Tokyo Electron
8035.THIGHScore: 75Semiconductor Equipment · Weight: 12%· Data as of 2026-04-19
Investment Thesis
#3 global WFE. ~90% global share coater/developer tracks. FY26 company guidance: sales ¥2,350B, OP margin 24.3%, AI-related equipment ~40% of sales (up from 30%). CY26 WFE market expected record high despite FY26 WFE -5% near-term softness. ¥1.5T R&D committed through March 2029. Zero debt, FCF ¥398B.
Risk
US/Japan export controls: China share declining toward 30% in FY26 (from 42% FY24). BIS rule tightening + Japan photoresist curb risk. TSMC 2nm IP leak case at TEL Taiwan subsidiary — management says limited impact but monitoring. One major logic customer delayed investment to Jan-Mar 2027. New DRAM capex unlikely before 2H 2026.
Monitoring Trigger
FY25 full-year + FY26 outlook May 13, 2026. If AI-related mix tracks 40%+ AND HBM/DRAM equipment orders accelerate in 2H 2026, hold/add. If China share stays above 35% OR logic capex slips further (delayed to FY27), trim.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Production Equipment | ¥2,271B | 95% | Coaters, etch, CVD, thermal, cleaning |
| FPD Equipment | ¥119B | 5% | Display equipment |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TSMC | Coater/developer tracks, etch, cleaning systems | ~90% global coater share — all N3/N2 passes through TEL. 2nm IP leak case at TEL Taiwan sub (2025) — limited impact per Kawamoto. |
| confirmed | Samsung Electronics | Logic + DRAM + HBM etching/coating equipment | Major customer; HBM etch demand driver for CY26 |
| probable | SK Hynix | HBM etch/deposition tools | HBM AI demand driving etch tool growth — key DRAM customer |
| probable | Intel Foundry | Intel 18A / 14A process equipment | Intel foundry investment resuming; TEL beneficiary |
| probable | Micron Technology | DRAM and HBM equipment | DRAM capex accelerating in 2H 2026 per TEL management |