Investment Thesis
Critical AI chip chokepoint — one of only 2-3 companies globally making high-end ABF substrates. Without Ibiden substrates, NVIDIA cannot manufacture GPUs. Q3 FY2026: NI guidance revised +54% to ¥57B from ¥37B on hyperscaler ASIC demand. Starting 2026: now supplying Google, Microsoft, Meta custom ASIC packages — diversification beyond NVIDIA. ¥500B capex plan funded by ¥92.1B customer advance payments (NVIDIA, Intel, hyperscalers pre-paying factories). Ono Plant expansion ¥280B; Nikkei 225 inclusion (Nov 5, 2025). JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight.
Risk
PE 112x TTM / 62x forward — extremely elevated. FCF deeply negative (-¥100B est.) from ¥500B capex programme. If AI demand disappoints, stranded overcapacity risk amplified by scale of investment. Stock +34% in April alone: FOMO risk. Ceramics/auto DPF segment declining from EV adoption (~14% of revenue). Tariff risk: US chip supply chain may face trade friction.
Monitoring Trigger
May 12 FY2026 full-year results — confirm ¥57B NI guidance and FY2027 outlook. NVIDIA GB200/B300 quarterly GPU shipment volumes. Ono Plant ramp: watch capacity utilisation quarterly. If FCF turns positive (customer pre-payments absorbed), ADD. If ASIC customer count grows beyond Google/Microsoft/Meta, upgrade conviction.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics | ¥343B | 86% | ABF IC package substrates (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel), PCBs |
| Ceramics | ¥55B | 14% | DPF (diesel), insulation, graphite |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | ABF substrates for H100/H200/B100 GPUs | All NVIDIA AI GPUs use Ibiden substrates |
| confirmed | Intel | ABF substrates for Xeon/Core | Historical anchor ~30% of substrate revenue |
| confirmed | AMD | ABF substrates for EPYC/Instinct | Primary supplier alongside Unimicron |
| probable | Hyperscaler ASICs (Google TPU, Amazon) | Custom ASIC substrates | Rapid growth in ASIC orders per management |
| confirmed | Custom TPU/ASIC ABF substrates | Ibiden supplying AI ASIC substrates to Google starting 2026; management confirmed hyperscaler ASIC order growth | |
| confirmed | Microsoft | Custom ASIC ABF substrates (Azure Maia/Atlas AI chips) | Ibiden supplies hyperscaler custom ASIC substrates; Microsoft among confirmed customers per JPMorgan upgrade note |
| confirmed | Meta | Custom ASIC ABF substrates (MTIA AI chips) | Ibiden supplies hyperscaler custom ASIC substrates; Meta among confirmed customers per JPMorgan upgrade note |