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Fujikura Ltd

5803.TMEDIUM

Core · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-27

¥5,808-2.73%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

FY2026: Net sales ¥1,182B (+20.7%), OP ¥188.7B (+39.2%), NP ¥157.2B (+72.5%). FY2027 guidance: revenue ¥1,243B (+5.1%), OP ¥211B (+11.8%), NP ¥156B (flat/-0.7%) — conservative guidance vs record FY2026 caused EPS miss (¥27.14 vs ¥30.45 estimate, -10.28%) and stock dropped -38.9% from ATH ¥7,933 to ¥4,850. 6-for-1 stock split announced; year-end dividend raised to ¥130/share. Core demand intact: optical fiber supply tight until 2028 (6-month lead times), AI datacenter buildout structural. US$20B government contract active; US subsidiary and new US plant launched. ¥300B capacity tripling in progress.

Risk

1) Peak earnings risk: FY2027 NP guidance flat at ¥156B despite record FY2026 — market re-rated from PE 11x to 14x. 2) Chinese fiber makers (Hengtong, Yangtze Optical) competing aggressively on price in emerging markets. 3) ¥300B capacity investment: if AI capex cycle slows >20% before 2028, demand may not absorb new supply. 4) Momentum broken: -38.9% from ATH reflects sentiment reversal.

Monitoring Trigger

If FY2027 Q1 results (Jul/Aug 2026) show revenue growth <10% YoY, TRIM to 5%. If AI hyperscaler capex guidance (AWS/MSFT/GOOG) cut >20%, EXIT. If optical cable order backlog extends beyond 2 years, ADD back to 12%. Watch for 6-for-1 split effective date (adjust PE/EPS accordingly).

Key Dates

2026-06catalyst6-for-1 stock split effective (announced with FY2026 results)

2026-07earningsQ1 FY2027 results — first test of ¥1,243B annual revenue guidance

2026-10rebalanceReview after two quarters of FY2027 data

Update History

2026-04-15new_narrativeNEW

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Initial DD

2026-05-27evolveDOWNGRADED

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DOWNGRADED HIGH→MEDIUM: FY2026 NP record +72.5% but EPS missed estimates -10.28%, FY2027 NP guidance flat. Stock -38.9% from ATH ¥7,933. PE re-rated 11x→14.1x. Weight 12%→8%.

conviction:HIGHMEDIUMpe:1114.1forward_pe:10.914.2pb:3.043.88weight:0.120.08thesis:initialFY2026 actuals + FY2027 guidance + stock analysiskey_dates:emptyQ1 FY2027 Jul/Aug, split Jun, rebalance Oct 2026

Key Metrics

14.1

14.2

Fwd PE

3.88

P/B

27.7%

ROE

16.6%

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

0.5%

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

N/A

Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Alphabet (Google)	Optical fiber cables for AI datacenter interconnects	Fujikura confirmed as supplier to Alphabet/Google for datacenter optical cables (DividendJapan, QUICK Corp reports 2025)[source](2025-01)
confirmed	Apple	Optical connectivity components	Apple listed as a Fujikura client (DividendJapan company profile 2025)[source](2025-01)
confirmed	U.S. Government (White House)	Optical-fibre cables for AI infrastructure	White House selected Fujikura in Oct 2025 to supply up to $20B of optical-fibre cables for AI infrastructure (Silicon.co.uk, Dec 2025)[source](2025-10)
confirmed	Toyota Motor	Wiring harnesses and connectivity components	Toyota listed as a Fujikura client (DividendJapan company profile 2025)[source](2025-01)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Fujikura Ltd	14.1	14.2	27.7%	16.6%	N/A
Ibiden	112	62	11.5%	14.5%	-¥100B
TDK CORP	26.95	21.16	10.0%	10.9%	+¥105B
RESONAC HOLDINGS CORPORATION	~40x fwd	40.4	~8.5% (est. FY2026)	~18.2% EBITDA (Q1 FY2026)	+¥43B
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo	31.3	N/A	15.6%	20.5%	N/A
Nitto Denko Corporation	15.82	11.35	12.2%	17.9%	+¥84.7B
JCU Corporation	19.9	N/A	17.2%	41.0%	N/A
Murata	~49.7x TTM (fwd ~37x on FY2026 guidance)	35.8	8.0%	14.8%	+¥165B