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TDK CORP

6762.TMEDIUM

Core · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-06-02

¥2,775.5-3.98%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

World #1 MLCC maker riding the AI server demand surge — 30,000 MLCCs per AI server vs 1,000 per smartphone = 30x content multiplier. FY2026 was a record year: revenue ¥2,504.8B (+13.6%), operating profit ¥272.4B (+21.5%), net income ¥195.7B. MLCC price hikes effective April 1 (+15-35% Murata, sector-wide), supply still tight (lead times 24 weeks). Gen-4 silicon anode battery launching September 2026 — new catalyst for the battery segment. AI/datacenter target: 15% of total sales by FY2027. FY2027 guidance: revenue ¥2,580B (+3%), OP ¥295B (+8.3%). Caution: FY2026 is explicitly at record highs; FY2027 deceleration to +3% revenue growth signals approaching cycle peak. Correction from April 15 thesis: the ¥47B MLCC factory mentioned was Murata's (Izumo, completed April 3 2026), not TDK's.

Risk

1) Peak Earnings Trap: FY2026 is record high across all metrics; FY2027 guidance at only +3% revenue implies deceleration. 2) Capacity Expansion Hangover: Murata (completed Apr 2026), TDK (Kitakami ramping), Taiyo Yuden, Samsung all expanding simultaneously — oversupply risk in 2027-2028. 3) P/B 2.41 above 5yr historical peak (1.2-2.2x range) — valuation stretched. 4) FX risk: FY2027 guidance embeds ¥150/USD; current spot ¥159 = near-term upside but BOJ normalization could reverse. 5) Tariff scenario: TDK's own risk scenario shows -¥45B OP impact if US tariffs hit end demand.

Monitoring Trigger

If Aug 5 Q1 FY2027 results show AI server MLCC > 15% of total sales, ADD to 10%. If MLCC lead times contract below 12 weeks (supply normalizing), TRIM to 5% — hangover risk rising. If P/B exceeds 3.0x on no new fundamental improvement, TRIM. Sept 2026 Gen-4 silicon battery launch: if Apple design win announced, ADD 2%.

Key Dates

2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance

2026-07-24monitoringUS Section 122 tariff surcharge (10%) set to expire — relief for TDK US operations if confirmed

2026-08-05earningsQ1 FY2027 results — first read on FY2027 guidance trajectory and MLCC demand signals

2026-09catalystGen-4 silicon anode battery commercial launch — Apple and OEM shipments, potential design win announcement

2026-H2monitoringMLCC lead time monitoring — if below 12 weeks, supply normalization is underway and hangover risk rises

Update History

2026-04-15new_narrativeNEW

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Initial DD

2026-06-02evolveHOLD

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FY2026 record results: revenue ¥2,504.8B (+13.6%), OP ¥272.4B (+21.5%), EPS ¥103.09. THESIS CORRECTION: ¥47B factory was Murata's (Izumo), not TDK's. MLCC price hikes Apr 1 confirmed holding sector-wide. PE updated 17.9→26.95 (stock +75.9% YoY). P/B 2.05→2.41 (above 5yr peak). Added Q1 FY2027 Aug 5 earnings and Gen-4 battery Sept 2026 as key dates. NEW supply chain link: advanced packaging nanocomposite bonding materials (FY2027 mass production). Peak earnings trap flagged; HOLD maintained.

pe:17.926.95forward_pe:22.721.16pb:2.052.41roe:11.5%10.0%op_margin:12.4%10.9%thesis:Murata factory cited as TDK's — correctedCorrected: ¥47B was Murata Izumo factory (completed Apr 3 2026)key_dates:emptyAug 5 earnings, Sept battery launch, Jul 24 tariffsupply_chain[3]:N/AAdded advanced packaging bonding materials link

Key Metrics

26.95

21.16

Fwd PE

2.41

P/B

10.0%

ROE

10.9%

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

1.5%

Div Yield

+¥105B

FCF

¥7,220B

Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Apple	iPhone batteries (via ATL subsidiary) and MLCCs	TDK/ATL remains primary iPhone battery supplier. Gen-4 silicon anode battery launching Sept 2026, targeting Apple holiday season devices with 15% higher energy density.[source](2026-01)
probable	NVIDIA GB200/GB300 supply chain	High-current inductors and power modules for AI GPU VRM phases	August 2025 IntuitionLabs confirmed TDK coupled air-choke inductors in GB200 supply chain. GB300 NVL72 (Blackwell Ultra) ramp +129% YoY 2026 — TDK supply role probable but not re-confirmed in 2026 public disclosures.[source](2025-08)
confirmed	AI datacenter operators	Compact thin-film inductors for optical transceivers	TDK launched thin-film inductors for AI datacenter optical transceivers, mass production Aug 2025. Datacenter target 15% of total sales FY2027.[source](2025-08)
probable	Semiconductor equipment OEMs (advanced packaging)	Nanocomposite microparticle bonding materials	TDK acquired Naphra technology for heat-dissipating nanocomposite bonding materials. Targeting first mass production FY2027. Advanced packaging market: $13B→$35B CAGR 17%.[source](2026-05)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Fujikura Ltd	14.1	14.2	27.7%	16.6%	N/A
Ibiden	112	62	11.5%	14.5%	-¥100B
TDK CORP	26.95	21.16	10.0%	10.9%	+¥105B
RESONAC HOLDINGS CORPORATION	~40x fwd	40.4	~8.5% (est. FY2026)	~18.2% EBITDA (Q1 FY2026)	+¥43B
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo	31.3	N/A	15.6%	20.5%	N/A
Nitto Denko Corporation	15.82	11.35	12.2%	17.9%	+¥84.7B
JCU Corporation	19.9	N/A	17.2%	41.0%	N/A
Murata	~49.7x TTM (fwd ~37x on FY2026 guidance)	35.8	8.0%	14.8%	+¥165B