUMCO | Loss | N/A | -1.54% | -0.8% | -¥11B |
| Socionext | 36.77 | 22.44 | 6.0% | 7.5% | -¥4B |
| Nitto Boseki | ~25x operating basis | 22 | 13% | 13% | N/A |
| Asahi Kasei | 13.4 | 12 | 7.8% | 7% | N/A |
| Mitsubishi Gas Chemical | 12 | 11 | 8% | 8% | N/A |
| Meiko Electronics | 16 | 14 | 15.6% | 12% | N/A |
| Fujimi Inc | 18 | 16 | 12% | 15% | N/A |
| Hirose Electric | 22 | 20 | 8% | 15% | N/A |