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Advantest

6857.THIGH

Testing Equipment · Weight: 12%· Data as of 2026-05-18

Also in:Semis
¥27,815-1.57%
6-month daily

Investment Thesis

FY2025: revenue ¥1.13T (+44.7%), OP ¥499.1B (+118.8%), NI ¥375.4B — all records. FY2026 guidance: ¥1.42T revenue (+25.8%), ¥627.5B OP, flat ~44% margin. ¥50B buyback + dividend raised 51% to ¥59/share. Memory tester +47% guided (HBM3E/HBM4 ramp reduces NVIDIA concentration). Capacity doubled to 10,000 systems/yr by 2028 via ¥100B convertible bond. AllianceATE Velocity design-to-test integration showcased at VOICE 2026 today.

Risk

TERADYNE CONFIRMED: First GPU production orders Q1 2026, shipping Q2 2026 — monopoly downgraded to dominant duopoly (est. 70/30 split). AP01 FLAG: Revenue ALL-TIME RECORD for 2nd consecutive year; 3rd if FY2026 guidance met. AP02 FLAG: Capacity doubled (5K→10K systems) at cycle peak. GUARDRAIL TRIGGERED: PB 24x vs historical median 5.43x (343% premium) — overridden given AI infrastructure capex multi-year visibility, 12-18M review horizon. >40% NVIDIA revenue concentration. China revenue ~20-25% subject to export controls. FY2026 guidance flat margin — disappointing vs elevated buy-side; stock -5.6% on report.

Monitoring Trigger

Watch Q1 FY2027 earnings (~July 2026): upward guidance revision = bull signal; first revenue miss = exit trigger. REDUCE if: Teradyne GPU revenue >$200M in any quarter (faster share erosion). UPGRADE if: memory tester exceeds 30% of total revenue (concentration diversified).

Key Dates

2026-05-18catalystVOICE 2026 Developer Conference Day 1 (today) — Wave Scale RF20ex, AllianceATE Velocity
2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance
2026-07earningsQ1 FY2026 earnings — first datapoint on FY2026 +26% revenue guidance tracking
2026-Q4monitoringTeradyne FY2026 GPU revenue guidance updates — if >$200M signal faster share erosion
2028catalyst10,000 systems/yr capacity target completion — validates or invalidates AI demand thesis

Update History

2026-04-14evolveHOLD
View report →

Deep research: 3rd guidance raise to ¥1.07T, capacity 5K systems, Teradyne GPU qualification risk, HBM4 memory surge, earnings date corrected to Apr 27

pe:63.5168.62forward_pe:36.6139.55pb:27.1129.29market_cap:¥18.28T¥19.75Tearnings_date:2026-04-302026-04-27risk:NVIDIA concentration + valuationAdded Teradyne GPU qualification, SK Hynix in-house HBM tester, China export controls
2026-05-18evolveHOLD
View report →

FY2025 all records (¥1.13T rev, ¥499B OP, ¥375B NI); FY2026 guidance +26% but flat margin (stock -5.6%); Teradyne GPU qualification CONFIRMED; capacity doubled to 10K systems; VOICE 2026 today; guardrail triggered on PB 24x

pe:68.6254forward_pe:39.5544pb:29.2924op_margin:39.7%44.2%div_yield:0.23%0.22%fcf:+¥304B+¥375B est.market_cap:¥19.75T~¥19.5T

Key Metrics

54
PE
44
Fwd PE
24
P/B
49.3%
ROE
44.2%
Op Margin
14%
D/E
0.22%
Div Yield
+¥375B est.
FCF
~¥19.5T
Mkt Cap

Business Segments

SegmentRevenueShareDescription
SoC Test Systems¥165.2B (Q3)~60%V93000 EXA Scale — dominates AI chip testing
Memory Test Systems¥57.3B (Q3)~21%T5835 for HBM KGD testing, surging on HBM4 ramp
Mechatronics + Services¥51.3B (Q3)~19%Handler systems, support, maintenance

Supply Chain Evidence

EvidenceCustomerProductDetail
confirmedNVIDIAV93000 EXA Scale SoC testers for AI GPUs (H100/H200/Blackwell/Rubin)Primary AI chip tester; est. 40%+ revenue. FY2025 Test Systems ¥1,019.4B (+49.3%). VOICE 2026 showcasing design-to-test automation for AI era.[source](2026-05)
confirmedSK Hynix / Samsung / MicronT5835 / T5503 memory testers for HBM3E and HBM4 KGDMemory tester segment guided +47% FY2026. Samsung +50% HBM capacity surge; SK Hynix M15X ramp. HBM now cycling every 2-2.5 years requiring frequent tester upgrades.[source](2026-01)
confirmedTSMC / Intel Foundry / AmkorAdvanced packaging test (chiplet/CoWoS test flow)TSMC Excellent Performance Award winner. Intel Foundry EVP (Navid Shahriari) keynoting VOICE 2026 — deepening advanced packaging ecosystem partnership.[source](2026-05)

Sources & References

↗Advantest 決算短信 FY2025https://www.nikkei.com/nkd/disclosure/tdnr/20260427511547/↗Investing.com Q4 transcripthttps://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-advantest-corp-q4-2026-beats-forecasts-but-stock-dips-93CH-4645789↗Teradyne Q1 2026 transcripthttps://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/29/teradyne-ter-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/↗VOICE 2026https://voice.advantest.com/↗MarketScreener CBhttps://www.marketscreener.com/news/advantest-to-issue-100-billion-yen-convertible-bonds-to-expand-semiconductor-tester-capacity-ce7e51dfdc88f422

Peer Comparison

CompanyPEFwd PEROEOp MarginFCF
Advantest544449.3%44.2%+¥375B est.
Tokyo Electron40.2130.8523.9%24.2%+¥398B
SCREEN Holdings23.2917.8519.8%19.0%+¥49.4B
DISCO Corp55.4443N/A42.3%+¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026)
Lasertec44.1745.0643.0%46.1%+¥96B
Shin-Etsu Chemical2523.511.1%24.7%+¥346B
Keyence43.6439.913.5%51.0%+¥451B (cash equivalents; FCF strongly positive given asset-light model)
Renesas ElectronicsLoss17.78-2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%)+¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B)
SoftBank Group~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains)22.09~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated)N/A (holding company)-¥1,396B (approx)
SUMCOLossN/A-1.54%-0.8%-¥11B
Socionext36.7722.446.0%7.5%-¥4B
Nitto Boseki~25x operating basis2213%13%N/A
Asahi Kasei13.4127.8%7%N/A
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical12118%8%N/A
Meiko Electronics161415.6%12%N/A
Fujimi Inc181612%15%N/A
Hirose Electric22208%15%N/A