Kureha Corp

4023.TLOWScore: 27.3

Battery Materials / PVDF Binder · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-18

Also in:EV

¥3,660-6.15%

6-month daily

Investment Thesis

Thesis reset after ¥36.5B impairment (¥34B PVDF equipment + ¥2.5B Cremezin). FY2025 net loss -¥10.7B; FY2026 guidance ¥172B revenue (+6%), ¥7.5B net profit (27% below analyst consensus). PVDF Iwaki plant delayed to FY2027. Now a value/recovery play: PBR 0.89x below book, ~5.5% yield via DOE policy. ESS stationary storage in US is a new genuine demand channel. Long-term plan to 2035 diversifies away from PVDF-centric growth targeting ROE 8% by FY2028.

Risk

AP02 FLAG: PVDF capacity hangover — Arkema expanding +15% US / +20% China, Dongyue and Solvay also expanding simultaneously. Price recovery blocked. NMC/NCA EV demand recovery timeline extended 2-3 years; LFP dominance in China is structural headwind. FY2026 profit guidance 27% below consensus. New Iwaki plant delayed from Mar 2026 → FY2027; further delays possible. China plant cancelled (2024) — no China market presence for new capacity.

Monitoring Trigger

EXIT if: dividend cut below DOE floor (currently ¥214-216/share) OR Iwaki plant delayed again past FY2028. UPGRADE if: PVDF spot price China recovers above ¥1,500/kg for 3+ months OR US ESS PVDF volumes confirmed >1,000t/yr OR FY2028 mid-term ROE 8% on track.

Key Dates

2026-05monitoringEXIT if dividend cut below ¥200/share; UPGRADE if PVDF spot price >¥1,500/kg for 3+ months

2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance

2026-08earningsFY2026 Q1 earnings — PVDF volume recovery and ESS ramp

2027-03catalystIwaki PVDF plant startup (FY2027) — volume ramp or further delay is key signal

Key Metrics

N/A

Fwd PE

0.89

P/B

-6.7%

ROE

-11.1%

Op Margin

64%

D/E

5.5%

Div Yield

~est. negative (capex ongoing)

FCF

~¥143B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Advanced Materials	¥68B	43%	PVDF binder (#1 globally), PPS, carbon fiber
Specialty Chemicals	¥45B	29%	Renal drugs, agrochemicals
Specialty Plastics	¥25B	16%	Engineering plastics
Other	¥20B	12%	Construction, services

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Major LIB manufacturers (Panasonic, Samsung SDI, LG)	PVDF cathode binder	Relationship active but Panasonic destocking PVDF cited in FY2025 earnings commentary. Volume reduced.
confirmed	Unnamed leading battery manufacturer	PVDF for lithium-ion batteries	Expanded supply cooperation announced March 17 2026 — customer not named publicly. Triggered stock surge.
probable	US ESS (stationary energy storage) market	PVDF for LIB battery packs	ESS PVDF sales in US started and progressing per FY2025 earnings. US installed BESS 57.6GWh in 2025 growing to 70GWh 2026.