ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd.
7224.THIGHSatellite · Weight: 12%· Data as of 2026-05-05
Investment Thesis
Only amphibious aircraft manufacturer globally (US-2). Arms export three principles revised April 21, 2026 — Japan scrapped 5-category restriction; India confirmed as eligible export country (17-nation list). Unit 9 delivered Dec 2024, Unit 10 on order at ¥21.9B. JMSDF order backlog ¥349.7B (+11% YoY through Dec 2025). India wet lease RFI (4 aircraft, Jan 2026). Pentagon NDAA FY2026 authorized 3-year INDOPACOM seaplane pilot program (Dec 2025). XU-MII unmanned amphibious demonstrator first flight Oct 2, 2025. New CEO Takashi Kunihara since April 1, 2026. MHI supplies main wings — CRITICAL: MHI flagged desire to exit after Unit 10.
Risk
1) MHI supply chain constraint: MHI flagged exit desire after Unit 10 — hard production cap at 2/year unless renegotiated. 2) India wet lease price gap: US-2 at $115M+/unit vs competitor Albatross 2.0 at ~$25M/unit — 4-5x disadvantage. 3) CONCEPT STOCK RISK: Aircraft is 15% of revenue; stock at ¥2,594 is 73% above analyst consensus target ¥1,500. 4) FCF -¥11.0B. 5) Arms export deals: 2-3 year minimum timeline.
Monitoring Trigger
May 8 FY2025 full-year results: FY2026 initial guidance (key number) + management export pipeline comments + backlog update. If FY2026 OP guidance >¥16B AND export LOI announced, ADD to 15%. If no concrete export progress by end FY2026 (Mar 2027), TRIM — stock likely reverts toward ¥1,500. MHI supply chain: watch for Unit 11+ supply arrangement.
Key Dates
Update History
Arms export liberalization imminent (Apr 2026). India wet lease RFI (4 aircraft). Pentagon NDAA authorized. PE corrected 19.6→16.0. Filled all N/A metrics. Thesis UPGRADED.
Added MHI supply chain link. No metric changes.
Arms export revision confirmed Apr 21 (5-category scrapped, India eligible). India wet lease at price disadvantage ($115M vs $25M competitor). MHI supply constraint for Units 11+ flagged. Market cap ¥165→¥181.6B. New CEO Apr 1. XU-MII first flight Oct 2025. Analyst consensus ¥1,500 vs ¥2,594 current — concept-stock premium risk.
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special-Purpose Trucks | ¥80B | 40% | Garbage trucks, pump trucks — revenue stability |
| Aircraft (US-2) | ¥30B | 15% | US-2 amphibious aircraft for JMSDF (~2/year) |
| Parking Systems | ¥45B | 23% | Automated parking — growth designated |
| Industrial Machinery | ¥40B | 20% | Fluid equipment — EV weakness |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | JMSDF | US-2 amphibious aircraft — Unit 9 delivered Dec 2024, Unit 10 on order ¥21.9B | Sole supplier ~2/year. MHI supplies main wings but flagged exit desire after Unit 10 — CRITICAL supply chain risk for Units 11+.[source](2024-12) |
| probable | India MoD (pending — wet lease) | US-2 wet lease (4 aircraft, 4-year) | RFI issued Jan 2026, responses due Mar 5. Arms export rules now enable it (Apr 21 2026). BUT: US-2 $115M+/unit vs competitor Apogee/Albatross 2.0 at ~$25M/unit — 4-5x price disadvantage.[source](2026-01) |
| probable | US DoD/INDOPACOM (pending) | Seaplane leasing for Pacific operations | NDAA FY2026 authorized 3-year pilot program (Dec 18 2025). No solicitation issued yet. US-2 primary cited candidate. Production constraint: 2/year max + MHI concern.[source](2025-12) |
| confirmed | MHI (supply chain — risk) | Main wing assemblies for US-2 | MHI committed through Unit 10. Flagged unprofitability and desire to exit after Unit 10. Requires renegotiation or alternative supplier for Units 11+.(2024-2025) |
Sources & References
Peer Comparison
| Company | PE | Fwd PE | ROE | Op Margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. | 40.1 | 40.24 | 12.2% | 8.7% | +¥300B |
| ShinMaywa Industries, Ltd. | 16.5 | 18 | 8.18% | 4.5% | -¥11.0B |
| Tokyo Keiki | ~29.7 (actual FY2025 on ¥181 EPS; StockAnalysis shows 19.29x but uses stale FY2024 data) | 22.3 | ~7% (FY2025 actual; StockAnalysis 11.89% is stale FY2024) | ~4.6% (FY2025: OP ¥2.83B est. / Rev ¥61.5B) | N/A |
| ACSL Ltd. | N/A | N/A | -77.7% | -71% | -¥1.3B |
| The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. | 33.5 | 31.1 | 9.09% | 8.4% | -¥19.7B |
| SKY Perfect JSAT Holdings Inc. | 43.7 | 35 | 4.5% | 10% | +¥30B (est.) |
| Howa Machinery, Ltd. | 10.3 | 11 | 6.5% | 5.5% | +¥1B (est.) |