Investment Thesis
FY2026 results confirmed structural improvement: adj. OP +27.1% to ¥390.5B, adj. margin 11.2% (first time >10% in history), core FCF +24.1% to ¥290B. Sovereign AI infrastructure ramp is underway — NVIDIA Blackwell servers at Kasashima (March 2026), FugakuNEXT prime contractor (RIKEN), MONAKA 1.4nm chip via Rapidus (NEDO funds ~2/3 of ¥58B). Net cash ¥317B + ¥150B buyback (5.76% shares). Mid-term management plan due May 28 may catalyze re-rating toward >20% ROE target.
Risk
1) Revenue stagnation: -1.3% FY2026, +0.2% guided FY2027 — AI uplift not yet visible in topline. 2) PE re-rated from 12.9x to ~18x — cheap entry gone; now quality/momentum story. 3) NI ¥449B includes ~¥146B divestiture gains (not recurring); actual recurring NI ~¥303B, FY2027 guided ¥310B. 4) UK Post Office Horizon liability: £0 contributed toward ~£2B redress exposure — no financial provision.
Monitoring Trigger
May 28 mid-term plan: if >20% ROE target + AI revenue breakout guidance confirmed, ADD to 12%. If FY2027 revenue guidance raised above ¥3,600B (>3% growth), ADD to 12%. If ROE stays <15% for two consecutive quarters, TRIM to 8%. If Horizon liability provision announced, assess P&L impact before action.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | NVIDIA | Sovereign AI servers — NVIDIA HGX B300 (Blackwell) + RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell | Device assembly at Kasashima Plant started March 2026; PCB assembly follows June 2026. NVLink Fusion integration for MONAKA+NVIDIA full-stack. |
| confirmed | RIKEN (Japan) | FugakuNEXT zettascale supercomputer (Fujitsu prime contractor) | Contract June 2025; basic design through Feb 2026. Hybrid ARM+NVIDIA GPU. Target ~2030 operation. |
| confirmed | NEDO / METI (Japan government) | FUJITSU-MONAKA 1.4nm AI chip — sovereign compute via Rapidus | NEDO funds ~2/3 of ¥58B NPU cost. Demand-creation strategy for Rapidus domestification of AI silicon. |
| confirmed | Japan AI Foundation (SoftBank, NEC, Sony, Honda consortium) | Sovereign AI infrastructure provider | Fujitsu is key infrastructure partner for Japan's sovereign AI model initiative (1T-parameter). Nikkei Asia, April 2026. |
| confirmed | UK Post Office (RISK) | Horizon IT system extension — reputational liability | £41M extension to March 2027. Fujitsu paid £0 toward ~£2B redress. No financial provision. Lost Centrica deal. UK parliament scrutiny ongoing. |