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SUMCO

3436.TLOW

Silicon Wafers · Weight: 4%· Data as of 2026-05-06

Also in:Semis

¥2,533+2.3%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Leveraged recovery play on silicon wafer upcycle. Loss-making but 300mm AI/HBM wafer demand structurally growing (+13% Q1 2026 YoY). Miyazaki plant 200mm closure by Dec 2026 = capacity rationalization signal; management focusing on AI-grade 300mm exclusively. Depreciation peaks 2026 → profitability inflection expected 2027.

Risk

100% wafer exposure, still loss-making. Depreciation peaking 2026 = no near-term profit. Revenue +9.6% FY2026 expected but negative FCF persists. LTA structure under review — contract renegotiation risk if demand disappoints.

Monitoring Trigger

May 10 earnings: (1) FY2026 revenue guide vs +9.6% consensus; (2) Miyazaki closure timeline confirmation; (3) Any LTA volume amendment. Monthly SEMI wafer shipment data: flag if <10% YoY growth.

Key Dates

2026-05-10earningsEarnings announcement for SUMCO

2026-05-10monitoringQuarterly wafer shipment volume guidance. TSMC long-term supply agreement announcements.

2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance

2027-01monitoringDepreciation peak passes — first potential profitability quarter for SUMCO

Update History

2026-05-06evolveHOLD

View report →

PB 1.1→1.53, market_cap ¥711B→¥885.8B. Miyazaki 200mm plant closure Dec 2026 (capacity rationalization). Q1 2026 global wafer shipments +13% YoY. Profitability recovery timeline 2027.

pb:1.11.53market_cap:¥711B¥885.8Broe:-1.5%-1.54%thesis:short formAdded Miyazaki closure + Q1 +13% + depreciation peak 2026

Key Metrics

Loss

N/A

Fwd PE

1.53

P/B

-1.54%

ROE

-0.8%

Op Margin

55%

D/E

1.0%

Div Yield

-¥11B

FCF

¥885.8B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Silicon Wafers (single segment)	¥410B	100%	300mm polished, epitaxial, SOI wafers

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	TSMC	300mm silicon wafers	Major disclosed customer[source](2025-01)
confirmed	Samsung / SK Hynix	Wafers for NAND, DRAM, HBM	Disclosed in annual reports[source](2025-01)
probable	Intel	Silicon wafers	Historical key customer

Sources & References

↗StockAnalysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/3436/statistics/↗Yahoo Finance JPhttps://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/3436.T

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Advantest	54	44	49.3%	44.2%	+¥375B est.
Tokyo Electron	40.21	30.85	23.9%	24.2%	+¥398B
SCREEN Holdings	23.29	17.85	19.8%	19.0%	+¥49.4B
DISCO Corp	55.44	43	N/A	42.3%	+¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026)
Lasertec	44.17	45.06	43.0%	46.1%	+¥96B
Shin-Etsu Chemical	25	23.5	11.1%	24.7%	+¥346B
Keyence	43.64	39.9	13.5%	51.0%	+¥451B (cash equivalents; FCF strongly positive given asset-light model)
Renesas Electronics	Loss	17.78	-2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP	33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%)	+¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B)
SoftBank Group	~6.8x nominal (meaningless — non-recurring OpenAI gains)	22.09	~43% nominal (OpenAI-inflated)	N/A (holding company)	-¥1,396B (approx)
SUMCO	Loss	N/A	-1.54%	-0.8%	-¥11B
Socionext	36.77	22.44	6.0%	7.5%	-¥4B
Nitto Boseki	~25x operating basis	22	13%	13%	N/A
Asahi Kasei	13.4	12	7.8%	7%	N/A
Mitsubishi Gas Chemical	12	11	8%	8%	N/A
Meiko Electronics	16	14	15.6%	12%	N/A
Fujimi Inc	18	16	12%	15%	N/A
Hirose Electric	22	20	8%	15%	N/A