Nomura Holdings, Inc.
8604.THIGHScore: 55.4Core · Weight: 10%· Data as of 2026-05-21
Investment Thesis
PBR maintained above 1.0x for second consecutive year — governance reform thesis holding. FY2026 full-year: NI ¥362.1B (+6.3%), ROE 10.1% (second year above TSE 8% target), EPS ¥123.08. ¥60B buyback program (Feb 17-Sep 30 2026): first tranche of 14.3M shares completed April 15 — precisely as forecast. AUM ¥136.9T with Macquarie integration. Laser Digital OCC trust bank application filed Jan 2026 — long-term digital asset infrastructure building. Stock ¥1,387.5 with DY 3.67% + buyback = compelling total return.
Risk
1) Dividend trimmed ¥57→¥51 — removed commemorative ¥7; new regular dividend ¥51. DY 3.67% still attractive but lower than 5.9% in old data. 2) Laser Digital crypto losses ¥10B in Q3 FY2026 (October-November 2025 flash crash) — risk controls tightened. OCC application pending, outcome uncertain. 3) Q4 FY2026 momentum softened (Alphastreet) — wholesale revenue cyclical. 4) D/E 15.2x is normal for a broker but amplifies downside in stress scenarios.
Monitoring Trigger
If new buyback announced post-Sep 2026 (when current ¥60B program ends), ADD to 12%. If PBR drops below 0.9x on bad quarter, TRIM to 7%. Watch OCC trust bank application outcome (late 2026). Laser Digital: if Q4 FY2026 losses persist above ¥5B/quarter, reassess digital asset risk.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Laser Digital (subsidiary) | Digital assets — institutional crypto products, OCC national trust bank (pending) | Laser Digital had ¥10B losses in Q3 FY2026 (Oct-Nov 2025 flash crash). Risk controls tightened. OCC national trust bank application filed Jan 27, 2026 — would enable custody, spot trading, staking in US under federal oversight. Nomura remains committed to digital assets long-term. |
| confirmed | Komainu (JV Nomura/Ledger/CoinShares) | Regulated digital asset custody for institutional investors | Komainu received Dubai VARA license. Raised $75M from Blockstream Capital Partners Jan 2025. Separate from Laser Digital trust bank application. |
| confirmed | Macquarie Asset Management (acquired) | ~¥136.9T AUM — equities, fixed income, multi-asset (US/European public asset management) | Macquarie US/EUR public asset management acquisition completed. AUM ¥136.9T as of March 31, 2026 per FY2026 full-year results. Wealth Management segment net revenue ¥487.9B (+growth). |