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Nitto Boseki

3110.THIGH

Materials · Weight: 6%· Data as of 2026-06-04

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¥28,160-1.33%
6-month daily

Investment Thesis

90% monopoly in T-glass cloth for AI chip packaging substrates (ABF/BT). Every Nvidia GB200/GB300/Rubin requires T-glass. FY2025 (Mar 2026): Revenue ¥118.2B (+8.4%), OP ¥20.8B (+26.6%), FY2026 OP guided ¥26.0B (+24.9%), FY2027 OP ¥36.0B (+38%). Order books FULL through end-2026. T-glass price raised +20% Aug 2025; JPMorgan models +25% from 2026 onward. Shipment growth +20-30% YoY — dual price+volume expansion. Fukushima factory (¥15B, ¥2.4B METI subsidy) delivers 3x capacity in Jan-Mar 2027. Nan Ya Plastics partnership (Nov 2025) offloads 20% weaving by 2027, providing near-term supply relief. Next-gen T-glass (CTE -30%) targets 2028 adoption — extends moat runway. 5-for-1 stock split June 29, 2026. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley both upgraded to Overweight.

Risk

1) Competitor qualification risk 2027+: Apple qualifying Grace Fabric Tech + Taiwan Glass; Chinese quartz cloth reportedly passed Nvidia certification — not yet at scale but structural watch. 2) Capacity hangover 2027-2028: 3x Fukushima + Nan Ya 20% could flip tight supply to oversupply if AI server demand plateaus. 3) Intel glass-core substrate (solid glass, not cloth-reinforced) bypasses T-glass for Xeon 6+ — structural threat beyond 2028 for non-GPU packaging. 4) NI headline -59% in FY2026 (¥41.8B→¥17B) due to absence of one-time asset gains — momentum investors may misread this as deterioration.

Monitoring Trigger

If Fukushima capacity ramp (Jan-Mar 2027) starts on schedule, HOLD. If Apple or second vendor achieves full Nvidia qualification for T-glass alternative, TRIM. If FY2026 OP exceeds ¥26B guidance (upgrade signal), ADD to 8%. If competitor wins ABF substrate customer away from Nittobo, EXIT. Monitor Q1 FY2026 results (Aug 2026) for first signs of ¥26B OP trajectory.

Key Dates

2026-06-29catalyst5-for-1 stock split effective — typically attracts retail liquidity increase in Japan
2026-08earningsQ1 FY2026 results — first checkpoint toward ¥26.0B OP full-year guidance. Watch: T-glass shipment volume growth vs +20-30% target.
2027-Q1catalystFukushima factory production start (3x T-glass capacity) — major supply expansion milestone. If demand holds, enables further pricing/volume growth. If demand softens, could add margin pressure.
2028catalystNext-gen T-glass (CTE -30%) target adoption — extends moat into next GPU generation; also watch Intel glass-core substrate progress as alternative technology

Update History

2026-06-04evolveHOLD
View report →

Major update: FY2025 results + FY2026/FY2027 guidance filled in. Supply chain (0→3 entries): Nan Ya confirmed, Nvidia/Google/Amazon named, Ibiden probable. Key dates added. 5-for-1 split June 29. JPMorgan + Morgan Stanley both Overweight. Capacity hangover risk flagged for 2027+.

pe:29~25x operating basismarket_cap:N/A¥882.5Bsupply_chain:0 entries3 entries (Nan Ya confirmed, Nvidia/Google/Amazon confirmed, Ibiden probable)key_dates:0 entries4 entries (Q1 results, split, Fukushima, next-gen T-glass)thesis:Basic T-glass monopolyFY2025/26/27 guided, dual price+volume, Nan Ya partnership, Fukushima timelinerisk:BasicAdded competitor qualification risk, capacity hangover 2027+, Intel glass-core threat

Key Metrics

~25x operating basis
PE
22
Fwd PE
5
P/B
13%
ROE
13%
Op Margin
N/A
D/E
0.5%
Div Yield
N/A
FCF
¥882.5B
Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

EvidenceCustomerProductDetail
confirmedNan Ya Plastics (Taiwan)T-glass cloth weaving — 20% of Nittobo's specialty weaving by 2027; Nittobo supplies NER glass yarn as raw materialPartnership announced Nov 2025. Nan Ya handles 20% of weaving by 2027 as demand relief while Fukushima ramp under construction. Strategic supply chain diversification.[source](2025-11-28)
confirmedNvidia, Google, Amazon (competing for supply)T-glass cloth for AI chip packaging substratesNamed as direct customers competing for Nittobo T-glass supply per TrendForce Nov 2025 deep-dive. Apple also courting Nittobo while qualifying alternatives. Order books full through end-2026.[source](2025-11-24)
probableIbiden / ABF substrate makers (indirect)T-glass cloth as spec material in ABF substrate manufacturingT-glass is an explicit material specification for advanced ABF substrates. Ibiden is world's most advanced ABF substrate maker; uses T-glass-reinforced ABF substrates. No public contract disclosed but technology relationship is structural.[source](2025)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

CompanyPEFwd PEROEOp MarginFCF
Advantest544449.3%44.2%+¥375B est.
Tokyo Electron40.2130.8523.9%24.2%+¥398B
SCREEN Holdings23.2917.8519.8%19.0%+¥49.4B
DISCO Corp55.4443N/A42.3%+¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026)
Lasertec44.1745.0643.0%46.1%+¥96B
Shin-Etsu Chemical2523.511.1%24.7%+¥346B
Keyence43.6439.913.5%51.0%+¥451B (cash equivalents; FCF strongly positive given asset-light model)
Renesas ElectronicsLoss17.78-2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%)+¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B)
SoftBank Group~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains)22.09~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated)N/A (holding company)-¥1,396B (approx)
SUMCOLossN/A-1.54%-0.8%-¥11B
Socionext36.7722.446.0%7.5%-¥4B
Nitto Boseki~25x operating basis2213%13%N/A
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Fujimi Inc181612%15%N/A
Hirose Electric22208%15%N/A