ispace, inc.
9348.TLOWTactical · Weight: 7%· Data as of 2026-04-17
Investment Thesis
Japan-listed lunar-lander pure-play. Mission 2 RESILIENCE reached lunar orbit 2025. Mission 3 (APEX 1.0 lander) targets far-side Schrödinger Basin 2026 under NASA CLPS program. Total M3 payload contract value increased to $86M after $22M Magna Petra helium-3 spectrometer deal. Guidance: FY2026 revenue +31% YoY with 'project income' doubling. Optionality on lunar economy; lottery ticket with one of three sub-orbital-to-surface vendors globally.
Risk
1) Mission 3 landing is still a binary event — first all-Japan far-side attempt. 2) Cash cover: ¥16.8B net assets vs ¥6B+ annual burn — dilution likely before 2027. 3) NASA CLPS program consolidating — ispace competes with Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Draper. 4) US Mission 3 scope creep (Draper added $7.7M) signals schedule pressure.
Monitoring Trigger
Mission 3 landing attempt (2026 — exact date TBD). Success: hold/add (re-rating). Failure or >90 day slip: TRIM 50%. Also watch for US government shutdown impact on CLPS awards, any M4/M5 contract announcements. Dilutive raise >10% of shares at discount: TRIM.
Key Dates
Update History
Initial coverage — LOW conviction Tactical (10%) as lunar optionality
Weight rebalanced to accommodate 2 new stocks (6503.T, 7013.T)
SpaceX IPO catalyst DD (June 2026 target, $1.75T-$2T valuation). This stock has NO direct SpaceX supplier or customer relationship — fundamental exposure is to JAXA / Japan Space Strategy Fund and domestic JP space programs, NOT SpaceX. Flagged as HALO ONLY beneficiary of SpaceX IPO buzz. AP03 concept-stock risk if mistakenly bid on SpaceX narrative.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunar Landers & Rovers | ¥2.7B | 100% | Mission 1 (failed), Mission 2 (orbit reached), Mission 3 (2026), Mission 4-6 in planning |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NASA (via Draper team) | CLPS CP-12 lunar payload delivery | Draper awarded additional $7.7M to ispace as part of CLPS; Mission 3 APEX 1.0 lander |
| confirmed | Magna Petra | Helium-3 mass spectrometer payload | $22M contract signed 2026 — lifted Mission 3 payload value to $86M |
| probable | JAXA / MEXT | Lunar technology R&D | Participating in Space Strategy Fund themes; Moonshot R&D |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synspective | N/M | N/M | -1.0% | -174.1% | -¥10.0B |
| QPS Holdings (iQPS) | N/M | 254.6 | -1.7% | -90.0% | N/A |
| NEC Corporation | 23.5 | 19.6 | 8.8% | 7.6% | +¥202B |
| Astroscale Holdings | N/M | N/M | -64.2% | -161.7% | -¥15.3B |
| ispace, inc. | N/M | N/M | -49.4% | -253.3% | N/A |
| Axelspace Holdings | N/M | N/M | -61.4% | -342.5% | N/A |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 31 | 30.6 | 9.85% | 9.6% (Defense & Space segment) | +¥316.8B |
| IHI Corporation | N/M | 25.7 | 26.76% | ~8.8% (company-wide FY2024: OP ¥143.5B / Rev ¥1,626.8B) | +¥42.5B |
| Toray Industries | 22 | 17.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KDDI Corporation | 14.4 | 12.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |