Fanuc
6954.THIGHScore: 53.6CNC / Industrial Robots · Weight: 15%· Data as of 2026-05-28
Investment Thesis
Picks-and-shovels monopolist of global manufacturing: ~60% CNC global share, ~25% industrial robot share. Zero-debt fortress. FY2025 RECORD results: revenue ¥857.8B (+7.6%), OP ¥183.8B (+15.7%), NI ¥166.5B (+12.9%). FY2026 guidance: ¥909.6B revenue (+6%), OP ¥212.2B (+15.5%) — issued Apr 25 2026 despite tariff uncertainty. NVIDIA Physical AI partnership deepened Mar-May 2026: Jetson edge AI, Isaac Sim digital twins, voice-command Python codegen, Omniverse factory blueprints. Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Foxconn Fii confirmed using Fanuc-NVIDIA integration. $90M US robot manufacturing investment as tariff hedge.
Risk
1) Section 232 investigation recommendation due May 30 2026 (2 days): 25%+ tariff on imported robots/CNC = ~40% of Fanuc US revenue at risk. 2) Peak earnings trap (AP01): FY2025 ALL-TIME RECORD revenue+OP — PE re-rated 35.6x→45.7x TTM. Classic cyclical top signal. China CNC cycle may be turning. 3) July 9 2026: 90-day tariff suspension expiry, 24% reciprocal tariff reinstatement risk. 4) NVIDIA Physical AI is a future option, not current revenue (<1% today).
Monitoring Trigger
TRIM if: Section 232 tariff >25% imposed (May 30), OR China CNC orders show consecutive -QoQ. HOLD: tariff excluded/exempted, FY2026 maintains ¥909.6B guidance. ADD only if stock pulls back >20% on tariff noise without earnings revision.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robot | ¥279B (9M) | 44.8% | Industrial arms, SCARA, CRX cobots (+21.9% YoY) |
| FA (CNC) | ¥144B (9M) | 23.1% | CNC controllers ~60% global share |
| Service | ¥105B (9M) | 16.8% | Parts, maintenance, training |
| Robomachines | ¥95B (9M) | 15.3% | Robodrill, Robocut wire EDM |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Apple | Robodrill for iPhone machining | Extensively documented |
| confirmed | Toyota / Honda / Denso | Welding, assembly robots | Major auto OEM customer base |
| confirmed | NVIDIA | Physical AI (Jetson + Isaac Sim + Omniverse integration) | May 2026: Expanded partnership - voice command Python codegen, ROS2 support, dual-arm imitation learning, Omniverse Blueprint factory digital twins |