Keyence
6861.TMEDIUMScore: 61.8Factory Automation / AI Vision · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-06-01
Investment Thesis
HOLD — FY2025 full-year DELIVERED; 5th consecutive record. Revenue ¥1.17T (+10.4%, beat analyst forecast by 2.3%), OP margin expanded to 51.0% (from 49.9%), net income ¥445.2B (+11.7%). Most profitable industrial company globally. Dividend raised 57% to ¥550/share; payout ratio now 30%. Market cap ¥19.43T (+28% from April). Fabless model continues to insulate from tariff/supply-chain risk. FY2027 analyst consensus: revenue ¥1.28T (+9.4%), EPS ¥2,007. Caveat: PE 43.64x is elevated; re-rating has absorbed near-term earnings growth. Thesis intact but entry point has passed — hold, don't add at current valuation. Thesis breaks if: China revenue (16%) contracts >20% from tariff escalation, OR OP margin structurally falls below 48% from competition.
Risk
PE 43.64x TTM at ¥80,110/share — not cheap even for this quality. FY2027 EPS forecast ¥2,007 implies forward PE ~40x — premium requires consistent 10%+ growth. China ~16% of revenue at risk if trade tensions escalate. Chinese FA automation players (Hikrobot, Zhejiang Dahua) gaining share in domestic China market.
Monitoring Trigger
FY2025 results DELIVERED (Apr 29, 2026). New triggers: Q1 FY2026 (Jul 2026) — if China revenue grows YoY, ADD to 10%. If PE exceeds 50x without commensurate EPS upgrade, TRIM to 6%. If OP margin falls below 48% in any quarter, investigate. Cognex Q2 2026 results as competitive read.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sensors/Switches | ~¥250B (9M) | ~30% | IV4 with built-in AI (99.8% detection accuracy) |
| Vision Systems | ~¥209B (9M) | ~25% | VS-G (AI + full-image storage), XG-X (edge AI 10K images/sec) |
| Laser Markers | ~¥167B (9M) | ~20% | CO2/fiber/UV lasers |
| Measurement | ~¥125B (9M) | ~15% | LJ-X8000 2D/3D laser profiler, VK-X4000 microscope |
| Safety / 3D Printing | ~¥84B (9M) | ~10% | Light curtains + GX-1000 3D printers (new market entry Apr 2026) |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | Toyota / major auto OEMs | FA vision and sensor systems | Largest industrial automation customer base in Japan. Direct sales model creates switching costs. Auto OEM demand driver for EV/hybrid production lines. |
| confirmed | Semiconductor fabs (TSMC, Samsung, Intel reshoring) | VS Series AI vision systems for wafer/PCB inspection | Keyence VS Series widely used in semiconductor inspection applications. CHIPS Act fab buildouts (TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, Intel Ohio) driving Americas growth (+14% overseas in FY2025). |
| confirmed | US reshoring factories | Full FA sensor/vision/measurement suite | Americas segment +14% FY2025 full-year. CHIPS Act fabs + EV plants + general manufacturing reshoring. Americas now ~14% of total revenue and growing fastest. |
| confirmed | Asian manufacturing (Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia) | FA sensors, vision systems, measurement — full product suite | Asia segment +18.9% in FY2025 Q3; China ~16% of revenue with continued growth despite macro headwinds. Japan domestic ~50% of revenue. |