Kanadevia
7004.TMEDIUMScore: 33.8Decommissioning / Waste · Weight: 3%· Data as of 2026-05-14
Investment Thesis
Pure-play nuclear decommissioning & waste management via NAC International (US, spent fuel casks) and Tousou Mirai JV (TEPCO 67%/Kanadevia 33%) for Fukushima casks. MAJOR CATALYST: Nippon Steel Engineering merger MOU signed Feb 5, 2026 — absorption merger targeting April 2027 completion, creating Japan's largest engineering firm (¥1T+ revenue). Japan's 7th Energy Plan (Feb 2025) formalizes nuclear maximization to ~20% by FY2040; 15 reactors now operating including TEPCO Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 restart Feb 9, 2026 — first TEPCO restart since Fukushima, structurally increasing cask demand. FY2026 earnings were bad (OP -55%) but losses appear one-time (overseas EPC technical issues + marine engine scandal). FY2027 guidance: OP ¥25.5B (+109%), dividend raised 52% to ¥38/share.
Risk
Overseas EPC subsidiary technical losses recurred through FY2026 Q1-Q3 (described as one-time but pattern risk for EPC). Marine engine data falsification scandal: ¥4.6B extraordinary charges, compliance culture not fully resolved. FCF deeply negative (-¥22.6B FY2026); equity ratio deteriorated 31.1%→27.0%. Nippon Steel Engineering merger integration risk: 14-month compressed timeline, regulatory approvals required. Post-earnings surge (+11% to ¥1,407) means valuation now ~11x FY2027 guidance — priced for execution delivery.
Monitoring Trigger
Watch: (1) Merger final agreement target Sep 2026 — if delayed past Dec 2026, reduce position. (2) Q1 FY2027 results (Aug 2026) — confirm overseas env. subsidiary losses are non-recurring. (3) Tousou Mirai cask plant operational announcement — first cask delivery = upgrade trigger. (4) If equity ratio falls below 25% or FCF negative for 3rd consecutive year, cut to 3%.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Environment | ¥280B | 45% | Waste-to-energy, water treatment |
| Machinery & Infrastructure | ¥180B | 29% | Marine, process equipment |
| Decarbonization | ¥120B | 19% | Nuclear casks, pressure vessels, fuel cycling |
| Other | ¥42B | 7% | Real estate, services |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TEPCO | Fukushima decommissioning casks (Tousou Mirai JV, 33% Kanadevia) | JV established Oct 2022. Plant in Hamadori, Fukushima targeting FY2025 operations. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Unit 6 restarted Feb 2026 — TEPCO's first restart since Fukushima, directly increasing spent fuel cask demand. |
| confirmed | US nuclear utilities (via NAC International) | Spent fuel transport/storage casks; DOE ARPA-E Universal Canister System | NAC International wholly-owned US subsidiary. NRC Amendment 10 (Jan 2026). NAC selected as DOE ARPA-E SCALEUP subcontractor ($40M program) for Universal Canister System + deep borehole disposal, Apr 7, 2026. |
| confirmed | Nippon Steel Engineering (merger partner) | Management integration — Japan's largest engineering firm | MOU signed Feb 5, 2026. Absorption merger with Kanadevia as surviving entity. Combined revenue >¥1T. Shareholder vote Nov 2026, completion target Apr 2027. |