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SoftBank Group

9984.TMEDIUM

Tactical · Weight: 5%· Data as of 2026-06-08

¥5,424+3.93%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Japan AI infrastructure architect at ~30% NAV discount. FY2025 NI ¥5.00T (+334%) — driven by OpenAI fair-value gain ¥6.73T (OpenAI now 52B, SBG 13% stake worth 9.6B). ARM Holdings: revenue .92B +23% YoY, AGI CPU + Compute Subsystems launched March 2026. Stargate Japan (Sakai City): 150MW / 100K GPUs / ¥1T investment underway. EU €75B AI infrastructure commitment. PE 6.7x misleading (paper gains); Forward PE 34.2x reflects real forward earnings power. Morningstar fair value ¥9,789 vs current ~¥7,400 = 24% discount.

Risk

1) LIQUIDITY RISK — ¥16.3T standalone debt; S&P revised outlook to NEGATIVE March 2026; SBG signaled LTV guardrail breach temporarily. 0B bridge loan taken March 2026. 2) CONCENTRATION — ARM is ~40% of assets; if ARM corrects 25%, NAV collapses. OpenAI at 52B valuation is speculative (no IPO yet). 3) NI ¥5T is 90%+ paper (OpenAI mark-to-market) — underlying operating FCF far smaller. 4) OpenAI IPO delay risk — 9.6B fair value unrealized; if IPO < 52B, NI reverses.

Monitoring Trigger

AGM June 24 2026 — watch LTV disclosure and governance. If ARM drops >25%, EXIT (thesis breaks). If OpenAI IPO autumn 2026 prices above T, ADD (crystallizes 30B+ gain). If S&P downgrades to junk, EXIT immediately. If NAV discount narrows to <15%, TRIM. Monitor quarterly LTV ratio vs 25% self-imposed guardrail.

Key Dates

2026-06-24catalystSoftBank Group 46th AGM — Tokyo International Forum. Watch: LTV disclosure, dividend (¥5.5/share proposed), board changes, AI/semiconductor added to articles of incorporation

2026-08earningsQ1 FY2026 results (Apr-Jun 2026) — first earnings post-record FY2025

2026-H2catalystOpenAI IPO (potential autumn 2026) — could crystallize 9.6B fair value stake. At T valuation: SBG stake ~30B. MAJOR potential catalyst.

2026-ongoingmonitoringS&P LTV guardrail — monitor quarterly. Breach of 25% self-imposed limit = negative signal

Update History

2026-06-08evolveUPGRADED

View report →

UPGRADED LOW→MEDIUM: FY2025 NI ¥5.0T record (OpenAI gain), ARM .92B +23%, Stargate Japan 150MW Sakai City confirmed. S&P NEGATIVE OUTLOOK risk added. Supply chain expanded 4→5 links. Key dates: AGM June 24, OpenAI IPO potential H2 2026.

conviction:LOWMEDIUMpe:5.16.7forward_pe:N/A34.2pb:1.174.61market_cap:N/A~¥42Trisk:ARM concentration, FCF+S&P NEGATIVE outlook, ¥16.3T debt, LTV guardrail breach risksupply_chain:4 links5 links (ARM detail, EU, SB Energy)key_dates:[]AGM Jun 24, Q1 Aug, OpenAI IPO H2

Key Metrics

6.7

34.2

Fwd PE

4.61

P/B

N/A (mark-to-market dominated)

ROE

N/A

Op Margin

~390% (standalone ¥16.3T debt / est equity ¥4.2T)

D/E

N/A

Div Yield

N/A

FCF

~¥42T

Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	OpenAI / Stargate LLC (40% JV partner)	00B US AI infrastructure JV + Japan Sakai City 150MW data center	SBG 4.6B cumulative investment in OpenAI. OpenAI at 52B valuation. Stargate Sakai (former Sharp LCD factory): 150MW, 100K GPUs, ~¥1T investment, operations 2026. OpenAI + SBG B co-invested in SB Energy Jan 9 2026.[source](2026-01-09)
confirmed	ARM Holdings (87.1% subsidiary)	Semiconductor IP licensing; AGI CPU + Compute Subsystems	ARM revenue .92B +23% YoY FY2026. AGI CPU and Compute Subsystems launched March 2026. Market cap ~73B. ARM on 1.5B undrawn margin loan facility. Data center royalties >2x YoY. Armv9 architecture royalty rate expansion underway.[source](2026-05)
confirmed	Japan AI Foundation Model Development (co-founder / lead)	Co-lead developer with NEC of sovereign 1T-parameter AI foundation model	SoftBank founded Japan AI Foundation Model Development Apr 12 2026 with NEC; JPY 1T/5yr government support expected. Directly positions SBG as Japan sovereign AI infrastructure lead.[source](2026-04-12)
confirmed	EU AI infrastructure (€75B commitment)	European Stargate-equivalent data center buildout	SoftBank committed €75B to EU AI infrastructure. Geographic diversification of Stargate footprint beyond US/Japan.[source](2026-04)
confirmed	SB Energy (subsidiary + JV)	Renewable energy + data center campuses for Stargate	OpenAI and SBG B co-invested in SB Energy. Building next-gen AI data centers. Sakai City 150MW is the flagship Japan site.[source](2026-01)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Fujitsu	17.95	18.12	15.8%	11.2%	+¥290B
NEC Corporation	20.9	17.45	12.1%	11.1%	+¥202B
Sony	17.6	15.1	14.3%	11.6%	+¥1,490B
Honda	10.5	11.71	negative (FY2025 write-down year; normalized ~4-5%)	2.2% (FY2026 guided; FY2025 reported negative due to ¥2.5T EV impairments)	negative (FY2025 write-down); recovery guided FY2026
SoftBank Group	6.7	34.2	N/A (mark-to-market dominated)	N/A	N/A
NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone)	11.7	12	11.0%	12.5%	+¥1.0T+
Nomura Research Institute (NRI)	21.8	24.4	23.0%	7.2%	+¥80B
Nippon Steel			N/A (loss)	N/A	negative (US Steel integration)