¥2,533+2.3%
6-month dailyInvestment Thesis
Leveraged recovery play on silicon wafer upcycle. Loss-making but 300mm AI/HBM wafer demand structurally growing (+13% Q1 2026 YoY). Miyazaki plant 200mm closure by Dec 2026 = capacity rationalization signal; management focusing on AI-grade 300mm exclusively. Depreciation peaks 2026 → profitability inflection expected 2027.
Risk
100% wafer exposure, still loss-making. Depreciation peaking 2026 = no near-term profit. Revenue +9.6% FY2026 expected but negative FCF persists. LTA structure under review — contract renegotiation risk if demand disappoints.
Monitoring Trigger
May 10 earnings: (1) FY2026 revenue guide vs +9.6% consensus; (2) Miyazaki closure timeline confirmation; (3) Any LTA volume amendment. Monthly SEMI wafer shipment data: flag if <10% YoY growth.
Key Dates
2026-05-10earningsEarnings announcement for SUMCO
2026-05-10monitoringQuarterly wafer shipment volume guidance. TSMC long-term supply agreement announcements.
2026-06-30rebalanceSemiannual portfolio rebalance
2027-01monitoringDepreciation peak passes — first potential profitability quarter for SUMCO
Key Metrics
Loss
PE
N/A
Fwd PE
1.53
P/B
-1.54%
ROE
-0.8%
Op Margin
55%
D/E
1.0%
Div Yield
-¥11B
FCF
¥885.8B
Mkt Cap
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon Wafers (single segment) | ¥410B | 100% | 300mm polished, epitaxial, SOI wafers |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TSMC | 300mm silicon wafers | Major disclosed customer |
| confirmed | Samsung / SK Hynix | Wafers for NAND, DRAM, HBM | Disclosed in annual reports |
| probable | Intel | Silicon wafers | Historical key customer |