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Kokusai Electric

6525.THIGH

Deposition Equipment · Weight: 10%· Data as of 2026-05-06

¥6,500+1.91%
6-month daily

Investment Thesis

~70% global share in batch ALD — essential for GAA transistors and 3D DRAM. 5 confirmed GAA POR wins (CY2024). Won TSMC 2025 Excellent Production Support Award AND Intel 2026 EPIC Supplier Award. Q3 FY2026: equipment sales delayed to Q4/FY2027 (timing not demand); service revenue rose to 44% of total from 30% (positive mix shift). Non-China revenue share 50%→69% (de-risking confirmed). Toyama capacity doubling complete. FY2027 WFE: DRAM +20%, NAND +15%.

Risk

China ~31% revenue (de-risking ongoing). ¥14B deferred DRAM/NAND orders → FY2026 guidance cut (timing). FY2026 full-year results May 13. US/Japan export controls + Section 232 review. KKR selling overhang. PB 7.51x elevated (P/B guardrail triggered — see Risk Flags). Beta 2.12.

Monitoring Trigger

May 13 FY2026 results + FY2027 guidance: (1) Revenue guide ≥¥300B?; (2) ≥20% growth FY2027 commitment; (3) China revenue % target <25%; (4) Service revenue growing toward 50%. Sep 2026: US Demo Center opening. Jul 2026: tariff 150-day review.

Key Dates

2026-05-13earningsFY2026 full-year results + FY2027 guidance
2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance
2026-07-24monitoringGlobal 10% tariff 150-day baseline review
2026-09catalystUS Demo Center completion (Intel partnership)

Update History

2026-04-14evolveHOLD
View report →

Intel 2026 EPIC Award confirms GAA POR. FY2026 guidance cut (OP -23%). China revenue 47%→37%. ¥14B orders deferred to FY2027. US tariff review imminent.

roe:16.4%14.3%de:26%65%fcf:+¥35B+¥16Bthesis:TSMC award onlyAdded Intel EPIC Award + 5 GAA POR wins + FY2027 target
2026-05-06evolveHOLD
View report →

PE 48.88→37.06x (NI +60.92% FY2025). ROE 14.3%→16.35%. Market cap ¥1.60T→¥1.517T. Q3 equipment delay = timing issue (service revenue 30%→44%). Non-China 50%→69%. FY2027 WFE DRAM +20%, NAND +15% added. PB guardrail maintained.

pe:48.8837.06forward_pe:41.2530.51roe:14.3%16.35%market_cap:¥1.60T¥1.517Tthesis:pre-Q3Added Q3 service 44%, non-China 69%, FY2027 WFE guide

Key Metrics

37.06
PE
30.51
Fwd PE
7.51
P/B
16.35%
ROE
18.6%
Op Margin
65%
D/E
0.5%
Div Yield
+¥16B
FCF
¥1.517T
Mkt Cap

Business Segments

SegmentRevenueShareDescription
Batch Film Deposition¥164B69%LP-CVD, batch ALD, oxidation, diffusion (70% global share)
Parts & Services¥73B31%Aftermarket, maintenance

Supply Chain Evidence

EvidenceCustomerProductDetail
confirmedTSMCBatch ALD/CVD for logic and advanced nodesTSMC 2025 Excellent Performance Award[source](2025-12)
confirmedSamsung ElectronicsDRAM/logic deposition toolsNamed in IPO prospectus, top-3 customer[source](2025-01)
confirmedMicron TechnologyMemory deposition toolsNamed in IPO prospectus, top-3 customer[source](2025-01)
confirmedIntelNext-gen diffusion/deposition for Intel GAA nodesIntel 2026 EPIC Supplier Award (Mar 2026)[source](2026-03)

Sources & References

↗StockAnalysishttps://stockanalysis.com/quote/tyo/6525/↗Kokusai Electric IRhttps://www.kokusai-electric.com/en/ir↗Intel EPIC Award PRhttps://www.kokusai-electric.com/en/news/document/2026032500↗TSMC 2025 Award PRhttps://www.kokusai-electric.com/en/news/document/2025122600

Peer Comparison

CompanyPEFwd PEROEOp MarginFCF
Kokusai Electric37.0630.5116.35%18.6%+¥16B
Ibiden1126211.5%14.5%-¥100B
Tokyo Electron40.2130.8523.9%24.2%+¥398B
Advantest544449.3%44.2%+¥375B est.
SCREEN Holdings23.2917.8519.8%19.0%+¥49.4B
Shin-Etsu Chemical2523.511.1%24.7%+¥346B
DISCO Corp55.4443N/A42.3%+¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026)
Lasertec44.1745.0643.0%46.1%+¥96B
Resonac Holdings83.53~31.6x5.72%4.3%+¥24B
Renesas ElectronicsLoss17.78-2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%)+¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B)
SUMCOLossN/A-1.54%-0.8%-¥11B
Socionext36.7722.446.0%7.5%-¥4B