Home/Reports/JAPAN AI/SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN: COMPLETE DEEP DUE DILIGENCE

JAPAN AI/SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN: COMPLETE DEEP DUE DILIGENCE

2026-04-18 19:16 · 31 KB

Date: 2026-04-18 (Updated)

Methodology: Fresh research agent -- Dual-approach (Direct Search + T-Glass backward trace), all 13 supply chain layers, StockAnalysis.com verified financials

Universe: 36 stocks across 13 layers + adjacent plays

Data as of: April 18, 2026

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Macro Context & AI Capex Supercycle

2. Phase 1: Stock Discovery -- 13-Layer Value Chain Map

3. Phase 2: Full Financial Comparison Table

4. Phase 3: Per-Stock Detailed Analysis

5. Phase 4: Validation & Recent Catalysts

6. Phase 5: Scoring Matrix & Conviction Tiers

7. Phase 6: Japan vs Taiwan vs Korea vs US vs China

8. Cross-Theme Connections

9. Sources

1. MACRO CONTEXT

The AI Capex Supercycle

The Big Five hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle) will spend over $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026 -- a 36% increase YoY. Goldman Sachs projects total hyperscaler capex from 2025-2027 at $1.15 trillion, more than double the $477B spent from 2022-2024. Approximately 75% (~$450B) targets AI infrastructure. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta each exceed $100 billion in annual capex, with capital intensity reaching 45-57% of revenue.

**Source:** Goldman Sachs, Introl

Japan's Strategic Position

Japan occupies a unique and critical position -- not as a leading-edge chip manufacturer, but as the dominant supplier of materials, equipment, chemicals, and niche components without which no advanced chip can be made:

  • Materials: Japanese firms control ~51% of 300mm silicon wafers (Shin-Etsu + SUMCO), ~95% of EUV photoresists, and 90-100% of T-Glass (Nittobo)
  • Equipment: ~100% EUV coater/developer (TEL), ~100% EUV mask inspection (Lasertec), ~58% test equipment (Advantest), ~75% dicing/grinding (Disco)
  • Packaging materials: Ajinomoto >95% ABF film; Nittobo 90-100% T-Glass cloth
  • Government support: FY2026 METI budget JPY 1.23T for AI/semiconductors; Rapidus ~$16.3B cumulative

Japan Semiconductor Market Forecast

  • 2025: ~USD 48.2B | 2026: ~USD 54.3B (+11.9% YoY) | 2034: ~USD 175.3B (15.8% CAGR)

Key 2026 Catalysts

DateCatalystSource
Apr 11Rapidus $4B disbursement from METITaipei Times
Apr 3Microsoft $10B Japan AI investmentMicrosoft
Apr 1Murata MLCC price hike (8-15%)TrendForce
Apr 1Fujitsu 1.4nm NPU with RapidusMedium
MarFujikura JPY 300B capacity triplingTechnetbook
MarFurukawa Electric $345M cooling expansionTNGlobal
FebTSMC JASM upgraded to 3nmFinancialContent
FebIbiden JPY 500B ($3.3B) substrate expansionDigiTimes
FebNittobo 2028 next-gen T-Glass plansTrendForce

2. PHASE 1: STOCK DISCOVERY -- 13-Layer Value Chain Map

Layer 1: RAW MATERIALS (Silicon Wafers)

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Shin-Etsu Chemical4063.T#1 wafer + PVC + photoresist~30%★★★★★
SUMCO3436.T#2 wafer pure-play~24%★★★★

Combined 51% of 300mm wafers. 50+ years crystal-growing expertise.

Layer 2: SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT

CompanyTickerProductShareMoat
Tokyo Electron8035.TCoaters/developers, etch~100% EUV track★★★★★
Advantest6857.TTest systems (ATE)~58%★★★★
Lasertec6920.TEUV mask inspection~100%★★★★★
Disco6146.TDicing, grinding~75%★★★★★
Screen Holdings7735.TWafer cleaning~57%★★★★
Kokusai Electric6525.TBatch ALD/CVD~70%★★★★

Layer 3: PROCESS CHEMICALS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo4186.T#1 listed photoresist~20% EUV★★★★★
Shin-Etsu Chemical4063.TPhotoresist + silicones~15% EUV★★★★
JSR (private/JIC)--#2 photoresist~22% EUV--

Japan collectively: ~95% EUV photoresist. Molecular trade secrets, not patents.

Layer 4: PHOTOMASK & EUV MASK BLANKS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
HOYA7741.TEUV blanks (only High-NA qualified)>75% vol★★★★★
AGC5201.TEUV + DUV blanks (glass-to-coating)~59% total★★★★
Tekscend429A.TMerchant photomask~40% merchant★★★

HOYA + AGC = 93% EUV blanks.

Layer 5: CMP (Chemical Mechanical Planarization)

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Fujimi Inc.5384.TCMP slurries + polishing>50% poly-Si; 84-92% lapping★★★★
Fujibo Holdings3104.TCMP pads~14% (#3)★★★

Layer 6: IC SUBSTRATES (ABF/BT)

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Ibiden4062.TABF substrates (Nvidia GPU)~18% (#2)★★★★
Shinko Electric6967.TFC-BGA substrates~11%★★★
Resonac Holdings4004.TSubstrate materialsSignificant★★★

Ibiden: Nvidia near-exclusive. Investing JPY 500B over 3 years.

Layer 7: BT RESIN & SPECIALTY MATERIALS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
MGC4182.TBT resin inventor~45%★★★★
Ajinomoto(2802)ABF film>95%★★★★★

Layer 8: GLASS CLOTH / CCL

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Nittobo3110.TT-Glass monopoly90-100%★★★★★
Asahi Kasei3407.TQ Glass for M9 RubinNew entrant★★★

Tightest chokepoint in AI outside ASML. Jensen Huang personally visited Nittobo.

Layer 9: PCB & PLATING

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
JCU Corporation4975.TPlating chemicalsVia-fill monopoly★★★★
Meiko Electronics6787.TAI server PCBsJapan niche★★

Layer 10: CONNECTORS & OPTICAL INTERCONNECTS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Fujikura5803.TFiber optic for DCMajor★★★★
Hirose Electric6806.TB2B connectors~3-5%★★★
Furukawa Electric5801.THeat pipes + fiberGrowing★★★

Fujikura: White House $20B order. JPY 300B capacity tripling.

Layer 11: PASSIVE COMPONENTS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Murata Mfg.6981.TMLCC~40% global★★★★★
TDK6762.TInductors (#1), MLCCTop 3★★★★
Taiyo Yuden6976.THigh-cap MLCCTop 3★★★
Nitto Denko6988.TOptical films, tapeNiche★★★

Japan ~60% global MLCC. 10yr tech lead vs China. April 2026 price hike 8-15%.

Layer 12: POWER SEMICONDUCTORS

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Fuji Electric6504.TIGBT/SiCTop 3 Japan★★★
Rohm6963.TSiC powerTop 5 global★★★
Mitsubishi Elec.6503.TSiC pioneerTop 3 global★★★★

Layer 13: COOLING, THERMAL & PLATFORM

CompanyTickerPositionShareMoat
Nidec6594.TLiquid cooling CDUGrowing★★★
Fujitsu6702.TAI servers, FugakuDomestic★★★
Renesas6723.TMCU/edge AI#3 global★★★★
Socionext6526.TCustom SoCNiche★★★
Keyence6861.TFactory automationNiche mono★★★★

JAPAN'S 7 TRUE CHOKEPOINTS

#ChokepointCompanyShareReplaceability
1EUV Coater/DeveloperTEL (8035.T)~100%Impossible
2EUV Mask InspectionLasertec (6920.T)100%Impossible
3EUV PhotoresistTOK/Shin-Etsu/JSR95%15+ years
4EUV Mask BlanksHoya+AGC93%Impossible
5T-Glass ClothNittobo (3110.T)90-100%10+ years
6300mm WafersShin-Etsu+SUMCO51%15+ years
7MLCC (high-end)Murata (6981.T)40%10+ years

3. PHASE 2: FINANCIAL DD -- Full Comparison Table

All data StockAnalysis.com, April 2026. Mkt Cap in JPY T. Rev/FCF in JPY B.

#TickerCompanyLayerMktCap(T)PE(T)PE(F)PBROE%OpMgn%D/EDiv%FCF(B)Rev(B)52W%Moat
14063Shin-EtsuMaterials12.5726.625.92.8011.525.60.051.573462,570+77★★★★★
23436SUMCOMaterials0.78n/an/a1.20-1.5-0.80.550.95-11410+149★★★★
38035Tokyo ElectronEquipment20.1240.431.010.0426.525.30.001.363982,390+135★★★★★
46857AdvantestEquipment19.9069.139.529.5149.339.70.140.213041,030+396★★★★
56920LasertecEquipment3.7843.645.616.7443.048.70.000.7896251+263★★★★★
66146DiscoEquipment8.0561.549.314.84n/a41.70.000.60n/a425+177★★★★★
77735Screen HoldingsEquipment2.0224.018.74.5619.819.00.011.3245591+133★★★★
86525Kokusai ElectricEquipment1.6149.241.57.5616.418.60.260.5335237+204★★★★
94186TOKChemicals1.1233.630.94.6217.220.00.110.8910237+222★★★★★
107741HOYAMask Blanks9.7239.639.49.3324.220.40.040.54197915+86★★★★★
115201AGCMask Blanks1.2217.614.50.704.76.30.373.66652,060+35★★★★
125384FujimiCMP0.2222.219.82.6812.619.70.212.47n/a67+68★★★★
134062IbidenSubstrates2.6769.843.54.877.613.40.550.21-8398+495★★★★
146967Shinko ElectricSubstrates0.8044.628.52.816.511.80.110.002215+5★★★
154004ResonacSubstrates2.2777.927.43.124.44.31.330.52241,350+425★★★
164182MGCBT Resin0.84n/a24.11.26-1.65.60.372.36n/a740+102★★★★
173110NittoboGlass Cloth0.9625.038.95.6225.917.00.290.43n/a115+647★★★★★
183407Asahi KaseiGlass Cloth2.1113.512.71.02n/a7.30.552.571343,040+63★★★
194975JCU CorpPlating0.1518.217.32.9817.940.40.011.74n/a29+98★★★★
205803FujikuraFiber Optic9.1563.642.817.0031.116.20.230.72n/a1,120+654★★★★
216806Hirose ElectricConnectors0.7124.021.81.878.020.30.022.2726202+43★★★
225801Furukawa ElecCooling3.1159.450.27.9014.94.00.810.37n/a1,270+966★★★
236981MurataPassives8.7646.729.83.357.315.10.021.272391,780+129★★★★★
246762TDKPassives4.8926.123.52.329.510.10.331.421692,390+87★★★★
256976Taiyo YudenPassives0.76124.035.92.242.05.20.501.45n/a353+193★★★
266988Nitto DenkoFilms2.2417.114.22.0312.417.70.001.78911,020+34★★★
276504Fuji ElectricPower1.7420.317.72.1911.810.30.131.54511,180+103★★★
286963RohmPower1.45n/a57.21.56n/a-4.10.431.31-44473+200★★★
296503Mitsubishi ElecPower12.3433.030.72.87n/a6.50.080.903175,680+134★★★★
306594NidecCooling2.7222.715.41.536.35.00.400.001742,620+12★★★
316723RenesasEdge AI5.58n/a21.22.28-2.117.90.500.943641,320+92★★★★
326702FujitsuPlatform6.5121.019.23.2216.910.30.071.332723,590+33★★★
336526SocionextSoC0.3241.323.02.506.06.20.012.76-4185+29★★★
346861KeyenceAutomation15.3236.732.74.59n/a50.90.000.86n/a1,120+9★★★★
354091Nippon SansoGases2.5021.818.22.0610.513.40.731.001521,330+25★★★
366787Meiko ElecPCB0.7142.430.95.2813.69.70.910.42n/a227+401★★

4. PHASE 3: PER-STOCK ANALYSIS (Top 16)

1. Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063.T) -- Materials Fortress

Thesis: #1 wafer (~30%), #2 photoresist (~15%), #1 silicones. JPY 1.25T net cash, D/E 0.05, 25.6% op margin.

Risk: PVC cyclicality; wafer ASP weakness recovering. Trigger: Wafer ASP +5% QoQ.

Supply Chain: TSMC/Samsung/Intel (wafers). AI Exposure: ~55%. Key Date: Q1 FY27 (Jul)

2. Tokyo Electron (8035.T) -- Equipment Behemoth

Thesis: ~100% EUV coater. Zero debt, JPY 418B cash. Rev +33% YoY. 26.5% ROE. FCF JPY 398B.

Risk: China export controls (25-30% rev). PE 40x. Trigger: China rev <15% or GAA tool-of-record.

Supply Chain: TSMC/Samsung/Intel/Rapidus/JASM. AI Exposure: ~90%. Key Date: FY26 results (May)

3. Lasertec (6920.T) -- EUV Mask Inspection Monopoly

Thesis: 100% share. Backlog >JPY 1.4T. 48.7% op margin, 43% ROE, 62% ROIC.

Risk: KLA actinic tool by 2028+. Fwd PE > trailing PE. Trigger: KLA tool launch or Lasertec high-NA win.

AI Exposure: ~100%. Key Date: Q3 FY26 (Feb), high-NA qualification

4. Nittobo (3110.T) -- T-Glass Monopoly

Thesis: 90-100% T-Glass. Capacity full through 2026. Investing $530M. ROE 25.9%.

Risk: Fwd PE 38.9 > trailing 25.0. Taiwan Glass qualifying. Trigger: Taiwan Glass qualification at substrate makers.

AI Exposure: ~80%. Key Date: FY results (May), Fukushima line (2027)

5. Disco (6146.T) -- Dicing/Grinding Monopoly

Thesis: ~75% share. Zero debt. ROIC 60%. 41.7% op margin. Equipment + consumables recurring.

Risk: PE 61.5x extreme. Niche market. Trigger: Op margin <35%.

AI Exposure: ~85%. Key Date: Quarterly results

6. HOYA (7741.T) -- EUV Mask Blanks

Thesis: >75% EUV blanks. Only High-NA qualified. 24.2% ROE, D/E 0.04, JPY 581B cash.

Risk: PE ~40x. Diversified. Trigger: High-NA EUV ramp; AGC/Corning qualification.

AI Exposure: ~35%. Key Date: FY (May), high-NA timeline

7. Murata (6981.T) -- MLCC King

Thesis: 40% global MLCC. April 2026 price hike 8-15%. AI servers need 20K-440K MLCCs. D/E 0.02.

Risk: Smartphone slowdown. Samsung E-M/Yageo investment. ROE 7.3% low.

AI Exposure: ~25% (growing to 35%+). Key Date: Q1 FY27 (Jul)

8. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186.T) -- Photoresist Pure Play

Thesis: #1 listed photoresist. Only pure-play post-JSR. 17.2% ROE, D/E 0.11.

Risk: PE 33.6x. Korea plant 2030. Trigger: Rapidus 2nm resist qualification.

AI Exposure: ~90%. Key Date: FY results, Korea milestones

9. Advantest (6857.T) -- AI Test Leader

Thesis: 58% ATE. 49.3% ROE, 69.4% ROIC. Rev >JPY 1T (+55% YoY). FCF JPY 304B.

Risk: PE 69x after +396%. Late-cycle. Teradyne competes.

AI Exposure: ~95%. Trigger: HBM test rev +50% YoY

10. Screen Holdings (7735.T) -- Best-Valued Equipment

Thesis: ~57% cleaning. PE 24x/fwd 18.7x. ROE 19.8%, ROIC 32%. Zero debt. 1.32% yield.

Risk: Smaller than TEL. Lam competes. Trigger: Cleaning orders > WFE growth.

AI Exposure: ~85%

11. JCU Corporation (4975.T) -- Hidden Gem

Thesis: 40.4% op margin, 69% gross margin. PE 18.2x. D/E 0.01. Direct Ibiden/Shinko beneficiary.

Risk: Tiny (JPY 152B). Revenue concentration. Trigger: Ibiden/Shinko capex acceleration.

AI Exposure: ~75%

12. Fujimi Inc. (5384.T) -- Valued Monopoly

Thesis: 84-92% wafer polishing. PE 22.2x, 2.47% yield. Gaining HBM share.

Risk: Small (JPY 220B). Entegris/Cabot compete. Trigger: Advanced node CMP step increases.

AI Exposure: ~85%

13. Ibiden (4062.T) -- Nvidia's Substrate Partner

Thesis: Near-exclusive Nvidia ABF supplier. Investing JPY 500B. AI substrate rev 3x YoY.

Risk: PE 70x. Negative FCF. D/E 0.55. Trigger: FCF positive; glass substrate threat.

AI Exposure: ~60% (growing to 75%+)

14. Fujikura (5803.T) -- Fiber Optic Leader

Thesis: +654% 52W. White House $20B order. JPY 300B tripling. 31.1% ROE.

Risk: PE 63.6x, PB 17x. Cable = commodity. Trigger: DC fiber deceleration.

AI Exposure: ~45%

15. AGC (5201.T) -- Hidden EUV Value

Thesis: 59% total mask blanks. PE 17.6x, P/B 0.70, 3.66% yield. Conglomerate hides value.

Risk: Semi = small % of JPY 2T rev. Low ROE 4.7%. Trigger: Sum-of-parts re-rating.

AI Exposure: ~10%

16. Asahi Kasei (3407.T) -- Q Glass Sleeper

Thesis: Q Glass wins M9 for Nvidia Rubin. PE 13.5x, 2.57% yield, JPY 134B FCF.

Risk: Conglomerate (JPY 3T rev). Q Glass = tiny part. Trigger: M9 mass production ramp H2 2026.

AI Exposure: ~3% (growing fast)

5. PHASE 4: VALIDATION NOTES

Warning Flags

1. Fwd PE > Trailing PE: Lasertec (45.6 > 43.6), Nittobo (38.9 > 25.0) -- deceleration priced in

2. Negative FCF: Ibiden (-8B), SUMCO (-11B), Rohm (-44B), Socionext (-4B)

3. Negative ROE: SUMCO, MGC, Rohm, Renesas (GAAP)

4. Extreme 52W runs: Furukawa +966%, Fujikura +654%, Nittobo +647%, Ibiden +495%, Resonac +425%, Meiko +401%, Advantest +396% -- mean reversion risk

5. Data quality: Forward PE unreliable for J-stocks per project memory. StockAnalysis.com primary source.

6. PHASE 5: SCORING MATRIX

Criteria: Financial Quality (1-5) + Theme Purity (1-5) + Moat Depth (1-5) + Valuation (1-5) = max 20

#StockTickerFQTPMoatValTOTALTier
1Screen Holdings7735554418HIGH
2JCU Corporation4975544417HIGH
3Fujimi Inc.5384454417HIGH
4Nittobo3110555217HIGH
5Tokyo Electron8035555217HIGH
6Shin-Etsu4063445316HIGH
7TOK4186455216HIGH
8Advantest6857554216HIGH
9Lasertec6920555116HIGH
10Disco6146555116HIGH
11HOYA7741535215HIGH
12Murata6981335314HIGH
13Nitto Denko6988423514HIGH
14Kokusai Electric6525454114HIGH
15Fuji Electric6504423413MEDIUM
16TDK6762334313MEDIUM
17Fujitsu6702423413MEDIUM
18AGC5201214512MEDIUM
19Asahi Kasei3407313512MEDIUM
20Renesas6723324312MEDIUM
21Keyence6861514212MEDIUM
22Nippon Sanso4091323412MEDIUM
23MGC4182234312MEDIUM
24Fujikura5803434112MEDIUM
25Socionext6526243312MEDIUM
26Shinko Electric6967243312MEDIUM
27Hirose Electric6806323311MEDIUM
28Ibiden4062244111MEDIUM
29SUMCO3436154111MEDIUM
30Mitsubishi Elec.6503314210MEDIUM
31Resonac4004133310MEDIUM
32Nidec6594213410MEDIUM
33Taiyo Yuden697613329LOW
34Meiko Elec.678723229LOW
35Rohm696313318LOW
36Furukawa Elec.580122318LOW

HIGH CONVICTION (14+) -- Buy on Dips

Best Risk/Reward:

1. Screen Holdings (7735) -- 18pts. PE 24x/fwd 19x. Zero debt. 1.32% yield.

2. JCU Corp (4975) -- 17pts. PE 18x, 40% margin, zero debt. Hidden gem.

3. Fujimi (5384) -- 17pts. PE 22x, 2.47% yield. Boring but irreplaceable.

4. Shin-Etsu (4063) -- 16pts. JPY 1.25T cash. PE 27x. Fortress.

5. Nitto Denko (6988) -- 14pts. PE 17x. Most defensive.

Monopoly Premium (higher PE justified by moat):

6. Tokyo Electron (8035) -- 17pts. ~100% EUV coater. PE 40x.

7. Nittobo (3110) -- 17pts. 100% T-Glass. PE 25x/fwd 39x (normalization risk).

8. TOK (4186) -- 16pts. Only listed photoresist pure play.

9. Murata (6981) -- 14pts. MLCC king with April price hike.

Expensive but Exceptional:

10. Advantest (6857) -- 16pts. 49% ROE. PE 69x = perfection priced.

11. Lasertec (6920) -- 16pts. 100% monopoly. Fwd PE > trailing PE.

12. Disco (6146) -- 16pts. 75% monopoly, 42% margin. PE 62x.

13. HOYA (7741) -- 15pts. Only High-NA qualified. PE 40x.

14. Kokusai Electric (6525) -- 14pts. 70% batch ALD. PE 49x.

MEDIUM CONVICTION (10-13) -- Size Appropriately

Key picks: Fuji Electric (6504, 13pts, cheapest power semi), TDK (6762, 13pts), Fujitsu (6702, 13pts), AGC (5201, 12pts, hidden value), Asahi Kasei (3407, 12pts, Q Glass sleeper)

LOW CONVICTION (<10) -- Watch/Avoid

Taiyo Yuden (9), Meiko (9), Rohm (8), Furukawa (8)

7. PHASE 6: JAPAN vs GLOBAL -- Per Layer

LayerJapanTaiwanKoreaUSAChinaEurope
Silicon WafersMONO Shin-Etsu+SUMCO 51%COMP GlobalWafers 17%WEAK SK SiltronWEAKWEAKCOMP Siltronic 12%
LithographySTRONG Canon/Nikon 38% DUV------WEAK SMEEMONO ASML (all EUV)
Etch/Dep/CleanMONO TEL/SCREEN/Kokusai----MONO Applied/LamCOMP NAURA/AMEC--
Test EquipmentDOM Advantest 58%----DOM Teradyne 40%----
Dicing/GrindingMONO Disco 75%----------
EUV Mask InspectMONO Lasertec 100%----COMP KLA (dev)----
EUV Mask BlanksMONO HOYA+AGC 93%----------
PhotoresistMONO TOK/JSR/ShinEtsu 95%--------WEAK Merck
CMP SlurryDOM Fujimi 50-90%----STRONG Entegris----
IC SubstratesDOM Ibiden/Shinko 29%DOM Unimicron 22%STRONG Samsung----COMP AT&S
ABF FilmMONO Ajinomoto >95%----------
T-Glass ClothMONO Nittobo 90-100%WEAK Taiwan Glass--WEAK AGY----
BT ResinDOM MGC 45%COMP Chang Chun--------
PCB MfgCOMP MeikoDOM Unimicron/Zhen Ding----STRONG Shennan--
ConnectorsCOMP Hirose 3-5%----DOM Amphenol/TE 28%----
Fiber OpticDOM Fujikura/Sumitomo----DOM CorningSTRONG YOFC--
MLCC/PassivesMONO Murata 40%/TDKSTRONG YageoDOM Samsung EM 18%COMP Kemet----
Power SemiSTRONG Fuji/Rohm/Mitsu----STRONG Wolfspeed/ONCOMP BYDDOM Infineon/ST
Semi GasesSTRONG Nippon Sanso----DOM Air Products--MONO Linde/AL
CoolingSTRONG Nidec/FurukawaDOM Auras 30%+--DOM Vertiv/CoolIT----
Foundry <7nmWEAK Rapidus (2027)MONO TSMC >90%DOM SamsungSTRONG IntelCOMP SMIC--
MemoryCOMP Kioxia (private)WEAK NanyaMONO Samsung+SKSTRONG MicronCOMP CXMT--
MCU/Edge AIDOM Renesas #3----DOM NXP/TI--DOM STMicro/Infineon

Key Insight: Japan and Taiwan are COMPLEMENTARY, not competitive. Japan makes materials/equipment; Taiwan manufactures. If Japan restricts exports, TSMC stops. The AI supply chain is a Japan-Taiwan symbiosis.

8. CROSS-THEME CONNECTIONS

AI/Semi x Restocking: Murata, TDK, Taiyo Yuden (MLCC), Nitto Denko (tape)

AI/Semi x Nuclear: Fuji Electric (power semi + nuclear grid), Mitsubishi Electric (turbines + SiC)

AI/Semi x EV: Rohm, Fuji Electric (SiC), Murata (MLCC), Disco (SiC dicing)

AI/Semi x Defense: Mitsubishi Electric, Fujitsu

9. SOURCES

Financial Data

Macro

Supply Chain

Catalysts

DISCLAIMER: For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Forward PE unreliable for J-stocks. Verify independently.