MK Methodology Investigation — What We Learned from 504 Episodes

Date: 2026-05-03

Time: 03:15

Methodology: Deep Claude analysis of 504 Gooaye podcast transcripts (EP1-EP520), keyword extraction + 21-episode deep reading

Summary

Analyzed the complete archive of Gooaye, Taiwan's most influential retail investment podcast (~100K listeners per episode, hosted by "MK"). Extracted 12 systematic methodology patterns, mapped his information source hierarchy, cross-referenced his stock mentions against our tracked universe, and identified where our T-glass method fills gaps his approach doesn't reach.

Key finding: Our T-glass method is independently identical to MK's core framework. But we systematically screen supply chain layers he doesn't cover, finding monopoly stocks (Nitto Boseki, DISCO, Advantest) invisible to his approach.

MK's Core Framework: Supply-Demand Imbalance Detection

MK's investment approach centers on one principle: find supply-demand imbalances in intermediary goods, then trace the supply chain to the bottleneck owner.

His reasoning chain:

1. Detect imbalance (demand surge OR supply contraction)

2. Trace through supply chain to find the bottleneck component

3. Assess whether imbalance is structural (years) or cyclical (quarters)

4. Determine pricing power duration

5. Position accordingly

6. EXIT when capacity expansion normalizes supply

This is exactly our T-glass method — we independently discovered the same approach from the Nitto Boseki case.

12 Methodology Patterns Extracted

Pattern 1: Supply-Demand Imbalance (Core)

Taiwan stocks are mostly intermediary goods — their fortunes rise and fall with supply-demand cycles. Find the imbalance, trace the chain to the bottleneck owner.

• Appears in: every episode with stock discussion
• Example: Murata shifted MLCC production from consumer to automotive, creating consumer MLCC shortage, enabling Yageo to gain pricing power

Pattern 2: Cycle Rotation Tracking

Capital rotates through related supply chain segments sequentially, not simultaneously. Within 5G theme: CCL, then PCB, then thermal, then ABF substrates. Understanding the order lets you anticipate the next segment.

• Appears in: EP62, EP194, EP328, EP375, EP485

Pattern 3: Peak Earnings Trap (MK's Most Repeated Warning)

Record revenue/earnings in cyclical stocks = SELL signal, not BUY. Retail investors see beautiful financials and buy at the top.

• Canonical example: Yageo hit ATH 1310 TWD on July 3, 2018. June revenue was record-breaking. Analysts raised targets to 1500-1800. Stock never returned. By August, stock was 550 while revenue was STILL at records.
• Appears in: EP62, EP103, EP337, EP338

Pattern 4: Capacity Expansion Hangover

When shortage drives super-profits, companies aggressively expand capacity. Once demand normalizes, overcapacity is WORSE than pre-shortage because new capacity was added.

• Appears in: EP62, EP207, EP337, EP194
• Detection: When 3+ major players announce expansion simultaneously, the hangover is coming.

Pattern 5: Insider Signal Detection

Watch what insiders DO, not what they SAY. CEO's ex-wife sold at the top. Sovereign fund got trapped buying the "smart money" narrative.

• Appears in: EP62, EP149

Pattern 6: Global Synchronous Screening

When same-sector stocks across US/JP/KR/TW/CN all move up simultaneously, it signals a potential new cycle.

• Key example (EP194): Passive component stocks globally ALL rose the same day: Vishay (US), Murata/TDK/Taiyo Yuden/Maruwa (JP), SEMCO (KR), Fenghua/Sunlord (CN), Yageo/Walsin (TW).

Pattern 7: Earnings Call Differential Analysis

Prepare with broker consensus before attending earnings calls. Listen for the gap between consensus and management guidance. Alpha lives in this gap.

• Appears in: EP492, EP231, EP375

Pattern 8: 13F Over Local Gurus

Follow 13F filings of world-famous investors rather than local teachers with unverifiable track records.

• Appears in: EP149, EP103

Pattern 9: Buy High PE / Sell Low PE (Cyclicals Only)

For cyclical stocks: high PE = trough earnings (buy), low PE = peak earnings (sell). Inverted from growth stocks.

• Our application: Rohm (SiC, PE 12.4x at trough), SUMCO (loss-making), Kobe Steel (PB 0.59) are potential trough candidates

Pattern 10: Design Change Supply Chain Trace

When a major product changes design specs, trace through the entire supply chain. ABF substrate layers 6 to 12-15 (2x) + area 37.5 to 50mm2 (1.3x) = 3x demand per device.

• Appears in: EP62, EP213, EP328, EP375, EP485, EP492

Pattern 11: Production Cut = Bullish Signal

Production cuts and layoffs are bullish signals for cyclical investors. Prices will bottom and recover.

• Example (EP338): Samsung announcing memory production cuts.

Pattern 12: Sentiment vs. Fundamentals Separation

Don't buy stocks based on political views or emotions. Separate narrative from analysis.

Information Source Hierarchy

Japan Stocks MK Monitors

Cross-Reference: Our Unique Discoveries MK Doesn't Cover

Conclusion: MK goes macro-to-micro (demand signal to bottleneck). Our T-glass method goes deeper, finding monopolies 2-3 layers upstream from where MK typically stops. This is our structural edge.

Contrarian Views Worth Tracking

Data Sources

• 504 podcast transcripts from whatmkreallysaid.com (EP1-EP520)
• 21 episodes deep-analyzed by Claude
• Batch keyword analysis across all 504 episodes
• Cross-reference against our 125-stock, 18-theme tracked universe