DISCO Corp
6146.TMEDIUMScore: 55.3Dicing / Grinding · Weight: 8%· Data as of 2026-05-03
Investment Thesis
~70%+ global dicing/grinding share. Every AI package (CoWoS, HBM, chiplet) needs DISCO. FY2026: 6th consecutive record — ¥436.9B revenue, 42.3% OP margin. Q1 FY2027 re-acceleration guided: +18% revenue, +21.8% OP — quarterly shipment record forecast. CoWoS expanding 3.7x (35k→130k wpm by end 2026) implies ~27-36 additional DISCO dicers for TSMC alone. HBM supercycle: $54.6B market 2026 (+58% YoY), HBM grinding monopoly confirmed. New opportunity: Intel glass substrate singulation (proprietary 'pull-back method'). Dividend hiked 22% (¥413→¥505) — management confidence signal.
Risk
P/B ~13.4x approaching historical all-time peak of 15.47x — priced for perfection, no valuation cushion. FCF yield ~0.85% — any demand deceleration means multiple compression risk. Revenue growth decelerating 28% (FY2025) → 11% (FY2026); Q1 FY2027 re-accel is 1 quarter, not confirmed trend. Analyst consensus target ~¥76,950 barely above current ~¥72-76k — limited sell-side upside. Chinese entrants (CETC, Han's Laser) targeting mature-node dicing with 40-50% price discounts + government subsidies. Capex doubled ¥33B→¥70B — if orders moderate, FCF deteriorates sharply.
Monitoring Trigger
Q1 FY2027 results (around July 2026): confirm +18%/+21.8% guided revenue/OP re-acceleration. TSMC CoWoS capacity milestones: on track to 130k wpm by end 2026? HBM4 volume ramp at SK Hynix/Samsung — any dicing complexity/spec changes requiring new DISCO tools. If P/B exceeds 15.47x historical peak — reduce position. Intel glass substrate: first volume order announcement.
Key Dates
Key Metrics
Business Segments
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dicing Saws | ¥234B | 55% | Die singulation for advanced packaging |
| Grinding/Polishing | ¥127B | 30% | Wafer thinning for 3D IC stacking |
| Blades/Consumables | ¥64B | 15% | High-margin recurring |
Supply Chain Evidence
| Evidence | Customer | Product | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| confirmed | TSMC | Dicing for CoWoS packaging | Est. 70%+ global dicing share; NVIDIA H100/B100 packages |
| confirmed | SK Hynix / Samsung | HBM die singulation | All HBM production requires DISCO dicing |
| inferred | ASE / Amkor | OSAT advanced packaging | Leading OSATs use DISCO equipment |
| confirmed | Intel | Glass substrate singulation (SeWaRe method) | DISCO 'pull-back method' is proprietary solution for glass substrate cutting (SeWaRe defect elimination). Intel advancing glass substrates + EMIB packaging — DISCO confirmed as key equipment supplier. |