Kureha Corp

4023.TLOW

Battery Materials / PVDF Binder · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-18

¥3,660-6.15%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Thesis reset after ¥36.5B impairment (¥34B PVDF equipment + ¥2.5B Cremezin). FY2025 net loss -¥10.7B; FY2026 guidance ¥172B revenue (+6%), ¥7.5B net profit (27% below analyst consensus). PVDF Iwaki plant delayed to FY2027. Now a value/recovery play: PBR 0.89x below book, ~5.5% yield via DOE policy. ESS stationary storage in US is a new genuine demand channel. Long-term plan to 2035 diversifies away from PVDF-centric growth targeting ROE 8% by FY2028.

Risk

AP02 FLAG: PVDF capacity hangover — Arkema expanding +15% US / +20% China, Dongyue and Solvay also expanding simultaneously. Price recovery blocked. NMC/NCA EV demand recovery timeline extended 2-3 years; LFP dominance in China is structural headwind. FY2026 profit guidance 27% below consensus. New Iwaki plant delayed from Mar 2026 → FY2027; further delays possible. China plant cancelled (2024) — no China market presence for new capacity.

Monitoring Trigger

EXIT if: dividend cut below DOE floor (currently ¥214-216/share) OR Iwaki plant delayed again past FY2028. UPGRADE if: PVDF spot price China recovers above ¥1,500/kg for 3+ months OR US ESS PVDF volumes confirmed >1,000t/yr OR FY2028 mid-term ROE 8% on track.

Key Dates

2026-05monitoringEXIT if dividend cut below ¥200/share; UPGRADE if PVDF spot price >¥1,500/kg for 3+ months

2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance

2026-08earningsFY2026 Q1 earnings — PVDF volume recovery and ESS ramp

2027-03catalystIwaki PVDF plant startup (FY2027) — volume ramp or further delay is key signal

Update History

2026-05-18evolveDOWNGRADED

View report →

FY2025 net loss -¥10.7B confirmed (¥36.5B impairment); FY2026 guidance below consensus; conviction downgraded to LOW; Iwaki plant delayed to FY2027; ESS demand channel added

conviction:MEDIUMLOWpe:17.89N/Aforward_pe:15.7319pb:0.860.89roe:5.0%-6.7%op_margin:7.6%-11.1%div_yield:5.3%5.5%market_cap:¥158B~¥143B

Key Metrics

N/A

Fwd PE

0.89

P/B

-6.7%

ROE

-11.1%

Op Margin

64%

D/E

5.5%

Div Yield

~est. negative (capex ongoing)

FCF

~¥143B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Advanced Materials	¥68B	43%	PVDF binder (#1 globally), PPS, carbon fiber
Specialty Chemicals	¥45B	29%	Renal drugs, agrochemicals
Specialty Plastics	¥25B	16%	Engineering plastics
Other	¥20B	12%	Construction, services

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Major LIB manufacturers (Panasonic, Samsung SDI, LG)	PVDF cathode binder	Relationship active but Panasonic destocking PVDF cited in FY2025 earnings commentary. Volume reduced.[source](2026-05)
confirmed	Unnamed leading battery manufacturer	PVDF for lithium-ion batteries	Expanded supply cooperation announced March 17 2026 — customer not named publicly. Triggered stock surge.[source](2026-03)
probable	US ESS (stationary energy storage) market	PVDF for LIB battery packs	ESS PVDF sales in US started and progressing per FY2025 earnings. US installed BESS 57.6GWh in 2025 growing to 70GWh 2026.[source](2026-05)

Primary IR Documentation

Values and insights cited from official company IR releases (earnings, 決算短信, MoUs, presentations).

IR landingKureha Corporation IR (English)↗

Cites: Primary IR portal

https://www.kureha.co.jp/en/ir/

Earnings releaseFY2025 Results (May 12, 2026)↗

Cites: Most recent earnings release PDF

https://www.kureha.co.jp/en/newsrelease/docs/FY2025_Results.pdf

Press releaseKureha to Boost PVDF Production (Aug 22, 2023)↗

Cites: PVDF cathode binder capacity expansion announcement

https://www.kureha.co.jp/en/newsrelease/docs/Kureha%20to%20Boost%20PVDF%20Production.pdf

Sources & References

↗Nikkei impairment noticehttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC306WP0Q6A430C2000000/↗Kabutan FY2026 guidancehttps://kabutan.jp/news/?b=k202605120256 ↗Kureha 2035 LT Planhttps://www.kureha.co.jp/newsrelease/uploads/FY2035_Long-Term_Management_Plan_Mid-Term_Management_Plan_jp.pdf

Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Murata Manufacturing	~49.7x TTM (impairment-distorted; fwd PE ~37x on FY2026 guidance)	~37x (on FY2026 OP +34.8% guidance)	7.25%	15.4%	+¥239B
TDK Corp	26.51	23.71	11.4%	12.4%	+¥169B
Fuji Electric	20.59	17.97	8.2%	8.7%	+¥51B
Sumitomo Metal Mining	28.63	19.76	5.0%	5.0%	+¥87B
AGC Inc	17.89	14.7	4.7%	6.2%	+¥65B
Kureha Corp	N/A	19	-6.7%	-11.1%	~est. negative (capex ongoing)
Asahi Kasei	13.4	12.9	7.7%	7.5%	+¥134B
Mitsubishi Electric	32.85	30.6	10.1%	9.1%	+¥317B
Nidec Corp			6.3%	5.0%	+¥174B
Hirose Electric	23.3	23.5	9.0%	20.3%	~+¥36B
Sumitomo Electric	25.5	29.7	10.2%	8.2%	+¥102B (est.)
Resonac Holdings	83.53	~31.6x	5.72%	4.3%	+¥24B
Rohm Co.	Loss (NI -¥158.4B SiC impairment)	~125x (near-breakeven NI; FY2028 target >20% OP margin)	Loss	+1.6% Q3 FY2026 (recovering from -9.0% year ago)	-¥44B
Shindengen Electric Manufacturing Co., Ltd.	30.8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
GS Yuasa Corporation	11.04	N/A	9.59%	N/A	N/A
Mitsuba Corporation	5.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Daido Steel Co., Ltd.	~11x	N/A	N/A	N/A	+est.
Nippon Seiki Co., Ltd.	12.45	12.05	N/A	N/A	+confirmed
Musashi Seimitsu Industry Co., Ltd.	31.6	N/A	N/A	11.1%	N/A
Stanley Electric Co., Ltd.	13.8		4.5%	6.3%	N/A
Honda Motor Co., Ltd.	7.77		5.82%	7.0%	N/A
Mitsui High-tec, Inc.	15.3	13	11.8%	5.8%	-¥12B
MinebeaMitsumi Inc.	18.7	13.75	9.1%	6.2%	-¥21B
Ryobi Limited	~8x	N/A	4.4%	3.2%	N/A
Tokai Rika Co., Ltd.	~8x	N/A	10.9%	5.9%	+est. ¥15-20B
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation	91	7	3.1%	2.9%	~0 (thin; ¥20B capex planned)
Japan Aviation Electronics Industry, Ltd.	13.7		5.1%	7.1%	thin (¥63B capex over 3yr)
ARCHION Corporation	11	11	~6%	~2.0%	Negative on integration capex through FY2027
Alps Alpine Co., Ltd.	18.3	N/A	N/A	2.4%	N/A
Nichicon Corporation	16.74	N/A	N/A	3.8%	N/A
Mikuni Corporation	4.2	N/A	N/A — confirm vs J-Quants	N/A — thin, est. 1-3%	N/A
T.RAD Co., Ltd.	N/A — confirm vs StockAnalysis	N/A	N/A — confirm vs J-Quants	N/A	N/A
Renesas Electronics Corporation	N/A (EPS negative — IDT amortization ¥370B/yr; operating profit positive)	N/A	~10.5% (pre-impairment FY2025; currently impaired by amortization)	N/A — confirm vs J-Quants	N/A
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd.	24.79x TTM	22.32x (pre-PVC recovery)	~10.5-11.5%	~24.7% (FY2026; compressed -14.4% from PVC weakness)	+¥739.4B (FY2025 — outstanding)
Sumitomo Bakelite Co., Ltd.	~17.2x TTM	~12.0x (FY2025 guidance ¥25.5B NI)	6.54%	10.3% (FY2025 guidance)	+¥46B est (EV/FCF 8.73x, EV ~¥400B)
NSK Ltd	32.12	22.70	1.8%	2.96%	+¥44B (est.)
Toray Industries Inc	25.97	16.62	3.19%	5.0%	N/A
SMC Corporation	29.0	27.24	7.9%	N/A	+¥200B (est., high net income + minimal capex)
Mitsui Kinzoku Company, Limited	~29.7x TTM / ~22.3x forward (StockAnalysis/Simply Wall St, May 2026)	~22.3x	~18.4%	~15.6% (implied: OP ¥117B / revenue ¥750B FY2025E)	N/A (verify J-Quants; positive expected given OP margins)
UBE Corporation	~8.4x TTM (cheaply valued)	N/A	~5.1% (WARNING: below TSE 8% target — ROE guardrail triggered. Override: capex-heavy transition period; electrolyte growth pipeline.)	~4.7% (thin — monitor for recovery to 7%+)	N/A (capex-heavy with Louisiana plant — verify against J-Quants when available)
Taiyo Yuden Co., Ltd.	20.79x TTM (StockAnalysis, May 2026)	27.52x (FY2026 guidance: +8% revenue, +50% OP income)	3.92%	~3.3% TTM (trough); guided to ~4.8–5% FY2026 on +50% OP recovery	N/A
F.C.C. Co., Ltd.	9.5x	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Nittoku Co., Ltd.	14.12x	15.45x	N/A	N/A	N/A
NOK Corporation	15.5x	N/A	~3-5%	4.9%	N/A
Yokowo Co., Ltd.	N/A	N/A	N/A	5.1%	N/A
Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd.	7.5	N/A	1.4%	5.0%	+¥52.5B
Hioki E.E. Corporation	27.8x	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Tsubakimoto Chain Co.	~11.2x	N/A	8.75%	~8.1%	est. +¥20-25B
Central Glass Co., Ltd.	17.7x	~14x (26% EPS growth forecast; analyst consensus)	~8.2% (est: NI ¥8.36B / book value ¥101B)	~3.2% (compressed; was ~6-9% pre-Chinese LiPF6 price war)	N/A (J-Quants not available; cross-validate before entry)
CKD Corporation	~36x	~20x (analyst forecast; likely conservative given 35.7% recent earnings growth)	9.19%	12.4%	N/A
Panasonic Holdings Corporation	32.4x	~15x (FY2027 NI expected +2.2x from ¥75B base)	4.77% (FY2026 trough; guided higher FY2027)	~2.9% (FY2026: OP ¥236.4B / Revenue ¥8,049B; compressed by restructuring charges)	N/A (Panasonic Energy capex-heavy; cross-validate before entry)
UACJ Corporation	15.46x	~22x (FY2027 NI guided ¥28B from ¥38.8B; NI decline; caution)	11.21%	~5.4% (Q3 FY2026 9M operating profit margin improving from prior year)	N/A (capital-intensive aluminum rolling; verify before entry)
Kanto Denka Kogyo Co., Ltd.	N/A (loss year FY2026 due to fire). Forward PE ~32x on FY2027 guided EPS ¥118.3	~32x (FY2027 guided NI ¥6.8B / shares 57.46M = ¥118.3 EPS; price ¥3,775)	-4.74% (FY2026 fire loss). FY2027 guided ROE ~10% (¥6.8B NI / ¥68B book)	~8.7% guided FY2027 (¥10B OP / ¥95B revenue). Depressed in FY2026 (fire losses)	Negative FY2026 (fire year). Recovery expected FY2027.