Japan Steel Works (5631.T)

Materials / Forgings | HIGH | Weight: 17%

Thesis: Near-monopoly on ultra-large nuclear-grade steel forgings (reactor pressure vessels, steam generator shells). Only manufacturer globally with this capability. Backlog >¥135B. METI confirmed as BWRX-300 supplier. ¥28B CAPEX for SMR capacity expansion. 18-month manufacturing cycle = multi-year visibility.

Risk: FCF turned negative (-¥19.7B) in FY2025 due to capex. PE 35x on negative cash flow is expensive. Industrial machinery segment exposed to weak China demand.

Monitor: If operating CF turns positive in May 2026 earnings, increase to 20%. If negative for second year, reduce to 12%.

Key Metrics

35.28

34.31

Fwd PE

3.53

P/B

10.5%

ROE

8.4%

Op Margin

34%

D/E

0.9%

Yield

-¥19.7B

FCF

¥724B

Mkt Cap

Business Segments

Segment	Revenue	Share	Description
Industrial Machinery	¥160B	58%	Plastic processing machines, extruders
Materials & Engineering	¥117B	42%	Nuclear forgings, defense, energy plant equipment

Supply Chain Evidence

Evidence	Customer	Product	Detail
CONFIRMED	GE Hitachi / BWRX-300	Reactor pressure vessel forgings	METI named JSW as BWRX-300 supplier (Mar 2026)
PROBABLE	Westinghouse / AP1000	RPV and steam generator forgings	Historical AP1000 forging supplier
PROBABLE	Japanese nuclear utilities	Replacement forgings for restarts	All J-reactors historically sourced from JSW

Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	PE	Fwd PE	ROE	OpM	FCF
IHI Corporation	7013.T	28.94	28.02	23.6%	9.1%	+¥68B
Hitachi	6501.T	26.64	25.37	N/A	11.1%	+¥1,390B
Japan Steel Works	5631.T	35.28	34.31	10.5%	8.4%	-¥19.7B
Yokogawa Electric	6841.T	24.82	20.73	12.2%	14.6%	+¥88B
Fuji Electric	6504.T	19.62	17.13	11.8%	10.3%	+¥51B
Kanadevia	7004.T	19.62	14.09	5.8%	2.0%	-¥12.8B
Organo Corporation	6368.T	26.42	24.47	23.5%	21.4%	+¥19B
Kurita Water Industries	6370.T	38.22	21.67	6.8%	13.7%	+¥25B
Sumitomo Heavy Industries	6302.T	20.46	18.63	4.7%	4.8%	+¥11B

Generated by JPstock-agent | 2026-04-12 | Full Comparison | Supply Chain Map