Deep Evolve — Fuji Electric, Tokyo Electron, TDK

Time: 17:45

Date: 2026-04-19

Type: evolve (deep research — not metric-only)

Stocks evolved: 3 HIGH-conviction anchors (oldest data_date 2026-04-12)

Themes touched: nuclear, ev, ai, semiconductor

Why these three

All three are HIGH-conviction cross-theme anchors with 2026-04-12 data_date (oldest in

the universe). Each has had material news flow since April 12 that changes either the

thesis strength or the near-term catalyst timeline. This is a deep-evolve — not a

metric refresh — covering FY26 guidance, new supply chain links, and catalyst dates.

1. Fuji Electric (6504.T) — HOLD, nuclear + EV dual theme

Metric changes (2026-04-12 → 2026-04-19)

Data caveat: J-Quants PE (27.3x) is meaningfully above StockAnalysis (20.6x).

Per our data pipeline notes, J-Quants annualizes cumulative EPS (e.g., 3Q×4/3) while

StockAnalysis uses rolling TTM. Using StockAnalysis as display value. ROE drop

(11.8%→8.2%) reflects the latest filing annualization gap — will resolve at FY25 close.

What's new (material findings)

1. FY26 guidance raised Oct 30, 2025 — Sales ¥1,185B, OP ¥128.5B, NI ¥89B (all above

prior forecasts). Interim dividend raised to ¥91 (+21% YoY from ¥75).

2. Dec 19, 2025 — Bosch SiC co-development — Package-compatible SiC power modules for

EV inverters. Mechanical compatibility enables faster design cycles and sourcing

flexibility for automakers. This is MATERIAL — it broadens Fuji's addressable European

OEM base beyond Honda.

3. ¥200B capex FY24-26 in semiconductors — Targeting 50x SiC capacity vs 2022 baseline

by end of FY2026. This is the most aggressive SiC ramp among Japanese power-semi

players.

4. Analyst target raised — ¥11,650 → ¥11,920 (17-analyst consensus). Price ¥11,960

roughly at consensus.

5. 30% payout ratio commitment reiterated in FY26 medium-term plan.

Thesis status: HOLD

Core thesis (nuclear I&C monopoly + power-semi dual theme) fully intact. The Bosch JV

is net positive — expands TAM without threatening Honda relationship. Watch Q4 FY25

results (May 12) for:

• SiC capacity utilization (ramp path to 50x)
• Nuclear I&C segment quarterly order flow (restart pipeline)
• Data-center power electronics (Japan AI capex readthrough)

New supply chain links (5 total)

Added: J-Power / Kansai Electric / TEPCO aftermarket (nuclear I&C). Bosch SiC updated

with Dec 2025 press release URL.

Key dates refreshed

• 2026-05-12: FY25 full-year results
• 2026-05-12: Monitoring trigger — SiC/IGBT segment backlog + nuclear I&C order flow
• 2026-06-30: Semiannual rebalance
• 2026-08: Q1 FY26 results (NEW)
• 2026-10: Interim dividend announcement — watch 30% payout ratio progress (NEW)
• 2026-12: Bosch SiC JV first package-compatible module samples expected (NEW)

2. Tokyo Electron (8035.T) — HOLD, AI/semi anchor

Metric changes

What's new (material findings)

1. FY26 company guidance (Dec 2025 reaffirmed) — Sales ¥2,350B, OP margin 24.3%,

AI-related equipment rising to ~40% of sales (from 30% FY25). ¥1.5T R&D committed

through March 2029. ¥240B capex for FY26.

2. WFE market softness — FY26 WFE -5% vs CY26 expected record high. This is a

timing/bifurcation signal: near-term softness, CY26 inflection.

3. China sales trajectory — 42% FY24 → ~35% FY25 → ~30% FY26 target. AI-related

equipment growth is offsetting China decline per management.

4. DRAM/HBM inflection — Large-scale new DRAM equipment investment unlikely until

2H 2026. HBM etching tool demand strong now (SK Hynix, Samsung). This is the key

FY27 upside driver.

5. TSMC 2nm IP leak at TEL Taiwan subsidiary — CEO Kawamoto says limited impact on

TSMC relationship. Watching but not thesis-changing.

6. One major logic customer delayed investment plan to Jan-Mar 2027. This is the

source of FY26 WFE -5% softness.

7. Japan photoresist export curb rumored — China targets 40% self-sufficiency by

2026. Secondary risk to watch.

Thesis status: HOLD

CY26 WFE record + AI mix to 40% of sales + DRAM/HBM 2H 2026 inflection supports premium

multiple. But FY26 WFE -5% and delayed logic capex mean near-term earnings bumpy. Not a

time to add weight until the logic customer timing clarifies.

New supply chain links (5 total)

Added: SK Hynix (HBM etch — probable), Micron (DRAM — probable). Upgraded TSMC and

Samsung detail with 2nm leak and HBM context.

Key dates refreshed

• 2026-05-13: FY25 full-year results + FY26 guidance update
• 2026-05-13: Monitoring — AI mix %, China share %, FY26 WFE outlook
• 2026-06-30: Semiannual rebalance
• 2026-07: TSMC CY26 capex readthrough from Q2 earnings (NEW)
• 2026-08: Q1 FY26 results (NEW)
• 2026-Q4: DRAM/HBM capex inflection (Samsung/Hynix/Micron order flow) (NEW)

3. TDK Corp (6762.T) — HOLD, EV + AI-server HDD

Metric changes

Note: Both PE and Fwd PE moved up — stock price up materially. Market cap rose

~13% in a week.

What's new (material findings)

1. Q3 FY26 earnings (Feb 2, 2026) — RECORD 9M results: revenue ¥1,858.6B (+11.3% YoY),

OP ¥230.7B (+10.4%). Q3 specifically: net profit +26.5%.

2. FY26 guidance RAISED — Sales ¥2,370-2,470B (+12% YoY), OP ¥245-265B (+18.2%). This

is a meaningful guidance raise from prior ¥2,120B.

3. Magnetic Application segment OP +380% YoY — AI-server nearline HDD demand inflection.

HDD head and suspension assembly volumes +8% guided. This is the single biggest

positive surprise and a NEW narrative.

4. Sensor Application +17% growth — Magnetic sensors + MEMS microphones for ICT

(smartphones / AirPods). Apple supply chain confirmed strong.

5. Q4 FY26 outlook WEAK — Guided -8% to -11% sequential decline. Energy segment

-16% to -19% (BEV demand slowdown hit). Sensor -6% to -9%. Magnetic Application

still +6-9% growth.

6. TDK-Bosch JV for Apple sensors in US (Jan 2026) — Advanced sensors and ICs

produced in US for Apple. This is a MATERIAL customer disclosure (previously no

named customer for sensor segment).

7. Restructuring costs recorded for aluminum electrolytic capacitors and film

capacitors. BEV slowdown is the headwind.

Thesis status: HOLD

AI-server HDD head inflection (+380% OP growth in magnetic segment) is a genuine new

driver that wasn't in prior thesis. Offsets BEV slowdown. Valuation gap vs growth

narrowed (fwd PE 20.9→23.7), so the "cheap optionality" angle is weaker.

Watch Q4 print (May 8) vs -8% to -11% guide. If Q4 beats (ICT/HDD offsetting BEV),

thesis strengthens further. If Hungary NdFeB plant names a European OEM in 2026, that

would complete the bull case.

New supply chain links (6 total — biggest expansion)

Added:

• Apple — MEMS mics, MLCCs, sensors; TDK-Bosch US JV for advanced sensors (CONFIRMED Jan 2026)
• AI server OEMs (unnamed) — Aluminum electrolytic caps for high-V AI servers
• Nearline HDD OEMs (Seagate/WD/Toshiba) — HDD heads + suspensions (CONFIRMED)
• Porsche (Formula E) retained; LEM retained

Key dates refreshed

• 2026-05-08: FY26 full-year results + FY27 guidance
• 2026-05-08: Monitoring — Q4 sequential vs -8 to -11% guide; AI-server HDD head ramp
• 2026-06-30: Semiannual rebalance
• 2026-08: Q1 FY27 results — first read on BEV auto recovery (NEW)
• 2026-10: Hungary NdFeB plant — watch for named EU OEM (NEW)
• 2026-11: Q2 FY27 results (NEW)

Global / macro cross-cutting observations

1. AI infrastructure still driving hardware demand — TEL AI equipment to 40%, TDK

magnetic OP +380% on AI-server HDD, Fuji Electric eyeing data-center power electronics.

All three names are AI beneficiaries through different channels.

2. BEV demand slowdown is a real 2026 headwind — TDK explicitly flagged it; EV

supply chain names should be scrutinized for exposure. Fuji Electric's SiC ramp is

still on track (Bosch JV is forward-looking, not current revenue).

3. Export controls still worth monitoring — TEL China down to 30%, but photoresist

curbs (rumored Dec 2025) could pressure broader JP semi supply chain.

4. FY25 full-year earnings window May 8-13, 2026 — All three names report within

5 business days. This is the key near-term catalyst cluster.

Errata / data caveats

Sources

• Fuji Electric — FY26 guidance + interim dividend (Oct 2025)
• Fuji Electric — Bosch SiC co-development (Dec 2025)
• Fuji Electric — SiC 50x capacity expansion
• Tokyo Electron — AI-driven sales to 40% by FY2026 (TrendForce Dec 2025)
• TEL Q1 FY2026 slides — investment patterns shift
• TDK Q3 FY2026 results — record sales, guidance raised
• TDK-Bosch US JV for Apple sensors
• StockAnalysis — Fuji Electric
• StockAnalysis — Tokyo Electron
• StockAnalysis — TDK

Methodology: J-Quants paid plan (107-column fundamentals) for raw financials +

company forecasts. StockAnalysis.com for PE/PB display values (split-adjusted, rolling

TTM). Web research via Claude for macro, press releases, IR decks. All supply chain

links graded CONFIRMED / PROBABLE / INFERRED with dated evidence.