NTN Corporation
6472.TMEDIUMBearings (Humanoid + Auto + Industrial) · Weight: 5%· Data as of 2026-05-16
Investment Thesis
MERGING with NSK by October 2027 to create the WORLD'S LARGEST BEARING MAKER — 24% combined global share, surpassing SKF (Nikkei Asia 2026-05-13). Joint holding company structure announced 2026-05-12; NSK president + NTN chairman; final agreement within 6 months; TSE Prime technical listing Oct 2027. NTN currently top-5 globally in bearings; FY2026/03 revenue +0.1% but operating profit +35.2% — strong margin expansion. Fwd PE 16.28x on company guidance + 3.16% dividend yield = cheapest bearings-play valuation. Each humanoid uses 60+ bearings, and the combined NSK+NTN entity will be the most consolidated supplier. Stock volatile post-announcement: +10.18% 5/13, -9.93% 5/15.
Risk
Same integration / antitrust / Chinese commodity-tier risks as NSK. NTN's standalone equity story is somewhat captive to NSK's final terms (exchange ratio + cash component). Auto cycle exposure (most of NTN's revenue is auto bearings, not robotics).
Monitoring Trigger
Definitive merger agreement signing (within 6 months from MoU on 2026-05-12). Antitrust approvals from Japan / EU / US / China FTC. Exchange ratio + cash component for the joint HC. Watch quarterly bearings volume + price commentary.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Machinery Bearings | Major | Major | Robot joints, machine tools, semi equipment, wind turbines. |
| Auto Bearings | Major | Major | Hub bearings, EV motor bearings, drivetrain (~half of revenue). |
| Driveline Products | Sub | Sub | CVJs (Constant Velocity Joints). |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| probable | Industrial robot OEMs + machine tool OEMs | Cross roller, angular contact, 4-point contact bearings for robot joints | Tier-1 supplier to global industrial robot ecosystem.[source](Multi-year) |
| confirmed | Auto OEMs (Toyota, Honda, GM, etc.) | Hub bearings + driveline + CVJs | Top-5 global auto bearings supplier.[source](Multi-year) |
| confirmed | NSK (merger partner) | Joint holding company structure Oct 2027 | Memorandum of Understanding signed 2026-05-12; basic agreement to merge by Oct 2027.[source](2026-05-12) |
Primary IR Documentation
Values and insights cited from official company IR releases (earnings, 決算短信, MoUs, presentations).
Cites: FY2027/03 EPS guidance JPY 25.23 / Fwd PE 16.3x; FY2026/03 OP +35.2%
https://www.ntnglobal.com/en/investors/
Cites: Joint holding company merger; NTN chairman role in combined entity
https://www.nsk.com/am-en/company/news/2026/nsk-and-ntn-announce-memorandum-of-understanding/
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanuc | 45.7 | 38.6 | 9.35% | 21.4% | N/A |
| Yaskawa Electric | 21.38 | 29.16 | 7.84% | 8.7% | +¥11.8B |
| Keyence | 40 | 38 | 12.4% | 51.0% | N/A |
| Kawasaki Heavy Industries | 25.35 | 31.65 | N/A | 5.3% | +¥46.9B |
| Harmonic Drive Systems | 458.8 | 164.1 | 5.9% | 7.9% | N/A |
| Omron | 38 | 22.57 | 2.3% | 6.1% | +¥5.9B |
| Nabtesco | 40.8 | 35.6 | 5.46% | 6.78% | +¥19.6B |
| Nidec Corp | 6.3% | 5.0% | +¥174B | ||
| Daifuku | 38-41x TTM | 27.92 | 18.38% | 15.26% | +¥53.9B |
| Denso | 13.93 | 9.62 | 7.89% | 6.69% | +¥201.2B |
| THK | 58 | 37.4 | 3.22% | 6.75% | +¥23.9B |
| Hamamatsu Photonics | 45.68 | 38.54 | 4.12% | 6.70% | N/A |
| Cyberdyne | N/A | 125.47 | -0.13% | -11.95% | -¥222M |
| MinebeaMitsumi | 18.66 | 13.75 | 9.1% | 6.5% | +¥16B |
| SMC Corporation | 26 | 27.2 | 7.9% | ~20% | +¥99B |
| MISUMI Group | 21.33 | 18.7 | 9.4% | 10.4% | +¥32B |
| NSK Ltd. | 26 | 24.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SANYO DENKI | 30.7 | 21.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mabuchi Motor | 13.6 | 18.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NTN Corporation | 16.3 | 16.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |