SoftBank Corp
9434.TMEDIUM-HIGHScore: 52.3Core · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-06-07
Investment Thesis
UPGRADED — Japan sovereign AI infrastructure platform. FY2025 record: Revenue ¥7.04T (+8%), NI ¥550.8B (+5%), FCF >¥600B — all four targets beaten (after two upward revisions). IDC Frontier absorbed April 1 creating integrated DC+AI platform. Key milestones: Tomakomai 50MW Phase 1 on track (FY2026), Osaka Sakai 140MW AX Factory announced, NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 GPU Cloud launching October 2026, Oracle Alloy sovereign cloud live (April 2026), Crystal Intelligence (OpenAI JV) deployed across 2,500 internal systems. FY2026 guidance: Revenue ¥7.5T (+7%), OP ¥1.1T (+6%). Medium-term plan targets OP ¥1.7T and NI ¥700B by FY2030. First dividend increase in 5 years: ¥8.60→¥8.80, targeting ¥10/share by FY2030. Battery JV (zinc-halogen, Sakai plant) adds ¥100B+ revenue target by FY2030.
Risk
1) DC revenue still <10% of ¥7T total — concept stock risk if DC ramp takes longer than expected. 2) D/E ~306% — high leverage, DC/battery capex adds more debt. Closely monitor FCF vs capex. 3) GPU Cloud (Oct 2026) ramp to material revenue unknown — hyperscaler competition (AWS, Azure, GCP) intense. 4) Tomakomai construction labor shortage (Hokkaido) could delay Phase 1. 5) Yen weakness → NVIDIA GPU procurement costs rise (USD-denominated). 6) Zinc-halogen battery (Cosmos Lab/DeltaX) is unproven at GWh scale — FY2030 ¥100B target aspirational.
Monitoring Trigger
ADD to 10% if: DC segment revenue exceeds 10% of total at any earnings, OR Tomakomai Phase 1 confirmed operational FY2026, OR GPU Cloud >50% utilization within 3 months of launch. TRIM to 5% if: D/E exceeds 4.0x without revenue offset, OR GPU Cloud launch delayed past Q1 2027, OR dividend increase reversed.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | GB200 NVL72 Blackwell GPUs for AI Data Center GPU Cloud | NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 deployed in SoftBank Japan DCs. GPU Cloud commercial launch October 2026. IDC Frontier was DGX-Ready DC partner with Grace Hopper Superchip. |
| confirmed | Oracle | Oracle Alloy — 200+ OCI services under SoftBank 'Cloud PF Type A' brand | Formal partnership Oct 2025. East Japan live April 2026, West Japan October 2026. Targets government and regulated enterprise customers requiring Japan data residency. |
| confirmed | OpenAI (via SB OAI Japan JV) | Crystal Intelligence — enterprise AI platform distributed to Japan market | JV launched Nov 2025. SoftBank first deployer (2,500+ internal systems). Reselling to Japanese enterprises. Target: automate 100M+ workflows. |
| confirmed | Ericsson | Cloud-native 5G Core modernization + AI-powered Massive MIMO | Multi-year core network contract March 2026. AI-powered base station at Expo 2025 Osaka (+24% 5G throughput). 5G Advanced L4S trial with Qualcomm. |
| confirmed | Qualcomm Technologies | 5G Advanced/L4S commercial trial — device partner | Three-way trial with Ericsson on SoftBank commercial 5G SA network, Tokyo. 90% latency reduction demonstrated with L4S. |
| confirmed | Cosmos Lab + DeltaX (KR) | Zinc-halogen battery cells + system integration for Sakai factory | JV for GWh-scale zinc-halogen battery manufacturing at former Sharp LCD plant in Sakai, Osaka. Mass production FY2026. Avoids Li/Co supply chain. DC power + external sales target >¥100B by FY2030. |
| probable | Japan enterprises (sovereign AI buyers) | AI DC GPU Cloud + Oracle Alloy Cloud PF Type A | GPU Cloud targets firms requiring Japan data residency. Internal SoftBank deployment first; external launch October 2026. No specific named enterprise customer yet. |