Japan Crypto Supply Chain — Explore Round
Expanding from 2 to 5 names across exchanges, stablecoin issuers, and corporate BTC treasuries
2026-04-24 · 5 stocks · Supply-chain exploration round on the thinnest theme in our universe (Crypto, 2 stocks before update). Traced the Japanese crypto value chain across 4 layers: (1) financial conglomerates / Tier-1 exchanges (SBI, Monex), (2) crypto-infrastructure + stablecoin issuers (GMO Internet with GMO Coin + GYEN/ZUSD), (3) corporate BTC treasuries (Metaplanet, Remixpoint), (4) custody and on/offramp (addressed via supply-chain evidence for each name). New tickers cross-validated against Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Treasuries Net, The Block, Stellar/Anchorage press releases. Pure-play BTC treasuries valued on mNAV (market cap / BTC NAV), not PE. J-Quants fetch blocked in sandbox (proxy 403); fundamentals sourced from StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo, and company IR materials via web search.
Japan's crypto ecosystem in mid-2026 is defined by three structural shifts: (1) Tax reform — 55% progressive → 20.315% flat, with 3-year loss carryforward — expected to meaningfully boost retail trading volumes. (2) FSA reclassification of 105 crypto assets as financial products under FIEA opens the path to Japan-listed crypto ETFs (earliest 2028). (3) A competitive yen-stablecoin race: MUFG's Progmat, SBI + Startale's JPYSC (launching Q2 FY2026), and GMO-Z.com Trust's GYEN (NYDFS-chartered since 2020) compete for institutional adoption. Meanwhile, Japan's corporate BTC holdings crossed 41,600 BTC in Q1 2026 (Metaplanet 40,177 + Remixpoint ~1,431 + Nexon ~1,717), making Japan the 2nd-largest national corporate stack after the US.
Portfolio Overview
| # | Company | Theme | Conv | Wt | PE | Fwd PE | PB | ROE | OpMar | D/E | DY | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SBI Holdings, Inc.8473.T | Crypto | HIGH | 12% | 4.97 | N/A | 0.85 | 30.0% | N/A | 275.0% | 1.8% | N/A |
| 2 | GMO internet group, Inc.9449.T | Crypto | MEDIUM-HIGH | 8% | 26.04 | N/A | N/A | 17.3% | 20.7% | N/A | 1.35% | N/A |
| 3 | Monex Group, Inc.8698.T | Crypto | MEDIUM | 6% | 19.69 | N/A | 1.35 | 7.0% | N/A | 85.0% | 4.5% | N/A |
| 4 | Metaplanet Inc.3350.T | Crypto | MEDIUM | 4% | N/M | N/A | N/A | N/M | 71% (FY26E) | N/A | 0.0% | N/A |
| 5 | Remixpoint, Inc.3825.T | Crypto | LOW-MEDIUM | 3% | N/M | N/A | N/A | N/M | N/M | N/A | 0.0% | N/A |
Portfolio Construction
Stock-by-Stock Analysis
SBI Holdings, Inc.
8473.THIGHCoreCrypto · Weight: 12%
Why this stock
PE 4.97x and PB 0.85x for a company with 30% ROE and +218% NI growth is deeply mispriced. Crypto catalyst (tax reform, ETF pipeline, dual stablecoin distribution) sits on top of a diversified financial conglomerate. SBI is the only entity in Japan distributing both USD (RLUSD) and JPY (JPYSC) stablecoins. Ripple 9% equity stake provides additional upside. Market prices SBI as legacy financial — it's actually a fintech platform.
Why 12%
12% Core — largest crypto position. SBI provides diversified exposure (securities, banking, crypto) with value-stock protection via PE <5x. Largest because SBI is profitable, diversified, and has the most concrete catalysts (RLUSD Q1 2026, JPYSC Q2 2026, ETF filings).
What could go wrong
1) Altman Z-Score 1.04 — distress zone. 2) 11.72% share dilution. 3) Crypto exposure ~15-20% of balance sheet. 4) FIEA reclassification may not take effect until 2028.
Monitoring trigger
TRIM to 8% if Altman Z drops <0.8 or dilution >15%. ADD to 15% if RLUSD + JPYSC stablecoin launches succeed and crypto ETF filing progresses.
What the market misses
SBI is the only institution that can distribute BOTH the leading USD stablecoin (Ripple RLUSD) AND a regulated JPY stablecoin (Startale JPYSC) on a Japanese licensed exchange. That duopoly-within-Japan is not priced in.
GMO internet group, Inc.
9449.TMEDIUM-HIGHCoreCrypto · Weight: 8%
Why this stock
Diversified crypto-infra exposure with profit-making core. Owns GMO Coin (top-3 JP exchange) AND GMO-Z.com Trust (NYDFS-chartered GYEN + ZUSD issuer). FY2025: revenue ¥285.3B (+3.3%), OP ¥59.1B (+19.5%), ROE 17.3%. Crypto optionality funded by stable internet-infrastructure cash flow.
Why 8%
8% Core — second-largest crypto position. Profitable core (20.7% OP margin) protects downside; GYEN/ZUSD optionality protects upside. Smaller than SBI because GYEN is behind SBI JPYSC in adoption; larger than Monex because GMO is more diversified and profitable.
What could go wrong
1) GYEN 2022 de-peg + $6.8M class-action settlement. 2) Crypto revenue volatility. 3) IFRS transition created reporting noise. 4) GYEN adoption lagging Progmat / JPYSC.
Monitoring trigger
TRIM to 5% if GYEN mkt cap <$30M for 4 quarters OR cybersecurity OP growth <10%. ADD to 12% if FSA approves GMO Trust onshore OR GMO Coin hits ATH volume.
What the market misses
GMO-Z.com Trust is one of very few NYDFS-chartered crypto trust companies (alongside Paxos and Gemini) — a license worth 9-figures if FSA Japan approves domestic crypto-trust charters. Current market treats GMO as a hosting company.
Monex Group, Inc.
8698.TMEDIUMSatelliteCrypto · Weight: 6%
Why this stock
Purest Japan crypto exposure with Coincheck NASDAQ listing providing global reach. 3iQ acquisition adds crypto asset management. +72% YoY trading volume growth. 4.47% dividend yield highest in group. Tax reform directly benefits Coincheck users.
Why 6%
6% Satellite — high crypto purity but ROE 7.0% below TSE 8% target; CNCK down 62% from listing. Above Remixpoint (3%) because of diversified crypto holdings company; below SBI/GMO because of weaker fundamentals.
What could go wrong
1) CNCK down 62%. 2) Crypto revenue concentration ~60-70%. 3) ROE 7.0% below target. 4) Yen stablecoin behind SBI.
Monitoring trigger
TRIM to 3% if CNCK <$1.50 or Coincheck quarterly loss. ADD to 8% if tax reform surges volume + CNCK recovers >$4.
What the market misses
Coincheck NASDAQ listing and 3iQ acquisition create optionality for an integrated crypto asset-management platform spanning Japan, Canada, and Europe (via Aplo SAS Paris).
Metaplanet Inc.
3350.TMEDIUMSatelliteCrypto · Weight: 4%
Why this stock
Japan's pure-play corporate BTC treasury. 40,177 BTC (3rd globally) after 5,075 BTC Q1 2026 add. FY2026 guide ¥16B revenue / ¥11.4B OP, 97.5% from Bitcoin income. Targets 100k BTC by end-2026, 210k BTC by end-2027 (~1% of supply). 82% drawdown creates mNAV re-rate optionality.
Why 4%
4% Satellite — high-conviction BTC beta but extreme volatility and dilution risk. Smaller than SBI (12%) because single-asset proxy with no dividend. Size reflects appetite for BTC exposure, not conviction in management.
What could go wrong
1) mNAV compression from 7x to 1.3x. 2) 82% drawdown signals dilution overhang. 3) BTC <$60k triggers funding shutdown. 4) Non-BTC revenue de minimis (~¥400M). 5) FSA FIEA treatment unclear.
Monitoring trigger
TRIM if mNAV <1.0x OR quarterly BTC pace <2,000 OR BTC <$60k. ADD if 100k milestone hit on schedule AND mNAV 1.3-2.0x. EXIT if dilution >30% in single quarter.
What the market misses
Japanese retail has no BTC ETF. Metaplanet is the only large-cap BTC proxy on TSE. If FSA reclassification and TOPIX inclusion align, Metaplanet could benefit from passive flows even before a spot BTC ETF is approved. Cost basis (~$97k/BTC) is actually LOWER than Strategy (~$66k × current inflation-adjusted), not higher.
Remixpoint, Inc.
3825.TLOW-MEDIUMTacticalCrypto · Weight: 3%
Why this stock
Micro-cap pure BTC treasury. ~1,431 BTC with 3,000 BTC target after ¥31.5B ($215M) 2025 raise. ¥34B market cap vs ~¥22B BTC + cash = mNAV ~1.0x, cheapest BTC-per-share in group. BITPoint was sold to SBI in 2023 — this is a pure treasury play, not an exchange.
Why 3%
3% Tactical — minimum satellite size for a micro-cap with thin liquidity. Above 3% creates concentration risk at this market cap. Tactical layer because mNAV 1.0x is attractive but execution risk + dilution overhang cap conviction.
What could go wrong
1) Micro-cap liquidity. 2) ¥31.5B raise not fully deployed. 3) 3rd in pecking order behind Metaplanet. 4) Energy segment de minimis (¥511M Q3). 5) No exchange revenue post-BITPoint.
Monitoring trigger
TRIM if BTC purchases from raise incomplete by end-2026 OR mNAV <0.8x. ADD to 5% if 3,000 BTC milestone hit AND <1.2x mNAV. EXIT if 3,000 BTC target abandoned.
What the market misses
Metaplanet's drawdown distracts attention from Remixpoint, which has ¥31.5B already raised and a 2x BTC growth target achievable in 12-18 months. If executed, BTC/share triples — leverage without derivative risk.
Data Corrections (Errata)
| Ticker | Metric | Original | Actual | Source | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3825.T | BITPoint exchange | Remixpoint owns BITPoint crypto exchange | DIVESTED to SBI Holdings in 2023 | The Block / Bitbo web research Apr 2026 | Remixpoint is now PURE BTC treasury. BITPoint is now part of SBI VC Trade. Any prior thesis framing Remixpoint as 'crypto exchange operator' is outdated. |
| 3350.T | fundamentals methodology | PE-based valuation | mNAV (market cap / BTC NAV) is primary metric; EPS is noisy due to BTC mark-to-market | Metaplanet disclosure + CoinDesk coverage Apr 2026 | Metaplanet must be valued on BTC NAV and premium, not earnings multiples. FY2026 guide of ¥11.4B OP is meaningful but NI is deliberately not guided. |
| 9449.T | accounting_standard | JGAAP | IFRS starting FY2026 | GMO IR results announcement May 2026 | Revenue/NI comparability across FY25/26 limited; management withheld FY26 outlook during IFRS transition |
Methodology
Supply-chain exploration round on the thinnest theme in our universe (Crypto, 2 stocks before update). Traced the Japanese crypto value chain across 4 layers: (1) financial conglomerates / Tier-1 exchanges (SBI, Monex), (2) crypto-infrastructure + stablecoin issuers (GMO Internet with GMO Coin + GYEN/ZUSD), (3) corporate BTC treasuries (Metaplanet, Remixpoint), (4) custody and on/offramp (addressed via supply-chain evidence for each name). New tickers cross-validated against Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Treasuries Net, The Block, Stellar/Anchorage press releases. Pure-play BTC treasuries valued on mNAV (market cap / BTC NAV), not PE. J-Quants fetch blocked in sandbox (proxy 403); fundamentals sourced from StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo, and company IR materials via web search.
AI-generated for research purposes only. NOT investment advice. Generated 2026-04-24.