Monex Group, Inc.
8698.TMEDIUMScore: 38.8Satellite · Weight: 6%· Data as of 2026-05-31
Investment Thesis
Return to profitability confirmed: FY2026 NI ¥10.9B (vs ¥5.1B loss in FY2025). Japan crypto tax reform (55%→20%) enacted Dec 2025, implementation pending — directly benefits Coincheck's retail user base. CNCK at $2.25 has recovered above the $1.50 monitoring floor. 3iQ integration under Coincheck completed; adds institutional crypto asset management. Dividend ¥30.80/share = 4.8% yield is highest in crypto group. Yen stablecoin project progressing (still behind SBI).
Risk
1) Japan crypto tax reform delayed to 2028 per industry sources — removes key near-term catalyst. 2) Q3 FY2026 Coincheck trading volume fell 25% YoY (¥87.7B vs ¥117.4B) — volume volatile. 3) CNCK at $2.25 well below listing price ~$6; subsidiary impairment risk if sustained. 4) ROE 7.0% below TSE 8% target; company targets 15% but timeline unclear. 5) Stock near 52-week low ¥640 despite fundamental improvement — sentiment overhang.
Monitoring Trigger
CNCK $1.50 floor monitoring trigger: ABOVE ($2.25) — no trim signal. If CNCK drops below $1.50 OR Coincheck Q1 FY2027 reports quarterly loss, TRIM to 3%. If crypto tax reform enacted AND CNCK recovers above $4, ADD to 8%. Watch Q1 FY2027 (Aug 2026) volume data for trend reversal. If 3iQ AUM exceeds $2B CAD, ADD 1% (institutional franchise building).
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | 3iQ Corp (subsidiary, acquired Feb 2026) | Digital asset investment management (crypto ETPs, institutional products) | Coincheck Group completed 99.8% acquisition of 3iQ for $111.8M on Feb 28, 2026; 3iQ is a Canadian pioneer in digital asset investment solutions (BusinessWire Jan 2026, StockTitan Feb 2026) |
| confirmed | Aplo SAS (subsidiary, acquired Oct 2025) | Crypto prime brokerage for institutional investors (Paris-based) | Coincheck acquired Aplo SAS, a registered crypto prime brokerage for institutional investors in Paris (Coincheck Group press release Oct 2025) |
| confirmed | Next Finance Tech (subsidiary, acquired Mar 2025) | Staking platform services | Coincheck acquired Next Finance Tech, a staking platform company; provides staking services across Coincheck/3iQ/Aplo (Coincheck Group press releases) |
| confirmed | Coincheck (NASDAQ: CNCK, subsidiary) | Crypto exchange for retail and institutional clients in Japan | Coincheck listed on NASDAQ Oct 2025; primary crypto trading platform for Monex Group (NASDAQ listing announcement) |