Investment Thesis
Japan-listed lunar-lander pure-play. Mission 2 RESILIENCE reached lunar orbit 2025. Mission 3 (APEX 1.0 lander) targets far-side Schrödinger Basin 2026 under NASA CLPS program. Total M3 payload contract value increased to $86M after $22M Magna Petra helium-3 spectrometer deal. Guidance: FY2026 revenue +31% YoY with 'project income' doubling. Optionality on lunar economy; lottery ticket with one of three sub-orbital-to-surface vendors globally.
Risk
1) Mission 3 landing is still a binary event — first all-Japan far-side attempt. 2) Cash cover: ¥16.8B net assets vs ¥6B+ annual burn — dilution likely before 2027. 3) NASA CLPS program consolidating — ispace competes with Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Draper. 4) US Mission 3 scope creep (Draper added $7.7M) signals schedule pressure.
Monitoring Trigger
Mission 3 landing attempt (2026 — exact date TBD). Success: hold/add (re-rating). Failure or >90 day slip: TRIM 50%. Also watch for US government shutdown impact on CLPS awards, any M4/M5 contract announcements. Dilutive raise >10% of shares at discount: TRIM.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lunar Landers & Rovers | ¥2.7B | 100% | Mission 1 (failed), Mission 2 (orbit reached), Mission 3 (2026), Mission 4-6 in planning |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NASA (via Draper team) | CLPS CP-12 lunar payload delivery | Draper awarded additional $7.7M to ispace as part of CLPS; Mission 3 APEX 1.0 lander |
| confirmed | Magna Petra | Helium-3 mass spectrometer payload | $22M contract signed 2026 — lifted Mission 3 payload value to $86M |
| probable | JAXA / MEXT | Lunar technology R&D | Participating in Space Strategy Fund themes; Moonshot R&D |