Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
8601.TMEDIUMScore: 34.2Core · Weight: 5%· Data as of 2026-04-28
Investment Thesis
Direct mid-cap peer to Nomura with the same TSE PBR-1 reform tailwind but earlier in its self-help cycle. Completed a ¥50B buyback (46.6M shares) cleanly between May 2025 and Mar 2026 — roughly 2.4% of float retired. Sweeping leadership overhaul announced Feb 2026 (new COO Eiji Sato, multiple new Deputy Presidents, addition of independent outside director Christina Ahmadjian) signals a credible second-wave governance push. Wealth Management is a more stable revenue base than Nomura's wholesale tilt, supporting a higher-quality earnings stream. With dividend yield ~3.8–4.2% on top of buybacks, total shareholder yield is ~6–7%. Conviction is MEDIUM (not HIGH) because PBR is still well below 1.0x and management needs to prove the new team can sustain the buyback cadence post-Mar 2026.
Risk
1) PBR still below 1.0 — the reform thesis is not yet validated by the market. 2) Capital-markets revenue cyclicality — Wealth Mgmt is stable but Global Markets/IB is tied to JGB issuance and equity issuance flow. 3) New leadership team (Feb 2026) is unproven on capital-return discipline; absence of a fresh buyback announcement at the FY26 results would weaken thesis. 4) ISS Shareholder-Rights pillar score 7/10 (worse) signals governance is still a work-in-progress despite committee structure.
Monitoring Trigger
If FY26 results (Apr 27 2026 already released — review presentation) include a ≥¥30B follow-on buyback, ADD to 7%. If PBR crosses 1.0x decisively, ADD to 8% and re-rate to HIGH conviction. If buyback lapses without successor and PBR re-rates lower, TRIM to 3%. Watch June 2026 AGM for board-renewal vote outcomes (Ahmadjian + new COO).
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Japanese retail / HNW investor base (NISA programme inflows) | Brokerage, wealth advisory, investment trust distribution | Daiwa is Japan's #2 securities firm by retail accounts; Wealth Management is largest revenue segment, benefitting from expanded NISA limits 2024+ (Daiwa IR 2025; Nikkei) |
| confirmed | Japanese corporate issuers + JGB market | Equity / debt underwriting, M&A advisory, JGB primary dealer | Daiwa is a top-3 underwriter for Japanese equity and a JGB primary dealer; Global Markets & IB segment generates roughly 30% of revenue (Daiwa Annual Report 2025) |
| probable | Activist-style investor flow into Japanese equities | Prime brokerage, equity research, corporate-access services | Record 56 activist campaigns in 2025 fuel demand for prime/research services; Daiwa's research desk is among Japan's most respected (II rankings 2025) |
| confirmed | Daiwa SBI Digital Asset Co. (JV with SBI) | Security-token issuance and digital-asset infrastructure | Daiwa partners with SBI on tokenized securities platform — early-stage but positions Daiwa for security-token issuance growth (Daiwa IR; Nikkei) |