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Nomura Holdings, Inc.

8604.THIGH

Core · Weight: 10%· Data as of 2026-05-21

¥1,220-2.9%
6-month daily

Investment Thesis

PBR maintained above 1.0x for second consecutive year — governance reform thesis holding. FY2026 full-year: NI ¥362.1B (+6.3%), ROE 10.1% (second year above TSE 8% target), EPS ¥123.08. ¥60B buyback program (Feb 17-Sep 30 2026): first tranche of 14.3M shares completed April 15 — precisely as forecast. AUM ¥136.9T with Macquarie integration. Laser Digital OCC trust bank application filed Jan 2026 — long-term digital asset infrastructure building. Stock ¥1,387.5 with DY 3.67% + buyback = compelling total return.

Risk

1) Dividend trimmed ¥57→¥51 — removed commemorative ¥7; new regular dividend ¥51. DY 3.67% still attractive but lower than 5.9% in old data. 2) Laser Digital crypto losses ¥10B in Q3 FY2026 (October-November 2025 flash crash) — risk controls tightened. OCC application pending, outcome uncertain. 3) Q4 FY2026 momentum softened (Alphastreet) — wholesale revenue cyclical. 4) D/E 15.2x is normal for a broker but amplifies downside in stress scenarios.

Monitoring Trigger

If new buyback announced post-Sep 2026 (when current ¥60B program ends), ADD to 12%. If PBR drops below 0.9x on bad quarter, TRIM to 7%. Watch OCC trust bank application outcome (late 2026). Laser Digital: if Q4 FY2026 losses persist above ¥5B/quarter, reassess digital asset risk.

Key Dates

2026-09-30catalyst¥60B buyback program end date — watch for new program announcement at FY2026 AGM or mid-year
2026-11earningsNomura FY2027 Q2 results — watch ROE trajectory toward 10%+ target; Laser Digital recovery
2026-H2catalystPBR >1.0x sustained for 18 months (since Dec 2025) — potential index re-weighting consideration
2026-H2monitoringOCC national trust bank application outcome — if approved, major US digital asset expansion

Update History

2026-05-21evolveHOLD
View report →

FY2026 results verified: NI ¥362.1B (+6.3%), ROE 10.1%, EPS ¥123.08. April 2026 buyback tranche (14.3M shares) completed Apr 15. Laser Digital OCC trust bank application. Dividend ¥57→¥51 (commemorative removed). DY 3.67%. AUM ¥136.9T confirmed. HOLD HIGH conviction.

pe:10.0x9.78xforward_pe:N/A9.94xpb:1.04x1.06xdiv_yield:5.9%3.67% (¥51/share)market_cap:N/A¥3.05Tsupply_chain:Laser Digital (general)+OCC application, +Laser Digital losses detailkey_dates:Apr 2026 buyback (passed), May earningsSep 2026 buyback end, OCC, H2 PBR

Key Metrics

9.78
PE
9.94
Fwd PE
1.06
P/B
10.1%
ROE
N/A (financial services)
Op Margin
15.2x
D/E
3.67% (¥51/share FY2026, trimmed from ¥57 — removed commemorative component)
Div Yield
N/A
FCF
¥3.05T
Mkt Cap

Supply Chain Evidence

EvidenceCustomerProductDetail
confirmedLaser Digital (subsidiary)Digital assets — institutional crypto products, OCC national trust bank (pending)Laser Digital had ¥10B losses in Q3 FY2026 (Oct-Nov 2025 flash crash). Risk controls tightened. OCC national trust bank application filed Jan 27, 2026 — would enable custody, spot trading, staking in US under federal oversight. Nomura remains committed to digital assets long-term.[source](2026-02-02)
confirmedKomainu (JV Nomura/Ledger/CoinShares)Regulated digital asset custody for institutional investorsKomainu received Dubai VARA license. Raised $75M from Blockstream Capital Partners Jan 2025. Separate from Laser Digital trust bank application.[source](2026-02)
confirmedMacquarie Asset Management (acquired)~¥136.9T AUM — equities, fixed income, multi-asset (US/European public asset management)Macquarie US/EUR public asset management acquisition completed. AUM ¥136.9T as of March 31, 2026 per FY2026 full-year results. Wealth Management segment net revenue ¥487.9B (+growth).[source](2026-05)

Sources & References

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Peer Comparison

CompanyPEFwd PEROEOp MarginFCF
Nomura Holdings, Inc.9.789.9410.1%N/A (financial services)N/A
TIS Inc.15.115.314.9%12.6%N/A
JFE Holdings, Inc.10.54.93.1%2.9%N/A
Mitsubishi Corporation14.5138.5%1.8%N/A
ITOCHU Corporation1513.814.2%5.8%N/A
Daiwa Securities Group Inc.13.1N/A9.3%N/AN/A