Ibiden
4062.TMEDIUMSatellite · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-02
Investment Thesis
Primary FC-BGA substrate supplier for NVIDIA data center GPUs via CoWoS packaging. TSMC has taken a stake in Ibiden. ¥500B capex plan FY2026 to expand IC substrate capacity funded by ¥92.1B customer advance payments. Starting 2026: supplying Google, Microsoft, Meta custom ASIC packages — not just NVIDIA. FY2026 NI guidance revised +54% to ¥57B. Nikkei 225 inclusion Nov 2025. JPMorgan Overweight.
Risk
PE 112x TTM / 62x forward — extremely elevated. FCF deeply negative (-¥100B est.) from massive capex. If AI demand disappoints, stranded overcapacity risk at massive scale. If TSMC diversifies CoWoS substrate sources, Ibiden loses pricing power.
Monitoring Trigger
May 12 FY2026 full-year results — confirm ¥57B NI and FY2027 guidance. NVIDIA quarterly GPU shipment volumes. Ono/Gama plant capacity utilisation. If FCF turns positive despite capex, ADD to 10%.
Key Dates
Update History
Initial DD
Aligned with semiconductor theme update: NI guidance +54%, Google/Microsoft/Meta ASIC customers, market cap ¥3.51T.
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | FC-BGA substrates for data center GPUs (H100, Blackwell) | All of NVIDIA's AI semiconductors use Ibiden substrates; Ibiden is the only company that can mass produce these with good yield (Allelco, ARPU, Digitimes reports 2025-2026)[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | TSMC | IC package substrates for CoWoS advanced packaging | TSMC has taken a stake in Ibiden; Ibiden supplies substrates for TSMC CoWoS packaging process (Digitimes Dec 2025)[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | Intel | FC-BGA substrates for server processors | Intel listed as Ibiden client; Ibiden building $1.2B substrate fab in Phoenix, AZ under CHIPS Act grants (Allelco report 2026)[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | AMD | FC-BGA substrates for data center GPUs | AMD listed as Ibiden client alongside NVIDIA and Intel (Allelco industry report 2025)[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | Google/Microsoft/Meta | Custom ASIC ABF substrates | Starting 2026, Ibiden supplying all three hyperscalers with custom AI ASIC substrates (TPU, Maia, MTIA), diversifying beyond NVIDIA[source](2026-02) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fujikura Ltd | 14.1 | 14.2 | 27.7% | 16.6% | N/A |
| Ibiden | 112 | 62 | 11.5% | 14.5% | -¥100B |
| TDK CORP | 26.95 | 21.16 | 10.0% | 10.9% | +¥105B |
| RESONAC HOLDINGS CORPORATION | ~40x fwd | 40.4 | ~8.5% (est. FY2026) | ~18.2% EBITDA (Q1 FY2026) | +¥43B |
| Tokyo Ohka Kogyo | 31.3 | N/A | 15.6% | 20.5% | N/A |
| Nitto Denko Corporation | 15.82 | 11.35 | 12.2% | 17.9% | +¥84.7B |
| JCU Corporation | 19.9 | N/A | 17.2% | 41.0% | N/A |
| Murata | ~49.7x TTM (fwd ~37x on FY2026 guidance) | 35.8 | 8.0% | 14.8% | +¥165B |