NSK Ltd
6471.TMEDIUMMotor Components / EV Precision Bearings · Weight: 2%· Data as of 2026-05-20
Investment Thesis
NSK is Japan's leading precision bearing maker and a Tier-1 Honda supplier, positioned to benefit from the structural shift to EV motors which require 40% more high-precision bearings than ICE drivetrains by 2030. NSK's proprietary insulated bearings (ceramic and PPS-coated) prevent electrical erosion in inverter-driven traction motors — a critical failure mode that standard bearings cannot handle. The NSK-NTN merger MoU (May 2026) creates the world's #1 bearing maker by revenue, with scale to invest in EV-specific product development and pricing power vs. European rivals (Schaeffler, SKF). Honda's UC3 hub motor in Vietnam/India and new India EV motorcycle factory (2028) directly expand NSK bearing demand. Currently at cyclical trough earnings (ROE 1.8%, op margin 3%) with forward PE 22.7x vs. trailing 32x — structural earnings recovery expected as automotive demand normalizes and EV mix grows.
Risk
ROE at 1.8% and operating margin at 2.96% reflect deep cyclical trough — if automotive production stays depressed into 2027, recovery delayed. Merger with NTN (closing Oct 2027) carries integration risk and management distraction. Schaeffler and SKF are investing heavily in EV bearings and could close the technology gap. If solid-state batteries/motors reduce bearing count per motor, long-term structural demand could disappoint.
Monitoring Trigger
Add on confirmation that NSK-NTN definitive agreement signed (target: Nov 2026). Trim if op margin fails to recover above 5% by FY2027 results. Watch NSK quarterly earnings for EV bearing revenue breakout.
Key Dates
Update History
New addition: Honda Vietnam/India e-motorcycle supply chain explore. NSK as EV precision bearing play + NSK-NTN merger catalyst. Cyclical trough entry.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Machinery | |||
| Automotive | |||
| Other |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| probable | Honda Motor (7267.T) | Hub motor and wheel bearings for Honda UC3 e-motorcycle in Vietnam/Thailand | Honda UC3 uses in-house developed hub motor; NSK is a confirmed Tier-1 Honda supplier for automotive and motorcycle drivetrain bearings. NSK specifically lists 'electrification products' including hub unit bearings on their official product pages.[source](2026-01) |
| confirmed | Multiple EV manufacturers (global) | Insulated traction motor bearings (ceramic/PPS-coated) to prevent inverter-induced electrical erosion | NSK publicly released insulated bearing products specifically developed for EV traction motors. Ceramic and PPS plastic over-moulded versions documented in NSK technical publications. Addresses fundamental failure mode where inverter harmonics induce current flow through bearings.[source](2022-06) |
| confirmed | NSK + NTN merger entity (world #1 bearing maker) | Business integration — ¥1.7T combined revenue, joint holding company Oct 2027 | NSK and NTN signed MoU for business integration via joint holding company. Combined entity targets world #1 bearing position driven by EV demand requiring 40% more bearings by 2030. Regulatory approval from Japan and EU authorities required.[source](2026-05) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murata Manufacturing | ~49.7x TTM (impairment-distorted; fwd PE ~37x on FY2026 guidance) | ~37x (on FY2026 OP +34.8% guidance) | 7.25% | 15.4% | +¥239B |
| TDK Corp | 26.51 | 23.71 | 11.4% | 12.4% | +¥169B |
| Fuji Electric | 20.59 | 17.97 | 8.2% | 8.7% | +¥51B |
| Sumitomo Metal Mining | 28.63 | 19.76 | 5.0% | 5.0% | +¥87B |
| AGC Inc | 17.89 | 14.7 | 4.7% | 6.2% | +¥65B |
| Kureha Corp | N/A | 19 | -6.7% | -11.1% | ~est. negative (capex ongoing) |
| Asahi Kasei | 13.4 | 12.9 | 7.7% | 7.5% | +¥134B |
| Mitsubishi Electric | 32.85 | 30.6 | 10.1% | 9.1% | +¥317B |
| Nidec Corp | 6.3% | 5.0% | +¥174B | ||
| Hirose Electric | 23.3 | 23.5 | 9.0% | 20.3% | ~+¥36B |
| Sumitomo Electric | 25.5 | 29.7 | 10.2% | 8.2% | +¥102B (est.) |
| Resonac Holdings | 83.53 | ~31.6x | 5.72% | 4.3% | +¥24B |
| Rohm Co. | Loss (NI -¥158.4B SiC impairment) | ~125x (near-breakeven NI; FY2028 target >20% OP margin) | Loss | +1.6% Q3 FY2026 (recovering from -9.0% year ago) | -¥44B |
| Shindengen Electric Manufacturing Co., Ltd. | 30.8 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| GS Yuasa Corporation | 11.04 | N/A | 9.59% | N/A | N/A |
| Mitsuba Corporation | 5.5 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Daido Steel Co., Ltd. | ~11x | N/A | N/A | N/A | +est. |
| Nippon Seiki Co., Ltd. | 12.45 | 12.05 | N/A | N/A | +confirmed |
| Musashi Seimitsu Industry Co., Ltd. | 31.6 | N/A | N/A | 11.1% | N/A |
| Stanley Electric Co., Ltd. | 13.8 | 4.5% | 6.3% | N/A | |
| Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | 7.77 | 5.82% | 7.0% | N/A | |
| Mitsui High-tec, Inc. | 15.3 | 13 | 11.8% | 5.8% | -¥12B |
| MinebeaMitsumi Inc. | 18.7 | 13.75 | 9.1% | 6.2% | -¥21B |
| Ryobi Limited | ~8x | N/A | 4.4% | 3.2% | N/A |
| Tokai Rika Co., Ltd. | ~8x | N/A | 10.9% | 5.9% | +est. ¥15-20B |
| Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation | 91 | 7 | 3.1% | 2.9% | ~0 (thin; ¥20B capex planned) |
| Japan Aviation Electronics Industry, Ltd. | 13.7 | 5.1% | 7.1% | thin (¥63B capex over 3yr) | |
| ARCHION Corporation | 11 | 11 | ~6% | ~2.0% | Negative on integration capex through FY2027 |
| Alps Alpine Co., Ltd. | 18.3 | N/A | N/A | 2.4% | N/A |
| Nichicon Corporation | 16.74 | N/A | N/A | 3.8% | N/A |
| Mikuni Corporation | 4.2 | N/A | N/A — confirm vs J-Quants | N/A — thin, est. 1-3% | N/A |
| T.RAD Co., Ltd. | N/A — confirm vs StockAnalysis | N/A | N/A — confirm vs J-Quants | N/A | N/A |
| Renesas Electronics Corporation | N/A (EPS negative — IDT amortization ¥370B/yr; operating profit positive) | N/A | ~10.5% (pre-impairment FY2025; currently impaired by amortization) | N/A — confirm vs J-Quants | N/A |
| Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. | 24.79x TTM | 22.32x (pre-PVC recovery) | ~10.5-11.5% | ~24.7% (FY2026; compressed -14.4% from PVC weakness) | +¥739.4B (FY2025 — outstanding) |
| Sumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd. | ~17.2x TTM | ~12.0x (FY2025 guidance ¥25.5B NI) | 6.54% | 10.3% (FY2025 guidance) | +¥46B est (EV/FCF 8.73x, EV ~¥400B) |
| NSK Ltd | 32.12 | 22.70 | 1.8% | 2.96% | +¥44B (est.) |
| Toray Industries Inc | 25.97 | 16.62 | 3.19% | 5.0% | N/A |
| SMC Corporation | 29.0 | 27.24 | 7.9% | N/A | +¥200B (est., high net income + minimal capex) |
| Mitsui Kinzoku Company, Limited | ~29.7x TTM / ~22.3x forward (StockAnalysis/Simply Wall St, May 2026) | ~22.3x | ~18.4% | ~15.6% (implied: OP ¥117B / revenue ¥750B FY2025E) | N/A (verify J-Quants; positive expected given OP margins) |
| UBE Corporation | ~8.4x TTM (cheaply valued) | N/A | ~5.1% (WARNING: below TSE 8% target — ROE guardrail triggered. Override: capex-heavy transition period; electrolyte growth pipeline.) | ~4.7% (thin — monitor for recovery to 7%+) | N/A (capex-heavy with Louisiana plant — verify against J-Quants when available) |
| Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd. | 20.79x TTM (StockAnalysis, May 2026) | 27.52x (FY2026 guidance: +8% revenue, +50% OP income) | 3.92% | ~3.3% TTM (trough); guided to ~4.8–5% FY2026 on +50% OP recovery | N/A |
| F.C.C. Co., Ltd. | 9.5x | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nittoku Co., Ltd. | 14.12x | 15.45x | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| NOK Corporation | 15.5x | N/A | ~3-5% | 4.9% | N/A |
| Yokowo Co., Ltd. | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5.1% | N/A |
| Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. | 7.5 | N/A | 1.4% | 5.0% | +¥52.5B |
| Hioki E.E. Corporation | 27.8x | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tsubakimoto Chain Co. | ~11.2x | N/A | 8.75% | ~8.1% | est. +¥20-25B |
| Central Glass Co., Ltd. | 17.7x | ~14x (26% EPS growth forecast; analyst consensus) | ~8.2% (est: NI ¥8.36B / book value ¥101B) | ~3.2% (compressed; was ~6-9% pre-Chinese LiPF6 price war) | N/A (J-Quants not available; cross-validate before entry) |
| CKD Corporation | ~36x | ~20x (analyst forecast; likely conservative given 35.7% recent earnings growth) | 9.19% | 12.4% | N/A |
| Panasonic Holdings Corporation | 32.4x | ~15x (FY2027 NI expected +2.2x from ¥75B base) | 4.77% (FY2026 trough; guided higher FY2027) | ~2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥236.4B / Revenue ¥8,049B; compressed by restructuring charges) | N/A (Panasonic Energy capex-heavy; cross-validate before entry) |
| UACJ Corporation | 15.46x | ~22x (FY2027 NI guided ¥28B from ¥38.8B; NI decline; caution) | 11.21% | ~5.4% (Q3 FY2026 9M operating profit margin improving from prior year) | N/A (capital-intensive aluminum rolling; verify before entry) |
| Kanto Denka Kogyo Co., Ltd. | N/A (loss year FY2026 due to fire). Forward PE ~32x on FY2027 guided EPS ¥118.3 | ~32x (FY2027 guided NI ¥6.8B / shares 57.46M = ¥118.3 EPS; price ¥3,775) | -4.74% (FY2026 fire loss). FY2027 guided ROE ~10% (¥6.8B NI / ¥68B book) | ~8.7% guided FY2027 (¥10B OP / ¥95B revenue). Depressed in FY2026 (fire losses) | Negative FY2026 (fire year). Recovery expected FY2027. |
| Niterra Co., Ltd. | 15.42 | 14.67 | 14.80% | ~19% (FY2027 guide: ¥150B OP / ¥790B rev) | +¥80B est. |
| Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation | ~18.6x est. | N/A | ~10% est. | ~15-16% (Q4 FY2026: ¥56.8B / ¥361.8B) | +¥90B est. |