AI Photonics / Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — US vs JP Value Chain DD
2026-05-14 03:30 · 14.8 KB
Date: 2026-05-14 | Time: 03:30 JST | Type: Explore — expand Light/Photonics theme with AI-CPO supply chain | Method: T-Glass (trace from global leader backwards, find Japan structural edge)
Trigger
This DD was triggered by a Chinese-language X post arguing that the total market cap of all optical-module companies combined is smaller than Micron alone, despite the optical-transceiver market growing from $16.5B (2025) to $26B (2026) — over 57% YoY, one of the fastest-growing semi sub-segments. The post identifies 7 US-listed picks across the AI photonics supply chain: $SOI, $TSEM, $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $GLW, $NOK. This DD maps those US picks to Japanese counterparts and compares valuations, moats, and catalysts.
Glossary
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| CPO | Co-Packaged Optics — silicon-photonics transceivers integrated directly into AI switch/GPU packages, replacing pluggable optics. Drives the 2027-2028 thesis. |
| NPO | Near-Packaged Optics — interim stage between pluggable and CPO; optics on the same PCB but not in the chip package (2026 H2). |
| EML | Electro-absorption Modulator integrated Laser — InP-based laser used in 100G/200G-per-lane optical transceivers. The bottleneck for 800G/1.6T pluggables. |
| InP | Indium Phosphide — compound semiconductor substrate for laser sources in optical transceivers. |
| OTN | Optical Transport Network — long-haul / metro / data center interconnect optical backbone. |
| APN | All-Photonic Network — NTT's IOWN initiative: replace electrical signals with optical end-to-end. |
| PEC | Photonic-Electronic Convergence — NTT's chip-level CPO precursor; 2nd-gen prototype 51.2 Tbps board-to-board. |
| ZR / ZR+ | Coherent pluggable transceiver standards for 400G/800G long-haul DCI. |
| PAM4 | 4-level Pulse Amplitude Modulation — modulation scheme for 800G/1.6T transceivers. |
The 7 US picks (X post) — mapped to JP equivalents
| Layer | US Pick (X post) | JP Equivalent | JP Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silicon photonics substrate (SOI wafer) | $SOI | No JP pure-play (SUMCO 3436 makes silicon wafers but not pure SOI) | Gap — no investable JP name |
| Silicon photonics foundry | $TSEM (Tower) | No JP foundry pure-play; NTT IOWN ecosystem has internal photonic chip foundry (not standalone) | Covered indirectly via NTT |
| InP EML laser | $LITE (Lumentum) | 6503 Mitsubishi Electric (200Gbps EML, POET 3.2T partnership) | NEW — added in this DD |
| Vertical integrator (laser → module → system) | $COHR (Coherent) | 6965 Hamamatsu Photonics (PMT + SiPM + cameras + NKT lasers, post-2024 vertical) | already covered |
| CPO-era laser supply (InP arrays) | $SIVE (Sivers) | 5802 Sumitomo Electric (60% global InP wafer share + FlexBeamGuide SiPh coupler) | already covered |
| Optical fiber + connectors | $GLW (Corning) | 5803 Fujikura + 5801 Furukawa Electric + 5802 Sumitomo Electric | already covered (3 names) |
| OTN backbone | $NOK (Nokia + Infinera) | 6702 Fujitsu (1FINITY Ultra 1.2T) + 6701 NEC (submarine + Open APN) | NEW — both added in this DD |
| AI photonics test equipment | (no US pick named) | 6754 Anritsu (MP2110A for 800G/1.6T transceivers) | NEW — added in this DD |
| CPO national strategy | (no US pick — NVIDIA / Broadcom-led) | 9432 NTT (IOWN APN, Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC commercialization 2026) | NEW — added in this DD |
Complete Light Theme Value Chain (post-expansion, 12 companies)
Layer 1: Detection / Photon Counting
- 6965 Hamamatsu Photonics — sole Western 20-inch PMT for Hyper-K
- 6856 HORIBA — Raman + mass flow controllers
Layer 2: Light Sources
- 6925 USHIO — UV/EUV metrology + cinema lamps
- 6503 Mitsubishi Electric (NEW) — InP EML lasers for 800G/1.6T (POET 3.2T partnership)
Layer 3: Inspection & Test
- 6920 Lasertec — EUV mask inspection (~100% global share)
- 6754 Anritsu (NEW) — optical transceiver test (MP2110A BERTWave)
Layer 4: Optical Fiber & InP Substrates
- 5803 Fujikura — fusion splicers + hyperscale fiber
- 5801 Furukawa Electric — Lightera 13,824-count fiber + HTS REBCO
- 5802 Sumitomo Electric — 60% global InP wafer share
Layer 5: Optical Transport Network (OTN)
- 6702 Fujitsu (NEW) — 1FINITY Ultra 1.2T (JP $NOK equivalent)
- 6701 NEC (NEW) — submarine cable (400,000+ km) + Open APN
Layer 6: National Strategy / All-Photonic Network
- 9432 NTT (NEW) — IOWN APN + Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC commercialization 2026
Valuation comparison — US vs JP, mapped by layer
| Layer | US Pick | US Stock (recent) | JP Pick | JP Stock (2026-05-14) | JP Discount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InP EML | $LITE (Lumentum) | PE ~60x, Nvidia $2B equity stake | 6503 Mitsubishi Electric | PE 32.5x / Fwd 27.5x | ~50% cheaper |
| Vertical integration | $COHR (Coherent) | PE ~35x, Nvidia $2B equity stake | 6965 Hamamatsu | PE 50.4x (TTM trough) | not cheaper — trough earnings |
| InP wafers | (via $SIVE small cap) | n/a meaningful | 5802 Sumitomo Electric | PE 34.0x / Fwd 23.9x | direct exposure at scale |
| Optical fiber | $GLW (Corning) | PE ~25-30x | 5803 Fujikura | PE 87.7x (post-split, post-rally) | priced fully — see errata |
| Optical fiber #2 | $GLW (Corning) | PE ~25-30x | 5801 Furukawa Electric | PE 65.7x / Fwd 65.8x | priced fully |
| OTN | $NOK (Nokia) | Fwd PE 30.8x | 6702 Fujitsu | PE 18.9x / Fwd 19.0x | ~40% cheaper |
| Submarine + OTN | $NOK | n/a | 6701 NEC | PE 19.95x / Fwd 18.2x | ~40% cheaper |
| Test equipment | (not US-listed) | — | 6754 Anritsu | PE 45.4x / Fwd 37.5x | priced after +168% 52w |
| National CPO strategy | n/a | — | 9432 NTT | PE 11.9x / Fwd 11.6x / 3.6% yield | MASSIVELY underowned |
Key inefficiencies (T-Glass observations)
1. NTT (9432) is the cleanest under-the-radar play. PE 11.9x with 3.6% dividend yield and exclusive IOWN/Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC commercialization slated for 2026 H2. Stock -2% 52w = zero photonics-rally premium priced in. If IOWN/Innovative Devices is ever carved out for IPO, the photonic slice gets re-rated to LITE/COHR multiples (5-10x current).
2. Fujitsu (6702) is the JP $NOK at 60% the multiple. 1FINITY Ultra Optical does 1.2T per wavelength (Nokia's PSE-6s does 1.2T) — comparable tech, half the valuation, no broker coverage on the photonics angle.
3. Mitsubishi Electric (6503) is the cheapest InP EML exposure globally. PE 32.5x vs Lumentum PE ~60x. POET partnership for 3.2T optical engines = real CPO supply-chain integration, not just narrative. Trade-off: conglomerate discount (defense, FA, HVAC dilute the photonics pure-play angle).
4. Anritsu (6754) is the "test-shovels" play already priced. +168% 52w means most of the easy money is gone. But every transceiver shipped tests on this — secular demand, no design risk. Hold not buy.
5. The optical fiber names (5801/5803) are PEAK-EARNINGS RISK after their +713%/+949% 52w rallies. See errata in light_companies.json — both had stock splits + are trading at PE 65-88x on company guidance. Trim, not add.
US picks NOT covered by JP equivalents
| US Pick | Why no JP equivalent |
|---|---|
| $SOI (Soitec — silicon-on-insulator substrate) | No JP pure-play. SUMCO (3436.T) makes silicon wafers but not SOI; Shin-Etsu (4063.T) does some SOI as a sub-segment but is a much broader semiconductor materials play. |
| $TSEM (Tower Semiconductor — silicon photonics foundry) | No JP standalone foundry. NTT (9432) has internal IOWN photonic chip foundry capacity but it's strategic R&D, not a commercial foundry. |
| $SIVE (Sivers — small-cap CPO laser arrays) | No JP small-cap photonics pure-play. The CPO laser angle goes through Sumitomo Electric (InP wafers — 5802) or Mitsubishi Electric (EMLs — 6503). |
These are GAPS in JP coverage — investors wanting the silicon-photonics-substrate or pure-foundry exposure must use the US names directly.
T-Glass framework — applied to AI photonics
Step 1: Demand signal
- 800G/1.6T optical transceiver market: $16.5B (2025) → $26B (2026), 57% YoY (per X post)
- 800G/1.6T market: $2.5B (2024) → $10.5B (2029), 33% CAGR (per Mitsubishi Electric IR)
- NVIDIA NVL72: optical modules = 20% of total rack value
- Meta OFC 2026: CPO proven more reliable + cheaper + lower-power than pluggables
- NVIDIA GTC 2026: CPO planned for Scale-Up interconnect 2027-2028
Step 2: Supply chain trace (3 phases)
Phase 1 (now): Pluggable 800G → 1.6T → 3.2T transceivers
→ Mitsubishi Electric 6503 (EMLs) + Anritsu 6754 (test)
Phase 2 (2026 H2): Near-Packaged Optics (NPO)
→ Fujitsu 6702 + NEC 6701 (OTN integration)
Phase 3 (2027-2028): Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
→ NTT 9432 (IOWN PEC) + Sumitomo Electric 5802 (InP wafers)
Step 3: Bottleneck hunt
- InP EML lasers — Lumentum's monopoly; Mitsubishi Electric is the only credible non-US-aligned alternative
- Test equipment — Anritsu + Keysight duopoly for 800G/1.6T
- InP wafers — Sumitomo Electric 60% share = the upstream choke
- Photonic-electronic convergence chips — NTT + Broadcom partnership (2026 H2 commercialization)
Step 4: Monopoly check
| Ticker | Layer | Moat rating |
|---|---|---|
| 6920 Lasertec | EUV mask inspection | ★★★★★ |
| 6965 Hamamatsu | 20-inch PMT | ★★★★★ |
| 5802 Sumitomo Electric | InP wafers (60%) | ★★★★ |
| 9432 NTT | IOWN + Broadcom CPO | ★★★★ |
| 6503 Mitsubishi Electric | InP EML + POET 3.2T | ★★★★ |
| 6754 Anritsu | Optical test | ★★★★ |
| 6856 HORIBA | Raman + mass flow | ★★★★ |
| 5801 / 5803 / 6925 / 6702 / 6701 | various | ★★★ |
Step 5: Capacity timeline
- Pluggable 1.6T: design-in 2026, ramp 2027 — Mitsubishi EML, Anritsu test
- NTT 2nd-gen PEC commercialization: 2026 H2 (Broadcom partnership announced)
- Hyper-Kamiokande PMT delivery (running): 20,000 units, data start 2028
- CPO mass deployment: 2027-2028 per Nvidia GTC roadmap
Step 6: Catalyst mapping
- 2026 H2: NTT-Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC commercialization — single biggest near-term catalyst
- OFC 2027 (March): Next-gen 3.2T standards announcements
- NVIDIA quarterly capex: 800G/1.6T transceiver shipment guidance
- Q2/Q3 2026 JP earnings: Anritsu, Mitsubishi Electric, NTT, Fujitsu prints
Step 7: Cycle position
- Anritsu: peak-rally (+168% 52w), PE 45x — late cycle, hold-not-buy
- Mitsubishi Electric: mid-cycle, +126% 52w, PE 32x — reasonable
- Fujikura / Furukawa Electric: peak-rally (+713% / +949% 52w) — TRIM
- Fujitsu / NEC: early cycle, PE 19x, modest 52w returns — best risk/reward
- NTT: pre-cycle, -2% 52w, PE 12x — most asymmetric upside if IOWN gets recognized
Trade construction (T-Glass weighting)
| Position type | Allocation per name | Picks |
|---|---|---|
| HIGH conviction | 12-18% | NTT 9432, Mitsubishi Electric 6503, Lasertec 6920 |
| Picks-and-shovels | 7-10% | Anritsu 6754 |
| Cheap OTN exposure | 7-10% each | Fujitsu 6702, NEC 6701 |
| Pre-cycle InP wafers | 12% | Sumitomo Electric 5802 |
| TRIM (over-extended) | 0-5% each | Fujikura 5803, Furukawa Electric 5801 (peak-earnings flag) |
| Hold (legacy thesis) | 5% each | Hamamatsu 6965, Ushio 6925, HORIBA 6856 |
Risks
- Hyperscaler capex pullback — if NVIDIA / Meta / Microsoft / Google cut 2026 capex, 800G/1.6T transceiver demand softens immediately
- CPO delays — if NTT-Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC slips beyond 2026 H2, the NTT thesis de-risks substantially
- Currency — JP photonics names earn meaningful USD revenue; yen strengthening compresses OPM
- Stock-split timing data quality — see prior errata; Fujikura/Furukawa had splits that StockAnalysis lagged on
- US-JP tech decoupling — if US export controls extend to JP photonics, Sumitomo Electric InP / Mitsubishi EML could face customer-side restrictions
Data Provenance
All on-chain stock data sourced 2026-05-14:
- Live OHLCV: J-Quants API v2
/equities/bars/daily— Tier 1 - Listed-info: J-Quants API v2
/equities/master— Tier 1 - Valuation metrics (PE, fwd PE, market cap): StockAnalysis.com per ticker — Tier 2
- Cross-validation note: Yahoo Finance JP used for company-guidance Fwd PE on names with recent splits (Fujikura, Furukawa Electric) per prior errata
- Supply chain evidence: every entry in
light_companies.jsonhassource_urlfield linking to the actual press release, IR page, or trade-press article
Specific URLs cited inline in light_companies.json:
- POET-Mitsubishi 3.2T optical engine collaboration: https://www.poet-technologies.com/news/poet-and-mitsubishi-electric-collaborate-to-develop-3-2t-optical-engines-for-ai-networks
- Mitsubishi 200Gbps EML release: https://www.mitsubishielectric.com/news/2022/0901.html
- NTT IOWN + Broadcom 2nd-gen PEC: https://techblog.comsoc.org/2026/05/09/ntts-iown-is-finally-evolving-to-an-all-photonics-network-apn-physics-based-ai-for-enterprise-ot/
- Japan-Taiwan IOWN APN activation: https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366609356/Chunghwa-Telecom-NTT-activate-worlds-first-International-IOWN-APN
- Anritsu 60GHz oscilloscope for 1.6T: https://www.bisinfotech.com/anritsu-unveils-60ghz-oscilloscope-for-1-6t-transmission/
- Anritsu-CIG 800G joint demo: https://www.anritsu.com/en-us/test-measurement/news/news-releases/2022/2022-10-26-us01
- Fujitsu 1FINITY Ultra Optical: https://www.fujitsu.com/us/products/network/products/1finity-ultra-optical-system/
- NEC + OCC + Sumitomo multicore fiber trial: https://www.nec.com/en/press/202110/global_20211004_01.html
- NEC Open Optical Transport: https://www.nec.com/en/global/solutions/open-opt/index.html
Outstanding follow-ups
1. Run the actual research pipeline scripts — scripts/research_explore.sh would spawn a Claude subprocess; since I ran the workflow inline in this session, no subprocess invocation needed. If user wants cron-driven future updates, fix the script's hardcoded /Users/aqua-bancho/ path (typo or different user) and add it to launchd / GitHub Actions schedule.
2. JSON validation guardrail added in separate file scripts/validate_data_json.py + GitHub Actions step — prevents another silent ev_companies.json-style base64 breakage.
3. Per-stock deep DDs for new names (Mitsubishi Electric, Anritsu, NTT, Fujitsu, NEC) — currently each has thesis/risk/trigger/supply-chain entries in light_companies.json but no standalone DD report. Recommend deep DD on NTT 9432 + Mitsubishi Electric 6503 first (highest-conviction picks).
4. Stock-split watch list — Fujikura (6:1, Apr 2026), Furukawa (10:1, pending). Add automated split-detection cross-check in research pipeline to avoid stale-PE issues flagged in prior errata.