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Nomura Micro Science

6254.THIGH

Core · Weight: 35%· Data as of 2026-05-17

Investment Thesis

Global top-share UPW system integrator at the deepest trough of an FY2026 earnings cycle. FY2027 operating profit target ¥16B (2.4x FY2026's ¥6.667B), backed by ¥164.8B order backlog (3.5x current year). Orders received +55.9% YoY — AI fab construction wave at Samsung, Rapidus, and global foundries is arriving as orders now. Forward PE 11.7x prices in FY2026 trough, not the recovery. Overseas revenue 76% (Asia-led). ROE 15.2% in normalized periods confirms structural quality.

Risk

1) Project-timing revenue recognition: if fab construction delays slip to FY2028, FY2027 guidance misses. 2) Samsung capex freeze risk: Samsung was announced main customer — Samsung capex cycles can pause sharply. 3) Small cap (¥136B): liquidity risk and analyst coverage limited. 4) Concept stock check: 100% water revenue — cleared. Not at peak.

Monitoring Trigger

Q1 FY2027 results (Aug 2026): if order intake <¥35B in Q1 (pace vs ¥164.8B target), reassess. If FY2027 OP guidance raised above ¥20B, ADD. If Samsung announces >20% capex cut, TRIM to 15%.

Key Dates

2026-06-25catalystDividend payment date (¥85/share)

2026-08earningsQ1 FY2027 results — key test of order conversion to revenue

2026-11earningsH1 FY2027 results — verify ¥16B OP trajectory

Update History

2026-05-17new_narrativeHOLD

View report →

Initial DD — FY2026 trough creates entry; FY2027 2.4x OP recovery expected; forward PE 11.7x; ROE 15.2%; order backlog 3.5x

Key Metrics

17.2

11.7

Fwd PE

1.5

P/B

15.2%

ROE

14.1%

Op Margin

N/A

D/E

2.24%

Div Yield

+¥4B (est FY2026 trough)

FCF

¥136B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
UPW Systems (Semiconductor/Electronics)	~¥33B	~75%	UPW design, construction, operation, maintenance for semiconductor fabs in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, US
UPW Systems (Pharma/Other)	~¥11B	~25%	Pharmaceutical-grade purified water, wastewater treatment, industrial water reclamation

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
confirmed	Samsung Electronics	UPW system installation, operation, maintenance	Primary customer. Nomura Micro Science supplies UPW systems to Samsung semiconductor fabs in South Korea, China, and overseas facilities. Named as main customer in company investor materials.[source](2026-05)
probable	Japan semiconductor fabs (Kioxia, Micron Japan, Rapidus)	UPW system integration and maintenance	Company headquartered in Japan with domestic semiconductor fab clients. Rapidus Chitose fab construction creates new domestic order pipeline.[source](2026-05)
probable	Taiwan and US semiconductor fabs	UPW systems	76% overseas revenue; Asia (including Taiwan foundry ecosystem) is primary market. US revenue growing with new fab construction.[source](2026-05)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

Company	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	Op Margin	FCF
Nomura Micro Science	17.2	11.7	15.2%	14.1%	+¥4B (est FY2026 trough)
Kurita Water Industries	36	N/A	6.5%	12.8%	positive (OCF +72.5% YoY FY2026)
Metawater	13.16	11.78	9.1%	5.9%	positive
Toray Industries	14.2	N/A	4.6%	N/A	N/A