Investment Thesis
FY2025: revenue ¥1.13T (+44.7%), OP ¥499.1B (+118.8%), NI ¥375.4B — all records. FY2026 guidance: ¥1.42T revenue (+25.8%), ¥627.5B OP, flat ~44% margin. ¥50B buyback + dividend raised 51% to ¥59/share. Memory tester +47% guided (HBM3E/HBM4 ramp reduces NVIDIA concentration). Capacity doubled to 10,000 systems/yr by 2028 via ¥100B convertible bond. AllianceATE Velocity design-to-test integration showcased at VOICE 2026 today.
Risk
TERADYNE CONFIRMED: First GPU production orders Q1 2026, shipping Q2 2026 — monopoly downgraded to dominant duopoly (est. 70/30 split). AP01 FLAG: Revenue ALL-TIME RECORD for 2nd consecutive year; 3rd if FY2026 guidance met. AP02 FLAG: Capacity doubled (5K→10K systems) at cycle peak. GUARDRAIL TRIGGERED: PB 24x vs historical median 5.43x (343% premium) — overridden given AI infrastructure capex multi-year visibility, 12-18M review horizon. >40% NVIDIA revenue concentration. China revenue ~20-25% subject to export controls. FY2026 guidance flat margin — disappointing vs elevated buy-side; stock -5.6% on report.
Monitoring Trigger
Watch Q1 FY2027 earnings (~July 2026): upward guidance revision = bull signal; first revenue miss = exit trigger. REDUCE if: Teradyne GPU revenue >$200M in any quarter (faster share erosion). UPGRADE if: memory tester exceeds 30% of total revenue (concentration diversified).
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| SoC Test Systems | ¥165.2B (Q3) | ~60% | V93000 EXA Scale — dominates AI chip testing |
| Memory Test Systems | ¥57.3B (Q3) | ~21% | T5835 for HBM KGD testing, surging on HBM4 ramp |
| Mechatronics + Services | ¥51.3B (Q3) | ~19% | Handler systems, support, maintenance |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | V93000 EXA Scale SoC testers for AI GPUs (H100/H200/Blackwell/Rubin) | Primary AI chip tester; est. 40%+ revenue. FY2025 Test Systems ¥1,019.4B (+49.3%). VOICE 2026 showcasing design-to-test automation for AI era. |
| confirmed | SK Hynix / Samsung / Micron | T5835 / T5503 memory testers for HBM3E and HBM4 KGD | Memory tester segment guided +47% FY2026. Samsung +50% HBM capacity surge; SK Hynix M15X ramp. HBM now cycling every 2-2.5 years requiring frequent tester upgrades. |
| confirmed | TSMC / Intel Foundry / Amkor | Advanced packaging test (chiplet/CoWoS test flow) | TSMC Excellent Performance Award winner. Intel Foundry EVP (Navid Shahriari) keynoting VOICE 2026 — deepening advanced packaging ecosystem partnership. |