THK
6481.THIGHLinear Motion Components (Robot/Humanoid Critical) · Weight: 5%· Data as of 2026-05-16
Investment Thesis
Global linear motion leader — ball screws + linear motion guides + planetary roller screws + cross roller bearings. The humanoid BOM has 6 ball screws (upper arm + forearm) and 8 planetary roller screws (thigh + calf) per unit — THK is the JP supplier of choice across both categories. Also makes cross roller bearings used in shoulder/elbow/waist rotary actuators. Stock +99% 52w; FY26 revenue +7.9% but OI -9.3% (cost pressure + restructuring). PE 58 TTM / Fwd 33 reflects expected recovery. THK is the deepest direct BOM-component exposure in JP humanoid supply chain. UPGRADED MEDIUM -> HIGH.
Risk
1) Trailing PE 62.6x, ROE 3.22%, OpMar 6.75% — too weak for stronger conviction. 2) GPT FINDING: Tesla/Figure/Unitree links are thematic, not publicly contracted. 3) MEDIUM is already the upper bound given these fundamentals.
Monitoring Trigger
Revenue growth turning positive. Named humanoid OEM supply agreements. China FA order recovery. NI positive consistently → upgrade.
Key Dates
Update History
GPT validation: 1) Trailing PE 62.6x, ROE 3.22%, OpMar 6.75% — too weak for stronger conviction....
NEW addition. Picks-and-shovels for ALL robot types. Humanoid 100 value chain. Fwd PE 26x signals earnings inflection.
Conviction MEDIUM -> HIGH. Direct BOM exposure: 6 ball screws + 8 planetary roller screws + cross roller bearings per humanoid. Fwd PE 33 reasonable; restructuring cost pressure in current quarter expected to normalize.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| LM Guides / Ball Screws | ¥170B | 71% | Linear motion for robots, CNC, semiconductor equipment |
| Automotive Components | ¥50B | 21% | Link balls, rod ends for steering/suspension |
| Other | ¥20B | 8% | Seismic isolation, new products |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Fanuc / Yaskawa / ABB / KUKA | LM Guides for robot axes | All major robot OEMs use THK guides[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | TSMC / Samsung | Semiconductor equipment linear motion | Precision stages for lithography/inspection[source](2025-01) |
| inferred | Tesla Optimus / Figure / Unitree | Humanoid actuator components | Morgan Stanley Humanoid 100 value chain inclusion |
| confirmed | DMG Mori / Okuma | Ball screws for CNC machines | Standard component in machine tools[source](2025-01) |
Primary IR Documentation
Values and insights cited from official company IR releases (earnings, 決算短信, MoUs, presentations).
Cites: Q1 FY2026 sales +27.4% YoY, operating profit +364.4% YoY; FY2026/12 guidance EPS JPY 202.64 / Fwd PE 37.4x
https://www.thk.com/jp/ja/ir/library/results/
Cites: Recent IR announcements + humanoid-relevant disclosures
https://www.thk.com/jp/en/news/ir/
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanuc | 45.7 | 38.6 | 9.35% | 21.4% | N/A |
| Yaskawa Electric | 21.38 | 29.16 | 7.84% | 8.7% | +¥11.8B |
| Keyence | 40 | 38 | 12.4% | 51.0% | N/A |
| Kawasaki Heavy Industries | 25.35 | 31.65 | N/A | 5.3% | +¥46.9B |
| Harmonic Drive Systems | 458.8 | 164.1 | 5.9% | 7.9% | N/A |
| Omron | 38 | 22.57 | 2.3% | 6.1% | +¥5.9B |
| Nabtesco | 40.8 | 35.6 | 5.46% | 6.78% | +¥19.6B |
| Nidec Corp | 6.3% | 5.0% | +¥174B | ||
| Daifuku | 38-41x TTM | 27.92 | 18.38% | 15.26% | +¥53.9B |
| Denso | 13.93 | 9.62 | 7.89% | 6.69% | +¥201.2B |
| THK | 58 | 37.4 | 3.22% | 6.75% | +¥23.9B |
| Hamamatsu Photonics | 45.68 | 38.54 | 4.12% | 6.70% | N/A |
| Cyberdyne | N/A | 125.47 | -0.13% | -11.95% | -¥222M |
| MinebeaMitsumi | 18.66 | 13.75 | 9.1% | 6.5% | +¥16B |
| SMC Corporation | 26 | 27.2 | 7.9% | ~20% | +¥99B |
| MISUMI Group | 21.33 | 18.7 | 9.4% | 10.4% | +¥32B |
| NSK Ltd. | 26 | 24.7 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| SANYO DENKI | 30.7 | 21.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mabuchi Motor | 13.6 | 18.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NTN Corporation | 16.3 | 16.3 | N/A | N/A | N/A |