Tokyo Ohka Kogyo
4186.TMEDIUMSatellite · Weight: 6%· Data as of 2026-06-03
Investment Thesis
Q1 FY2026 confirms acceleration: revenue +23.6% YoY (¥67.1B), OP +53.8% (¥15.0B), NI +55.8% (¥11.7B). AI photoresist driving: Electronics Functional Materials +29%, High-Purity Chemicals +17.2%. FY2026 guidance maintained at ¥261B revenue (+10.1%), OP ¥52.2B (+10.2%) — conservative vs Q1 run-rate. ROE improved to 15.6% (from 13.8%). Dividend raised to ¥80/share FY2026. Korea plant (¥20B, 2030) confirmed for Samsung/SK Hynix. Japan dominates EUV photoresist supply. Capex ¥35.8B (+24.6%) investing in future capacity. High-NA EUV qualification slots targeted.
Risk
1) AP02 TRIGGERED: 4+ photoresist players expanding simultaneously — TOK Koriyama 2H 2026, JSR Korea end-2026, FUJIFILM and Sumitomo entering. Capacity hangover possible within 3-4 years. 2) AP01 FLAG: FY2025 was record profits (+43.2% OP). Q1 FY2026 further acceleration. Peak proximity rising. 3) PB 5.09x is significantly above materials sector 80th percentile (~3x) — valuation stretched. 4) Japan export control risk: Japan rumoured to curb photoresist exports (TrendForce Dec 2025), limiting China TAM. 5) FY2026 full-year guidance (+10.1%) implies sharp deceleration from Q1 pace — conservative or genuine slowdown?
Monitoring Trigger
If Q2 FY2026 (Aug 2026) confirms revenue +20%+ YoY, HOLD — guidance is conservative and acceleration is real. If revenue growth decelerates below 10% for 2 quarters, TRIM to 4% (AP02 hangover starting). If export controls on photoresist to China enacted, TRIM to 4% immediately. If Koriyama new building (2H 2026) ramp drives >25% sales growth, ADD to 8%.
Key Dates
Update History
Initial DD
HOLD maintained. Q1 FY2026 exceptional (+53.8% OP). ROE improved 13.8→15.6%. AP02 TRIGGERED: 4+ photoresist players expanding simultaneously. AP01 FLAG: record FY2025. PB 5.09x triggers cyclical guardrail. Export control Japan risk flagged. Added 4 key_dates (empty before). Updated PE 34.7→31.3, OP margin 20.0→20.5%.
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TSMC | EUV and ArF photoresists for advanced node fabrication (5nm, 3nm, 2nm) | TOK supplies EUV resist qualified for mass production lines at leading foundries including TSMC (TrendForce Nov 2025, Mordor Intelligence)[source](2025-11) |
| confirmed | Samsung Electronics | Photoresists for memory and logic fabrication | TOK building Korea's largest photoresist plant ($130M, 70,000 tons capacity, operations 2030) to serve Samsung and SK Hynix (TrendForce Nov 2025)[source](2025-11) |
| confirmed | SK Hynix | Photoresists for HBM and advanced memory packaging | TOK Korea plant expansion specifically targets Samsung and SK Hynix memory/packaging applications (TrendForce Nov 2025)[source](2025-11) |
| confirmed | Intel | Next-gen sub-2nm photoresists (joint development) | TOK signed collaborative development agreement with Intel for sub-2nm photoresists in Jul 2023 (TrendForce, Mordor Intelligence)[source](2025-11) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fujikura Ltd | 14.1 | 14.2 | 27.7% | 16.6% | N/A |
| Ibiden | 112 | 62 | 11.5% | 14.5% | -¥100B |
| TDK CORP | 26.95 | 21.16 | 10.0% | 10.9% | +¥105B |
| RESONAC HOLDINGS CORPORATION | ~40x fwd | 40.4 | ~8.5% (est. FY2026) | ~18.2% EBITDA (Q1 FY2026) | +¥43B |
| Tokyo Ohka Kogyo | 31.3 | N/A | 15.6% | 20.5% | N/A |
| Nitto Denko Corporation | 15.82 | 11.35 | 12.2% | 17.9% | +¥84.7B |
| JCU Corporation | 19.9 | N/A | 17.2% | 41.0% | N/A |
| Murata | ~49.7x TTM (fwd ~37x on FY2026 guidance) | 35.8 | 8.0% | 14.8% | +¥165B |