Synspective
290A.THIGHCore · Weight: 20%· Data as of 2026-04-17
Investment Thesis
Anchor MOD contract (¥105.6B through 2031 via TriSat SPC with Mitsubishi Electric, SKY Perfect JSAT, Mitsui) de-risks the StriX SAR constellation. Cash ¥24.5B, equity ratio 76%, lowest leverage of Japan space pure-plays. Subcontract signed February 2026 — revenue recognition begins FY2026. Targeting 30-sat constellation by late-2020s; seven StriX birds already in orbit. SAR imaging is all-weather, all-hours — only category the MOD needs.
Risk
1) Execution on 30-sat manufacturing cadence; delays compress constellation value. 2) Mitsubishi Electric SPC is the prime — Synspective is a subcontractor, share of ¥105.6B not disclosed. 3) SAR imagery commoditising globally (Capella, ICEYE). 4) Burn rate ¥4B/yr operating loss; cash covers ~5-6 yrs absent revenue ramp.
Monitoring Trigger
FY2026 Q3 (ending Sep 2026) results — first full quarter of MOD revenue. If recognised MOD revenue <¥3B in the quarter, TRIM (contract ramp slipping). If StriX-11 and -12 launches complete on schedule by Dec 2026 + MOD revenue tracks ¥15-20B annualised, ADD.
Key Dates
Update History
Initial coverage — HIGH conviction Core (25%) on MOD-anchored SAR thesis
Weight rebalanced to accommodate 2 new stocks (6503.T, 7013.T)
SpaceX IPO catalyst DD (June 2026 target, $1.75T-$2T valuation). This stock has NO direct SpaceX supplier or customer relationship — fundamental exposure is to JAXA / Japan Space Strategy Fund and domestic JP space programs, NOT SpaceX. Flagged as HALO ONLY beneficiary of SpaceX IPO buzz. AP03 concept-stock risk if mistakenly bid on SpaceX narrative.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAR Data & Solutions | ¥2.4B | 100% | StriX satellite imagery and analytics; MOD, governments, commercial |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Japan Ministry of Defense (via TriSat SPC) | Small-SAR satellite imagery data | Contract signed Feb 19 2026, runs to Mar 31 2031. Prime: Mitsubishi Electric; Synspective subcontract — total project value ¥105.6B |
| confirmed | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | SAR data feed + satellite co-development | Prime contractor relationship under Japan MOD constellation |
| probable | International governments | StriX SAR imagery | Seven StriX in orbit providing commercial + gov data |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synspective | N/M | N/M | -1.0% | -174.1% | -¥10.0B |
| QPS Holdings (iQPS) | N/M | 254.6 | -1.7% | -90.0% | N/A |
| NEC Corporation | 23.5 | 19.6 | 8.8% | 7.6% | +¥202B |
| Astroscale Holdings | N/M | N/M | -64.2% | -161.7% | -¥15.3B |
| ispace, inc. | N/M | N/M | -49.4% | -253.3% | N/A |
| Axelspace Holdings | N/M | N/M | -61.4% | -342.5% | N/A |
| Mitsubishi Electric Corporation | 31 | 30.6 | 9.85% | 9.6% (Defense & Space segment) | +¥316.8B |
| IHI Corporation | N/M | 25.7 | 26.76% | ~8.8% (company-wide FY2024: OP ¥143.5B / Rev ¥1,626.8B) | +¥42.5B |
| Toray Industries | 22 | 17.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KDDI Corporation | 14.4 | 12.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |