NSK Ltd.

6471.TMEDIUM

Bearings + Ball Screws (Robot/Humanoid BOM) · Weight: 7%· Data as of 2026-05-16

Also in:EV

Investment Thesis

MERGER ANNOUNCED 2026-05-12: NSK + NTN reached basic agreement to merge by October 2027 into a joint holding company — will create the WORLD'S LARGEST BEARING MAKER at ~24% global share, surpassing SKF. Combined entity will have stronger pricing power across all bearing categories that humanoid robots need (cross roller, angular contact, 4-point contact, ball bearings — 60+ units per humanoid). NSK currently top-3 globally + 14.4% revenue and 114.8% earnings growth FY26 + strong operational leverage. Stock dropped 12.2% over 3 days on merger uncertainty — short-term opportunity if you believe the integration thesis.

Risk

Merger integration risk through October 2027. -12.2% drop reflects market uncertainty on execution. Antitrust review (Japan + EU + China + US) could delay or impose remedies. Combined entity diluted humanoid-specific narrative — most revenue still auto + machinery. Chinese bearings (Wanxiang, Renben, C&U) continue commodity tier pressure.

Monitoring Trigger

Watch the final integration agreement (within 6 months per Nikkei) + antitrust filings. If approved cleanly, the joint holding company TSE Prime listing October 2027 is the value-crystallization event. If integration timeline slips beyond 2027, downgrade.

Key Dates

2026-Q2earningsQ2 results

2026-Q3catalystTesla Optimus mass production starts — bearings volume could ramp

Update History

2026-05-16robotics_evolveUPDATED — merger catalyst now primary driver

View report →

Major errata + thesis update post-cross-validation: (1) Fwd PE correction 20.1 -> 24.7 (StockAnalysis was consensus, Yahoo JP is company guidance); (2) NSK + NTN merger announcement 2026-05-12 missed in original DD — creates world's largest bearing maker (24% global share, surpassing SKF) by Oct 2027. Joint holding company structure; final agreement within 6 months; TSE Prime technical listing Oct 2027.

Key Metrics

24.7

Fwd PE

N/A

P/B

N/A

ROE

N/A

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

2.68%

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

¥593B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Industrial Machinery Business	Major	Major	Industrial bearings (machine tools, robotics, semi equipment), ball screws, linear guides.
Automotive Business	Major	Major	Auto bearings + EV motor bearings + steering systems.

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
probable	Industrial robot OEMs (Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA)	Cross roller, angular contact, ball bearings for robot joints + ball screws for linear axes	Industry-standard bearings supplier to global industrial robot makers; specific humanoid OEM relationships not publicly disclosed but Tier-1 status is established.[source](Multi-year)
probable	Auto OEMs (Toyota, Honda, etc.)	Wheel bearings + EV motor bearings + steering bearings	Top-3 global auto bearings supplier.[source](Multi-year)

Primary IR Documentation

Values and insights cited from official company IR releases (earnings, 決算短信, MoUs, presentations).

Earnings archiveNSK — Financial Announcements (官報 + earnings PDFs)↗

Cites: FY2027/03 EPS guidance JPY 49.05 / Fwd PE 24.7x; FY2026 NI growth +114.8%

https://www.nsk.com/company/investors/financial-announcements/

Press releaseNSK + NTN — MoU announcement (2026-05-12)↗

Cites: Joint holding company merger announced 2026-05-12; world's largest bearing maker by Oct 2027 at ~24% global share

https://www.nsk.com/am-en/company/news/2026/nsk-and-ntn-announce-memorandum-of-understanding/

IR landingNSK Investors landing page↗

Cites: Full IR portal with integrated reports + presentations

https://www.nsk.com/company/investors/

Sources & References

↗StockAnalysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/6471/↗NSK industrial productshttps://www.nsk.com/products/industrial/index.html

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Fanuc	45.7	38.6	9.35%	21.4%	N/A
Yaskawa Electric	21.38	29.16	7.84%	8.7%	+¥11.8B
Keyence	40	38	12.4%	51.0%	N/A
Kawasaki Heavy Industries	25.35	31.65	N/A	5.3%	+¥46.9B
Harmonic Drive Systems	458.8	164.1	5.9%	7.9%	N/A
Omron	38	22.57	2.3%	6.1%	+¥5.9B
Nabtesco	40.8	35.6	5.46%	6.78%	+¥19.6B
Nidec Corp			6.3%	5.0%	+¥174B
Daifuku	38-41x TTM	27.92	18.38%	15.26%	+¥53.9B
Denso	13.93	9.62	7.89%	6.69%	+¥201.2B
THK	58	37.4	3.22%	6.75%	+¥23.9B
Hamamatsu Photonics	45.68	38.54	4.12%	6.70%	N/A
Cyberdyne	N/A	125.47	-0.13%	-11.95%	-¥222M
MinebeaMitsumi	18.66	13.75	9.1%	6.5%	+¥16B
SMC Corporation	26	27.2	7.9%	~20%	+¥99B
MISUMI Group	21.33	18.7	9.4%	10.4%	+¥32B
NSK Ltd.	26	24.7	N/A	N/A	N/A
SANYO DENKI	30.7	21.9	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mabuchi Motor	13.6	18.3	N/A	N/A	N/A
NTN Corporation	16.3	16.3	N/A	N/A	N/A