Astroscale Holdings
186A.TMEDIUMSatellite · Weight: 12%· Data as of 2026-04-17
Investment Thesis
First-mover globally in on-orbit servicing. JAXA CRD2 Phase II ¥13.2B contract (active debris removal demonstration) + ELSA-M commercial OneWeb deorbit mission launching 2026 with Isar Aerospace. ESA + UK Space Agency + Eutelsat OneWeb funding (~$15M ARTES contract). JAXA Space Strategy Fund selected for 'flexible spatial mobility' (orbital transfer + on-orbit refuelling). Only publicly-listed pure-play debris/servicing name globally.
Risk
1) P/B 18x richest in the basket — priced for execution. 2) ELSA-M mission is 2026 — any launch failure resets narrative 1-2 yrs. 3) Cash ¥14B vs burn ¥10B+/yr operating, ¥15B FCF — dilution near-certain inside 24 months. 4) Debris-removal pricing model still unproven: no published rate card for commercial end-of-life service.
Monitoring Trigger
ELSA-M launch (2026) — success triggers re-rating, failure triggers 40%+ drawdown. Also watch CRD2 Phase II milestones and any Space Strategy Fund orbital-transfer awards. If a dilutive raise announced >15% of shares, TRIM before the offering.
Key Dates
Update History
Initial coverage — MEDIUM conviction Satellite (15%) on in-orbit servicing category leadership
Weight rebalanced to accommodate 2 new stocks (6503.T, 7013.T)
SpaceX IPO catalyst DD (June 2026 target, $1.75T-$2T valuation). This stock has NO direct SpaceX supplier or customer relationship — fundamental exposure is to JAXA / Japan Space Strategy Fund and domestic JP space programs, NOT SpaceX. Flagged as HALO ONLY beneficiary of SpaceX IPO buzz. AP03 concept-stock risk if mistakenly bid on SpaceX narrative.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debris Removal & Life Extension | ¥4.4B | 100% | CRD2 (JAXA), ELSA-M (ESA/OneWeb), ADRAS-J, orbital servicing |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | JAXA | CRD2 Phase II active debris removal | Contract value ~¥13.2B signed 2024; ADRAS-J preceded |
| confirmed | Eutelsat OneWeb (via ESA/UKSA ARTES) | ELSA-M multi-client deorbit service | €13.95M contract; 2026 launch with Isar Aerospace |
| confirmed | JAXA Space Strategy Fund | Orbital transfer + on-orbit refuelling R&D | Selected theme: 'Technology to Realise Flexible Spatial Mobility' |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synspective | N/M | N/M | -1.0% | -174.1% | -¥10.0B |
| QPS Holdings (iQPS) | N/M | 254.6 | -1.7% | -90.0% | N/A |
| NEC Corporation | 23.5 | 19.6 | 8.8% | 7.6% | +¥202B |
| Astroscale Holdings | N/M | N/M | -64.2% | -161.7% | -¥15.3B |
| ispace, inc. | N/M | N/M | -49.4% | -253.3% | N/A |
| Axelspace Holdings | N/M | N/M | -61.4% | -342.5% | N/A |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 31 | 30.6 | 9.85% | 9.6% (Defense & Space segment) | +¥316.8B |
| IHI Corporation | N/M | 25.7 | 26.76% | ~8.8% (company-wide FY2024: OP ¥143.5B / Rev ¥1,626.8B) | +¥42.5B |
| Toray Industries | 22 | 17.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KDDI Corporation | 14.4 | 12.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |