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QPS Holdings (iQPS)

464A.THIGH

Core · Weight: 18%· Data as of 2026-04-17

¥2,530+0.4%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Only Japan space pure-play with company-guided FY2026 profit: revenue ¥4.0B (+148% YoY), net income ¥500M, EPS ¥10.33 (filing 2026-04-13). SAR constellation scaling to 36 satellites; seven dedicated Rocket Lab Electron launches booked through 2026+. Low leverage (D/E 0.55x, equity ratio 65%). Near-real-time SAR imagery is a scarce resource for disaster response + defence monitoring — gov't of Japan already a selected user.

Risk

1) Forward PE 255x (¥2,630 price / ¥10.33 forecast EPS) — profit priced in. 2) Dependence on Rocket Lab launch cadence; any Electron delay pushes revenue. 3) Guidance slippage risk — company has missed revenue targets previously. 4) Corporate name change (5595.T → 464A.T Apr 2025) still causing data-source confusion.

Monitoring Trigger

FY2026 full-year results (est. Jun 2026) vs ¥4.0B rev / ¥500M NI guide. If net income tracks >¥400M, HOLD. If guidance missed by >30%, TRIM. Also watch Rocket Lab launch manifest — if Electron delays push 2+ QPS missions past FY2026, flag.

Key Dates

2026-06-15earningsFY2026 full-year results (est.)

2026-09-30catalystNext Rocket Lab Electron launch window

2026-12-31monitoringConstellation size vs plan checkpoint

Update History

2026-04-17new_narrativeHOLD

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Initial coverage — HIGH conviction Core (22%) on profit-transition thesis

2026-05-04exploreHOLD

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Weight rebalanced to accommodate 2 new stocks (6503.T, 7013.T)

weight:0.180.18

2026-05-15catalystHOLD

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SpaceX IPO catalyst DD (June 2026 target, $1.75T-$2T valuation). This stock has NO direct SpaceX supplier or customer relationship — fundamental exposure is to JAXA / Japan Space Strategy Fund and domestic JP space programs, NOT SpaceX. Flagged as HALO ONLY beneficiary of SpaceX IPO buzz. AP03 concept-stock risk if mistakenly bid on SpaceX narrative.

Key Metrics

N/M

254.6

Fwd PE

8.47

P/B

-1.7%

ROE

-90.0%

Op Margin

54.9%

D/E

0.0%

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

¥127B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
QPS-SAR imagery	¥1.6B	100%	Near-real-time SAR data; government, commercial, disaster monitoring

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Government of Japan (cabinet)	Near-real-time SAR imagery	Selected user for disaster monitoring per Japan gov press release 2024-11
confirmed	Rocket Lab (supplier)	Electron launch services	7 total Electron launches booked; 3 new missions announced 2025 not-earlier-than 2026
probable	International commercial / defence	SAR imagery	Constellation building out to 36 satellites

Sources & References

↗QPS FY2026 forecast & renamehttps://www.dividendjapan.com/p/qps-holdings-name-change-new-ticker-464a-japan-space ↗eoPortal — QPS-SAR constellationhttps://www.eoportal.org/satellite-missions/qps-sar ↗SpaceNews — Rocket Lab 3 new Electron missionshttps://www.stocktitan.net/news/RKLB/rocket-lab-secures-latest-multi-launch-contract-with-i-qps-for-three-zp5nukb7tdwa.html ↗Japan gov — SAR for disaster monitoringhttps://www.japan.go.jp/kizuna/2024/11/sar_satellites_for_disaster_monitoring.html

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Synspective	N/M	N/M	-1.0%	-174.1%	-¥10.0B
QPS Holdings (iQPS)	N/M	254.6	-1.7%	-90.0%	N/A
NEC Corporation	23.5	19.6	8.8%	7.6%	+¥202B
Astroscale Holdings	N/M	N/M	-64.2%	-161.7%	-¥15.3B
ispace, inc.	N/M	N/M	-49.4%	-253.3%	N/A
Axelspace Holdings	N/M	N/M	-61.4%	-342.5%	N/A
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation	31	30.6	9.85%	9.6% (Defense & Space segment)	+¥316.8B
IHI Corporation	N/M	25.7	26.76%	~8.8% (company-wide FY2024: OP ¥143.5B / Rev ¥1,626.8B)	+¥42.5B
Toray Industries	22	17.3	N/A	N/A	N/A
KDDI Corporation	14.4	12.9	N/A	N/A	N/A