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Kanto Denka Kogyo Co., Ltd.

4047.THIGH

Satellite · Weight: 7%· Data as of 2026-05-20

¥1,706+2.09%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Japan's SOLE domestic NF3 producer since March 2026 (Mitsui Chemicals exit confirmed). Sole Rapidus supplier for 2nm EUV fab cleaning — zero domestic alternative. FY2026 beat: OP ¥5.48B (+28%, +22% vs guidance), ordinary profit +47.1% (beat consensus by 20%). FY2027 guidance: revenue +45% to ¥95B, OP +82.5% to ¥10B, NI +79.7%, dividend +80% to ¥36. Structural inflection: domestic monopoly + AI semiconductor capex wave (TSMC Kumamoto, Rapidus IIM-1 2027). Fire recovery complete January 2026.

Risk

1) Extreme guidance vs analyst gap: company FY2027 EPS implied ¥118 vs analyst consensus ¥52 — 127% divergence; miss = sharp reversal from near 52-week high. 2) Single-plant concentration (Shibukawa, Gunma): fire Aug 2025 proved fragility — still unresolved structurally. 3) Korean/Chinese NF3 cost pressure (SK Materials, Hyosung, Shandong FeiYuan) — same dynamic that drove Mitsui out. 4) FCF negative (-¥3.9B) during heavy capex cycle; leverage risk if semiconductor demand softens.

Monitoring Trigger

Q1 FY2027 earnings (Aug 2026): if revenue ≥¥23B (¥95B/4 pace), thesis on track — HOLD HIGH. If H1 FY2027 OP ≥¥5B, guidance credible — ADD to 9%. If analyst consensus upgrades EPS above ¥90 for FY2027, ADD to 9%. If any new fire/safety incident at Shibukawa, EXIT immediately. If Korean import share >20% in Japan, DOWNGRADE to MEDIUM.

Key Dates

2026-05-15earningsFY2026 annual results announced: OP +28%, +22% beat vs guidance. FY2027 guidance: revenue +45%, OP +82.5%, dividend +80%.

2026-08earningsQ1 FY2027 results — first read on whether +45% revenue guidance is tracking.

2027catalystRapidus IIM-1 production ramp — sole domestic NF3 supplier; structural volume growth.

2027-H1monitoringNew NF3 capacity lines expected online — check capex vs actual production ramp.

Update History

2026-04-14exploreNEW

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New stock added: Kanto Denka Kogyo — Japan's sole NF3 supplier after Mitsui exit

ticker:not in theme4047.T added to Reshoring & Green Manufacturing

2026-04-28exploreHOLD

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Theme expansion — supply chain coverage extended upstream (graphite electrodes, cleanroom HVAC, industrial gases). No metric/thesis changes for this stock.

theme_coverage:4 stocks7 stocks; upstream value chain populated

2026-05-20evolveUPGRADED

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FY2026 results (May 15): OP ¥5.48B (+28%, beat guidance +22%), ordinary profit +47.1% (beat consensus by 20%). FY2027 guidance: revenue +45% to ¥95B, OP +82.5%, dividend +80%. Mitsui NF3 exit confirmed complete (March 2026). Rapidus sole domestic supplier CONFIRMED (was PROBABLE). Fire recovery complete Jan 2026. Upgraded MEDIUM → HIGH conviction. Weight 5% → 7%.

conviction:MEDIUMHIGHweight:0.050.07pe:19.626.5pb:N/A1.68roe:N/A5.0%op_margin:~16%8.4%div_yield:N/A1.1%fcf:N/A-¥3.9Bsupply_chain[Rapidus]:PROBABLEconfirmed

Key Metrics

26.5

~15x (co. guidance) / ~34x (analyst consensus)

Fwd PE

1.68

P/B

5.0%

ROE

8.4%

Op Margin

54.0%

D/E

1.1%

Div Yield

-¥3.9B

FCF

¥98.6B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Precision Chemicals (NF3, fluorine gases, electrolytes)
Basic Chemicals (fluorine, chlor-alkali)
Iron/Steel, Commercial

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	TSMC Japan (JASM Kumamoto)	NF3 for CVD chamber cleaning	Named explicitly as Kanto Denka customer in TrendForce fire alert (Aug 2025). TSMC Kumamoto Fab 2 construction = growing volume.[source](2025-08-14)
confirmed	Rapidus (Chitose, Hokkaido)	High-purity NF3 for 2nm EUV fab cleaning	SOLE domestic supplier confirmed: 'Rapidus relies solely on Kanto Denka's supply as part of Japan's domestic semiconductor initiative.' (Sourceability Aug 2025)[source](2025-08)
confirmed	Samsung	NF3 for semiconductor fabs	Named as customer in fire-impact disruption reports (TrendForce Aug 2025).[source](2025-08-14)
confirmed	Kioxia / Sony / Micron	NF3 for NAND/image sensor/memory fabs	All named in TrendForce Aug 2025 fire supply disruption alert.[source](2025-08-14)
confirmed	Mitsui Chemicals (exit — structural catalyst)	NF3 Japan domestic competition — ELIMINATED	Official Mitsui press release May 26, 2025: NF3 production ceased Shimonoseki end of March 2026. Kanto Denka now Japan SOLE domestic NF3 producer.[source](2025-05-26)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Yamato Kogyo Co., Ltd.	8.7	8	8.5%	2.8%	+¥40B
Daifuku Co., Ltd.	38-41x TTM	N/A	18.4%	15.2%	N/A
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing Co., Ltd.	10.4x	N/A (guiding net loss FY2027)	6.43%	2.7%	Negative (OCF -¥3.28B FY2026)
Kanto Denka Kogyo Co., Ltd.	26.5	~15x (co. guidance) / ~34x (analyst consensus)	5.0%	8.4%	-¥3.9B
Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd.	11.8	N/A	~6%	~16% (Q1 FY2025)	N/A
Taikisha Ltd.	12.7	N/A	~9%	~7-8% (H1 FY2026 expanded)	Positive
Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation	19.8	N/A	~11%	~14.6% (FY2026 guidance)	Positive