Ibiden
4062.THIGHIC Package Substrates · Weight: 10%· Data as of 2026-05-02
Investment Thesis
Critical AI chip chokepoint — one of only 2-3 companies globally making high-end ABF substrates. Without Ibiden substrates, NVIDIA cannot manufacture GPUs. Q3 FY2026: NI guidance revised +54% to ¥57B from ¥37B on hyperscaler ASIC demand. Starting 2026: now supplying Google, Microsoft, Meta custom ASIC packages — diversification beyond NVIDIA. ¥500B capex plan funded by ¥92.1B customer advance payments (NVIDIA, Intel, hyperscalers pre-paying factories). Ono Plant expansion ¥280B; Nikkei 225 inclusion (Nov 5, 2025). JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight.
Risk
PE 112x TTM / 62x forward — extremely elevated. FCF deeply negative (-¥100B est.) from ¥500B capex programme. If AI demand disappoints, stranded overcapacity risk amplified by scale of investment. Stock +34% in April alone: FOMO risk. Ceramics/auto DPF segment declining from EV adoption (~14% of revenue). Tariff risk: US chip supply chain may face trade friction.
Monitoring Trigger
May 12 FY2026 full-year results — confirm ¥57B NI guidance and FY2027 outlook. NVIDIA GB200/B300 quarterly GPU shipment volumes. Ono Plant ramp: watch capacity utilisation quarterly. If FCF turns positive (customer pre-payments absorbed), ADD. If ASIC customer count grows beyond Google/Microsoft/Meta, upgrade conviction.
Key Dates
Update History
Market cap ¥2.76T→¥3.51T (+27%). NI guidance revised ¥37B→¥57B (+54%). New customers: Google, Microsoft, Meta ASIC substrates. ¥500B capex plan; Nikkei 225 inclusion Nov 2025. JPMorgan Overweight.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | ¥343B | 86% | ABF IC package substrates (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel), PCBs |
| Ceramics | ¥55B | 14% | DPF (diesel), insulation, graphite |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | ABF substrates for H100/H200/B100 GPUs | All NVIDIA AI GPUs use Ibiden substrates[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | Intel | ABF substrates for Xeon/Core | Historical anchor ~30% of substrate revenue[source](2025-01) |
| confirmed | AMD | ABF substrates for EPYC/Instinct | Primary supplier alongside Unimicron[source](2025-01) |
| probable | Hyperscaler ASICs (Google TPU, Amazon) | Custom ASIC substrates | Rapid growth in ASIC orders per management |
| confirmed | Custom TPU/ASIC ABF substrates | Ibiden supplying AI ASIC substrates to Google starting 2026; management confirmed hyperscaler ASIC order growth[source](2026-02) | |
| confirmed | Microsoft | Custom ASIC ABF substrates (Azure Maia/Atlas AI chips) | Ibiden supplies hyperscaler custom ASIC substrates; Microsoft among confirmed customers per JPMorgan upgrade note[source](2026-02) |
| confirmed | Meta | Custom ASIC ABF substrates (MTIA AI chips) | Ibiden supplies hyperscaler custom ASIC substrates; Meta among confirmed customers per JPMorgan upgrade note[source](2026-02) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kokusai Electric | 37.06 | 30.51 | 16.35% | 18.6% | +¥16B |
| Ibiden | 112 | 62 | 11.5% | 14.5% | -¥100B |
| Tokyo Electron | 40.21 | 30.85 | 23.9% | 24.2% | +¥398B |
| Advantest | 54 | 44 | 49.3% | 44.2% | +¥375B est. |
| SCREEN Holdings | 23.29 | 17.85 | 19.8% | 19.0% | +¥49.4B |
| Shin-Etsu Chemical | 25 | 23.5 | 11.1% | 24.7% | +¥346B |
| DISCO Corp | 55.44 | 43 | N/A | 42.3% | +¥63.7B (OCF ¥133.5B minus capex ¥69.8B; capex doubled FY2025→FY2026) |
| Lasertec | 44.17 | 45.06 | 43.0% | 46.1% | +¥96B |
| Resonac Holdings | 83.53 | ~31.6x | 5.72% | 4.3% | +¥24B |
| Renesas Electronics | Loss | 17.78 | -2.1% GAAP / ~10.5% Non-GAAP | 33.7% Non-GAAP Q1 2026 (H1 guided 31.3%) | +¥364B (confirmed: OCF ¥453B minus capex ¥89B) |
| SUMCO | Loss | N/A | -1.54% | -0.8% | -¥11B |
| Socionext | 36.77 | 22.44 | 6.0% | 7.5% | -¥4B |