Nuclear Theme — Full 14-Stock Cross-Validation & Comparison
2026-04-21 14:00 · 4.7 KB
Time: 14:00
Date: 2026-04-21
Type: Evolve — full financial DD refresh + comparison across all stocks
Stocks: 14 (9 original + 5 new from T-glass method)
Data source: StockAnalysis.com (Apr 2026)
Complete Comparison Table
| # | Ticker | Company | Conv | Moat | PE | Fwd PE | PB | ROE% | OpMar% | D/E | Yield% | Nuc% | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6368.T | Organo | HIGH | ★★★★★ | 25.2 | 23.3 | 5.43 | 23.5 | 21.4 | 0.24 | 1.20 | 25-30 | 16/20 |
| 2 | 5631.T | Japan Steel Works | HIGH | ★★★★★ | 32.7 | 31.1 | 3.28 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 0.34 | 1.02 | 30-40 | 14/20 |
| 3 | 7013.T | IHI | HIGH | ★★★★ | 27.6 | 26.8 | 5.65 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 1.08 | 0.64 | 15-20 | 14/20 |
| 4 | 6841.T | Yokogawa Electric | HIGH | ★★★★ | 24.2 | 20.4 | 2.72 | 12.2 | 14.6 | 0.05 | 1.18 | 10-15 | 14/20 |
| 5 | 6492.T | Okano Valve | MED | ★★★★★ | 21.6 | N/A | 1.77 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 70-80 | 15/20 |
| 6 | 6504.T | Fuji Electric | MED | ★★★ | 20.3 | 17.7 | 2.19 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 0.13 | 1.52 | 10-15 | 13/20 |
| 7 | 5310.T | Toyo Tanso | MED | ★★★★ | 23.2 | 23.8 | 1.30 | 5.7 | 14.6 | 0.06 | 2.42 | 20-30 | 13/20 |
| 8 | 6501.T | Hitachi | MED | ★★★★ | 28.5 | 27.2 | 3.54 | 13 | 11.1 | 0.16 | 0.89 | 3-5 | 12/20 |
| 9 | 6370.T | Kurita Water | MED | ★★★★ | 38.4 | 21.8 | 2.53 | 6.8 | 13.7 | 0.32 | 1.39 | 15-20 | 12/20 |
| 10 | 6302.T | Sumitomo Heavy | MED | ★★★ | 20.6 | 18.8 | 0.92 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 0.37 | 2.83 | 10-15 | 11/20 |
| 11 | 7004.T | Kanadevia | LOW | ★★ | 19.8 | 14.2 | 1.10 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.88 | 2.08 | 5-10 | 9/20 |
| 12 | 5406.T | Kobe Steel | LOW | ★★ | 8.7 | 8.5 | 0.59 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 0.65 | 4.14 | 3-5 | 10/20 |
| 13 | 6361.T | Ebara | LOW | ★★★ | 30.9 | 25.4 | 4.49 | 15.8 | 12.1 | 0.43 | 1.34 | 5-8 | 9/20 |
| 14 | 4888.T | Stella Pharma | LOW | ★★ | N/A | N/A | 9.04 | -9.8 | -23.6 | 0.29 | 0 | 90-100 | 9/20 |
Scoring Method
Each stock rated 1-5 on four dimensions (max 20):
- Financial Quality: ROE, margins, balance sheet strength
- Nuclear Purity: % of revenue from nuclear
- Moat Depth: market share, replaceability, switching costs
- Valuation: PE relative to growth, risk/reward
HIGH Conviction — Why These 4
Organo (6368.T) — Score 16/20
Best financials in the group. ROE 23.5%, OpMar 21.4% are exceptional for an industrial. Monopoly on BWR condensate water treatment (IFD technology in ALL BWR plants). 25-30% nuclear exposure is meaningful without being binary. Concern: PB 5.43 and +144% 52w run means premium already priced.
Japan Steel Works (5631.T) — Score 14/20
Strongest moat. ~80% global share in ultra-large nuclear forgings. If Muroran goes offline, Western nuclear new-build stops. Revenue +23% YoY. Concern: PE 32.7x is rich for a cyclical industrial with 10.5% ROE.
IHI (7013.T) — Score 14/20
ROE 23.6% matches Organo. Revenue +23% YoY. Nuclear + aerospace + defense triple exposure. X-energy MOU, NuScale preferred manufacturer. Concern: D/E 1.08 is highest in group, Altman Z 1.88 borderline.
Yokogawa (6841.T) — Score 14/20
Best risk/reward. Fwd PE 20.4x (cheapest HIGH conviction). D/E 0.05 (fortress). Gross margin 46.7% (pricing power). Exclusive DPCS for Rolls-Royce SMR global fleet. Concern: nuclear only 10-15% of revenue.
Changes From Previous DD
| Stock | Previous | Now | Why Changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organo | HIGH | HIGH | Confirmed — best financials validate thesis |
| IHI | MEDIUM | HIGH | ROE 23.6% + revenue growth justified upgrade |
| JSW | HIGH | HIGH | Confirmed — moat is world-class |
| Yokogawa | HIGH | HIGH | Confirmed — best risk/reward in group |
| Fuji Electric | HIGH | MEDIUM | Nuclear only 10-15%, power semi is main thesis |
| Okano Valve | HIGH | MEDIUM | Moat is real but micro-cap liquidity risk, +191% already |
| Hitachi | MEDIUM | MEDIUM | Confirmed — too diversified for nuclear conviction |
| Toyo Tanso | HIGH | MEDIUM | ROE 5.7%, FCF negative — moat is real but financials don't yet support HIGH |
| Kanadevia | MEDIUM | LOW | OpMar 2.0%, D/E 0.88 — poor financials |
| Kobe Steel | LOW | LOW | Confirmed — Z-Score 1.78 distress, nuclear 3-5% |
| Ebara | LOW | LOW | Confirmed — semiconductor play, not nuclear |
| Stella Pharma | LOW | LOW | Confirmed — speculative biotech |
Sources
All financial data: StockAnalysis.com (April 2026)
Nuclear exposure estimates: JAIF supplier list, company IR disclosures, segment reports
Moat ratings: market share data from World Nuclear Association, METI, industry reports